2025 NCAA Women’s Tournament Picks & Predictions (Friday)

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As the NCAA Women’s Tournament progresses, I am sure I'll cover Texas and Notre Dame. While I have included Notre Dame in this best bets article, I'm not quite yet ready to target the Longhorns.

However, along with Notre Dame, I am intrigued by a Big Ten-Big 12 matchup and a Big Ten-ACC contest for this Regional 3 – Birmingham best bets article

2025 NCAA Tournament March Madness Bracket Strategy & Betting Picks>>

March Madness Pick'Em Contest

Regional 3 – Birmingham Best Bets (Saturday)

No. 6 Michigan Wolverines (-2.5) vs. No. 11 Iowa State Cyclones (+122) | O/U 148.5

  • Date: Friday, March 21
  • Start: 11:30 a.m. ET
  • Coverage: ESPN2

I see a lot of experts going with Michigan to win and talk about the rest advantage. But they don't take into consideration the rust factor from a longer time off. Plus, Iowa State is more likely to heat up faster, having played more recently. Iowa State dominated Princeton in the paint with Audi Crooks and will likely do the same versus Michigan. Crooks recorded 12 of her 27 points in the fourth quarter against Princeton.

Michigan will struggle to match up with Crooks and could have a hard time containing her in the paint. The Wolverines will try to take her out of the game by spreading the court and shooting from three-point range early often. The Wolverines have three players averaging double-digit points per game: Olivia Olson (16.2), Syla Swords (16.1) and Jordan Hobbs (13.4).

That can make it harder to contain an offense, but it can also make it just as hard to kickstart it.

Iowa State's poor perimeter defense concerns me, but I like Iowa State over Michigan in other areas enough that this game will come down to the wire, with the winner being whoever has the ball last. Either way, Iowa State wins against the spread (ATS).

Pick: Iowa State +2.5 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish  (-20000) vs. No. 14 Stephen F. Austin Ladyjacks (+31.5) | O/U 152.5

  • Date: Friday, March 21
  • Start: 2 p.m. ET
  • Coverage: ESPN

Being you start questioning my sanity - no, I am not saying Notre Dame will become the first No. 3 seed in NCAA Women’s Tournament history to fall in the first round. However, I am questioning whether they can dominate the game as expected. You know, like the Notre Dame team from midseason would.

Right after ascending to the No. 1 spot in polls, things started to fall apart for the Fighting Irish. They lost a double-overtime game to North Carolina State (104-95), followed that up with an 86-81 loss to Florida State and then lost to Duke in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) Tournament semis, 61-56.

Stephen F. Austin is coming in so hot they probably feel like they could take on anyone. The Ladyjacks will take a 15-game win streak into their first-round matchup with Notre Dame. In that stretch, they didn't play anyone worth bragging about, but there is something to be said about the confidence that comes with winning.

Both teams have solid offenses and decent defenses. All things equal, Notre Dame wins in a landslide. But the Fighting Irish have not been clicking. Things have not been so harsh they are in danger of losing this game, but I'd be shocked if they were to cover the spread. If you don't like taking the underdog here, give the over some serious thought.

Pick: Stephen F. Austin +31.5 (-110 at ESPN Bet)

No. 7 Louisville Cardinals (-1.5) vs. No. 10 Nebraska Cornhuskers (+115) | O/U 145.5

  • Date: Friday, March 21
  • Start: 6 p.m. ET
  • Coverage: ESPN

Louisville is a highly regarded team, but the Cardinals are limping into the NCAA Tournament, having lost three of their last five games. Those losses were not to just any old teams. Three of the losses were to N0. 9 North Carolina, No. 3 Notre Dame and No. 11 Duke in the ACC tournament quarter-final. On the offensive end, they are a decent team, averaging around 72 points per game.

But they are unimpressive on the defensive end (No.243 in the nation, 67.3 points per game allowed). Nebraska was up and down late in the year, winning three of their last four but only five of their last 11. On the offensive end, they were a little better (76 points per game), but on the defensive, they allowed more than Louisville (68.4 points per game).

I'm going with Nebraska because I think Alexis Markowski gives the Cornhuskers an edge in the paint. Louisville has not been productive on the offensive end in recent games and I don't think they'll pick it up in this game.

Pick: Nebraska Moneyline (+115 at ESPN Bet)