It’s been a back-and-forth start to the 2025 NASCAR betting season. The new IBT Betting Model has been absolutely locked in, helping me hit the outright in three of five Cup Series races and an additional Xfinity Series winner. Still, it’s been littered with a series of unfortunate late-race events that have blown up heavily-bet placement props and H2H matchups that looked like locks for a majority of the race.
I’ve been around racing long enough to know that you’ll get bit by mechanical issues, untimely cautions or wrecks from time to time. It comes with the territory. Whether you’re a driver, crew chief or just a bettor, all you can do is load up on Sunday night and begin preparing for the next race.
That takes us to Sin City, where the NASCAR Truck, Xfinity and Cup Series are all ready to hit the track at Las Vegas Motor Speedway this weekend. It’s the first of four high-speed 1.5-mile tracks the Cup Series will stop at, giving us a fair share of comparison tracks from last year to pull data from.
Let’s get back on the horse and go down swinging with my best bets for the 2025 Pennzoil 400 and full card for a loaded motorsports weekend.
2025 Pennzoil 400: NASCAR at Las Vegas Odds, Picks & Predictions
Under 20.5 Finishing Position: Noah Gragson (-120 via Caesars) | 5u
Noah Gragson returns to his home track, sitting 31st in points, needing to put together a strong run. It’s an ideal spot for the 26-year-old to turn around his season, as he’s 13th in Las Vegas Next-Gen average finishes (16.3) and 19th in Ifantasyrace.com‘s total speed rankings during that span.
That includes one race with Hendrick Motorsports (HMS), filling in for Alex Bowman, one with Legacy Motorsports in their final season with Chevy and two with Stewart Haas-Racing (SHR) in their final year of business. He now returns in Front Row Motorsports (FRM) equipment, an upgrade over everything he’s been in previously except for his brief HMS tenure.
Last year specifically, Gragson had an average running position of 17.9 in the spring but had a late-race surge to finish sixth. He followed that up with a fall run, where he had an average position of 17.6, finishing P18. Overall, the Bass Pro-backed driver is 14th in the projections. He finished T20 in three of four career Cup Series Las Vegas races and three of four comp races last season. The only race he didn’t was at Charlotte, where he was involved in a crash.
This is essentially a T20 ticket, and unless Gragson gets into trouble, he should cash it.
Top 10: Alex Bowman (+105 via BetRivers) | 3.5u
Speaking of Bowman, he’s seventh in the projections. That’s primarily because he is eighth in Las Vegas Next-Gen finishes - placing T5 in three of five races started - and sitting 4th in the total speed rankings during that span.
It was a tale of two very different races at Las Vegas for the HMS No. 48 Chevrolet driver last season. He had an average running position of 15.3 in the spring and finished P18. However, they figured something out and started third, had an average running position of 6.8 and finished P5 in the fall.
Bowman was also consistent at the comp tracks in 2024, sitting sixth in the high-speed 1.5-mile total speed rankings and finishing T10 in three of four races. Knowing this and that he won this race in the spring of 2022, I used a 25% boost at BetRivers to get his T10 line at plus money. He’s still even money at FanDuel and offering value down to -120.
Top 10: Daniel Suarez (+350 via ESPN BET) | .6u
This is more of a pricing play and something I’m scaling back the units to get down on. Daniel Suarez’s T10 line is priced as low as +145 at BetRivers. Meanwhile, ESPN BET is still hanging out a +350 ticket. That’s far too long for “Mi Amigo,” who sits 11th in the projections.
Suarez sports the 10th-best Las Vegas Next-Gen average finish (15.3) and the 14th-best total speed ranking. He’s also led a combined 103 laps in that span, including 57 laps in the fall that helped him to a third-place finish. With a top-10 average running position among active drivers in both Las Vegas races last year and a T5 finish at comp track Texas to boot, I’m wickedly high on the Trackhouse Racing No. 99 Chevrolet driver this week.
Getting an outlier price of +350 is just the icing on the cake.
Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:
William Byron Outright (+1000 via FanDuel) | .8u
Denny Hamlin Outright (+1100 via FanDuel) | .5u
Alex Bowman Outright (+2800 via FanDuel) | .2u
The LiUNA! (Xfinity Series) Bets:
Justin Allgaier Outright (+350 via FanDuel) | .3u
Justin Allgaier (-115 via BetRivers) vs. Aric Almirola | 2.5u
Harrison Burton Top 10 (+300 via bet365) | .6u
EcoSave 300 (Truck Series) Bets:
Corey Heim Outright (+200 via ESPN BET) | 1u
Chandler Smith Outright (+500 via ESPN BET) | .2u
Chandler Smith T5 (-140 via bet365) | 2.5u
Dawson Sutton T5 (+3000 via DraftKings) | .2u
Australian Grand Prix (Formula 1) Bets:
Carlos Sainz Jr. (-115 via BetRivers) vs. Pierre Gasly | 3u
Seth Woolcock is a five-time FSWA-nominated writer and host at BettingPros/FantasyPros. He is also the founder and content director for In-Between Media. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF and check out his award-nominated NASCAR betting show, “The Backroad.”
