2025 NCAA Women’s Tournament Picks & Predictions (Round 1)

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USC and UConn are the toast of Regional 4 - Spokane, but there are several other games worth betting on in the first round, including a few upsets. I'm not talking about history-making upsets like UNC Greensboro beating USC or UConn losing to Arkansas State.

The three I have in mind are my best bets in the first round for Regional 4 - Spokane.

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Regional 4 – Spokane Best Bets (Round 1)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

No. 5 Kansas State Wildcats (-2800) vs. No. 12 Fairfield Stags (+16.5) | O/U 135.5 (-110/-110)

  • Date: Friday, March 21
  • Start: 2:30 p.m. ET
  • Coverage: ESPNews

If you look at all the metrics and stats on paper, this is an easy game to call - Kansas State will win dominantly. However, what that doesn't take into consideration is how much Kansas State struggled down the stretch (7-6). To be fair, those struggles were due to losing star player Ayoka Lee to an injury.

If you can believe all of the reports online, she will be back and ready to go for the NCAA Tournament. However, since it was a foot injury, I'd imagine they might take it easy on her minutes. Even if they don't, the Wildcats were exposed without her in the lineup. They went from being a good, solid team to mediocre.

The Stags are a solid defensive team (No. 10 in the nation, 54 points per game allowed) while still being a good, but not necessarily as good of an offensive team (No. 64, 72.8 points per game). The level of competition they played, relative to Kansas State, was night and day. However, they know how to play good defense. If they can keep Lee from heating up, they have a real shot in this game.

At the least, they'll keep it somewhat competitive.

Pick: Fairfield +16.5 (-110)

No. 6 Iowa Hawkeyes (-470) vs. No. 11 Murray State Racers (+9.5) | O/U 165.5 (-110/-110)

  • Date: Saturday, March 22
  • Start: 12:00 p.m. ET
  • Coverage: ESPN

Murray State ended the regular season on a high with seven straight wins and kept the good times rolling to a Missouri Valley Conference (MVC) title and a berth in the NCAA Tournament. The secret to their success was simple: Keep the other team running and score a ton of points.

To that end, the Racers ranked fifth in pace of play and first in scoring with 87.4 points per game. Katelyn Young is one of the more dynamic scorers in the game, averaging 22.2 points per game (No. 11 in the country). However, as is often the case with teams that are prolific scorers, they struggle on the defensive end of the court (No. 319, 72.1 points per game allowed).

Iowa doesn't play as fast as Murray State, but at No. 32 in the rankings, I wouldn’t call them slow. Lucy Olson and Hannah Stuelke should have career days against the Racers’ lackluster defense, but their defense may not be up to the task of slowing down Murray State.

That total is a bit high, but we are talking about the No. 1 offense in the country facing an unimpressive Iowa defense and a good Hawkeyes offense taking on a dreadful Murray State defense. I'd shop around and see if you can find a lower total, but whether you do or don't, take the Over.

Pick: Over 165.5 Points (-110)

No. 7 Oklahoma State Cowgirls (-5.5) vs. No. 10 South Dakota State Jackrabbits (+200) | O/U 139.5 (-110/-110)

  • Date: Saturday, March 22
  • Start: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Coverage: ESPN2

Both teams here can be described as good but not great on both ends of the court to the point where they almost have the same average scoring margin this season: 16.7 for Oklahoma State and 15 for South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits, who have not lost a game in 2025, are riding a 19-game win streak into the NCAA Tournament.

Coincidentally, their last loss was to another team in the Big 12 - Texas (103-57).

Many experts are picking this game to be a close one since several strengths of each team coincide, i.e., South Dakota State is a top-10 shooting team, but Oklahoma State's defense allows just 60 points per game.

It's easy to overlook the Jackrabbits as just another small school ready to get crushed by Oklahoma State. However, South Dakota State played one of the more difficult non-conference schedules in the country. This will be an excellent and close game.

Pick: South Dakota State +6.5 (-110)