We’re only three points-paying races into the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season, and things are already heating up, especially if you’re behind in the standings early.
Brad Keselowski felt the literal heat at Circuit of the Americas (COTA) as he was stretchered off pit road following the race when his cool suit failed. Keselowski was all good following some time in the infield care center, but he still may be feeling the pressure as he remains in 25th in the standings.
After being wrecked with a shot to win in back-to-back weeks to begin the regular season, frustration mounted at COTA for Austin Cindric. Qualifying went awry for Team Penske as a whole, and Cindric started 36th. While making his way up through the pack, Ty Dillon hit him off the track. He retaliated by hooking the No. 10 car in the right rear. He has since been fined $50,000 and - more importantly - docked 50 points. As a result, he’s fallen to 34th in the points.
On the bright side, he still sits one spot above Ty Gibbs, who is coming off back-to-back finishes of 30+ and has earned no stage points yet this season.
A date in the Arizona desert this weekend is the next opportunity for these drivers and the field as a whole to improve their position in the standings. It’s also another chance for us motorsports bettors to continue building our bankroll. With this now being the seventh race at Phoenix in the Next-Gen era, the Cup Series odds are relatively juiced. That doesn’t mean there isn’t pre-practice and qualifying value to exploit, though. You just have to get creative.
Here are my best bets for the 2025 Shriners Children’s 500 and full card for this weekend at Phoenix Raceway.
2025 Shriners Children’s 500: NASCAR at Phoenix Odds, Picks & Predictions
Christopher Bell Outright (+583 via BetRivers) | 1.4u
After back-to-back wins - one we were part of last week at COTA (12-1) - Christopher Bell is vying for his third consecutive trip to victory lane. There probably couldn’t be a better place for him to attempt it than Phoenix Raceway.
The Oklahoma native is 10th in Phoenix Next-Gen average finishing position at 14.0. However, that includes a 2023 championship race where he blew his brakes early in the day. If you remove that asterisk mark performance, Bell’s average finish moves to 9.6, good for fourth among active drivers. He is also third in Ifantasyrace.com‘s Phoenix Next-Gen total speed rankings.
Last year in this spring race, The Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) driver was fourth in average running position (6.3) and first in driver rating (125.1), ultimately taking home the checkered flag. Despite not being a part of the Championship 4, Bell was first in average running position (2.8) and second in driver rating (136.5) in the fall Phoenix race, finishing fifth.
His success at the comparative shorter-flat tracks may even be more compelling than the 30-year-old’s sensational track record at Phoenix. Last season, he had the best average finish on these comps at 4.8, finishing no worse than P7.
This week, I aimed to find exposure to Bell in the placement prop market. However, there’s no value I can find pre-flop, so I opted for just the outright instead. I used a 25% at BetRivers to get these odds up to +583. Yet, I’d still bet it at the flat 5-1 he’s going off at some books while keeping an eye on his T5 and T10 numbers post-qualifying.
Top 10: Tyler Reddick (-139 via BetRivers) | 4u
The biggest discrepancy between the IBT Betting Model projections and the books is Tyler Reddick. I have him projected third with a 90% grade, behind only Bell and Ryan Blaney. The eight-time Cup Series winner is as consistent as they come in the desert, sitting fifth in the Phoenix Next-Gen Average finishes (11.2) and sixth in the Next-Gen total speed rankings.
The No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota Camry was the car to beat last year in this race, leading 68 laps, winning stage one and posting a race-best 4.8 average running position. While he wasn’t as dominant in the spring, Reddick still had an average running position of 7.9 (seventh-best) and ran 100% of laps inside the top 15.
At other shorter-flat tracks last season, the California native posted a second-best average finish of 9.0 and was fifth at the overall shorter-flat track total speed rankings.
Reddick has finished T10 in four of the six Next-Gen Phoenix races - including two races ran in inferior Richard Childress Racing (RCR) equipment. He has also scored stage points in 10 of 12 possible stages during that span. That’s why seeing him at bettable T10 odds of -139 was so jarring.
This line has moved since earlier in the week when I played it, but I’d still get down on it at the current -162 odds.
Seth’s Weekender Parlay | 2u
- Cup Series: Winning Car Number Over 11.5 (-245)
- Xfinity Series: Austin Hill (-115) vs. Brandon Jones
- Combined Odds: +164 via BetRivers
In an attempt to continue my winning car number bet for the fourth straight week, I’ve got a cross-series parlay on deck.
The top four drivers in the IBT Betting Model projections are Bell, Blaney, Reddick and William Byron, who all have car numbers over 11.5 There’s a substantial drop off between them and the next highest drivers like Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliot and Kyle Larson, two of which have not shown race-winning speeds outside of superspeedways this season.
In taking the Winning Car Number Over 11.5 (-245), you also get our most recent Phoenix winner, 2024 Cup Series Champion Joey Logano, and Chris Buescher, who is eighth in the projections.
The second leg of the Weekender Parlay is an Xfinity Series H2H matchup for Saturday, backing Austin Hill to beat Brandon Jones. “Big Country” has finished T10 in five straight Phoenix races. The only Xfinity Series race he was outside the top 10 was his first-ever race here in the Xfinity Series and his fourth-ever start for Richard Childress Racing (RCR). That was also the only time Jones beat Hill H2H at Phoenix.
Despite having mechanical issues while leading at Daytona, Hill is 3-0 against Jones this season and has an average finish of 12.7 compared to Jones’ 26.7. If he can come through for us on Saturday in the GOVX200, I’ll feel great heading into Sunday with a +164 ticket on one of the big four or any of the other 22 cars with a number over 11.5 to win.
Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:
Tyler Reddick Outright (+1500 via FanDuel) | .5u
Carson Hocevar Top 10 (+460 via FanDuel) | .5u
Other GOVX 200 (Xfinity) Bets on My Card:
Austin Hill Top 10 (-120 via bet365) | 4u
Seth Woolcock is a five-time FSWA-nominated writer and host at BettingPros/FantasyPros. He is also the founder and content director for In-Between Media. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF and check out his award-nominated NASCAR betting show, “The Backroad.”
