2025 Straight Talk Wireless 400: NASCAR at Homestead Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Many have tried, but few have reached the mountaintop of winning a NASCAR Cup Series race.

For some, like Ross Chastain, who won his first Cup race in his fourth full-time season at Circuit of the Americas (COTA) in 2022, it’s the opening of a floodgate of success to come. For others like Trevor Bayne, who won the 2011 Daytona 500 in his second career race at the age of 20, it’s just a fleeting moment in time that never comes again.

Josh Berry, now driving for Woods Brother Racing, hopes his win last week at Las Vegas is the former: a catalyst for more to come. And it might just be. The 34-year-old was older than your traditional Cup Series prospect when he was signed by Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) to replace Kevin Harvick in the No. 4 car for the 2024 season. What looked like a great opportunity quickly turned bleak when the company announced its closure at season’s end.

It wasn’t the first change of direction in the former bank teller’s journey. As told on this week’s “Dale Jr. Download” episode, Berry met Dale Earnhardt Jr. iRacing in 2008. After Berry asked the NASCAR Hall-of-Famer to watch some of his races at the Nashville Fairgrounds and offer feedback, Jr. saw something in him. Berry then moved to Charlotte, N.C., in 2010 and spent the next several years working on the JR Motorsports (JRM) Late Model car.

After success driving in the CARS Tour, Berry moved to primarily racing the Xfinity Series, winning five races in a part-time 2021 season and two full-time seasons in 2022 and 2023. He hasn’t looked back since and has now stamped his seal on Cup Series history, paving the way for more grassroots racers to make it to the top level.

While I missed out on Berry last week, we still brought home six separate bets across the top three Series last week, including an Xfinity Series and Truck Series outright and two +300-or-better placement props.

The usual suspects should be the catbird seat of this weekend’s race at Homestead-Miami Speedway, one of the few high-tire-wear intermediate tracks remaining on the schedule. However, if strategy and cautions mix up the race like last week, I’m taking a shot at who I think could be the next upset winner.

From favorites to longshots, here are my best bets for the 2025 Straight Talk Wireless 400 and a full weekend of racing in South Beach.

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2025 Straight Talk Wireless 400: NASCAR at Homestead Odds, Picks & Predictions

Outright: Christopher Bell (+1100 via FanDuel) | 2u

With FanDuel distracted in anticipation of March Madness, they left Christopher Bell hanging out at 11-1. It’s been bet down to +750 there now, but there’s still value out there on the 9-1 ticket that Caesars is offering. Despite taking three of the first five checkered flags in points-paying races, Bell remains the most disrespected Cup Series driver.

The only place he’s given the credit due is the IBT Betting Model, which has him projected to finish third, and for good reason. Bell is No. 1 in Homestead Next-Gen average finishing position (5.3). In last year’s race on Oct. 27, Bell started and finished third, scoring 13 stage points in-between. He was also third in average running position (5.4) and fourth in driver rating (111.2).

The only true comparison track to Homestead is Darlington, where Bell had the third-best average finish (8.0) last season. As long as the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) Toyota is running, it’ll be in the mix. Having one of the fastest horses in the races at 11-1 and a potential cash-out opportunity on the line is all you can ask for.

Top Ford: Josh Berry (+1000 via bet365) | .5u

Ryan Blaney is the only Ford inside the top 10 of the projections, so I’m taking flyers on other blue ovals in case the No. 12 team runs into trouble.

Berry projects to finish 11th and is riding the high off last week’s win. He finished 11th at Homestead last year and was 11th in Ifantasyrace.com‘s total speed rankings, starting 12th with a 14.1 average running position. Given his CARS Tour background, it makes sense that the Tennessee native was also seventh in the 2024 high-tire-wear intermediate track total speed rankings.

Getting a 10-1 ticket on a driver who’s been the top Ford in back-to-back weeks is too good to pass up, especially considering Caesars has him all the way down at +550 for the same market.

Top Ford: Ryan Preece (+2000 via bet365) | .2u

I’m also shooting a dart at Ryan Preece to not only be the top Ford but to get his first Cup Series win. Coming off a career day at Las Vegas, Preece is 15th in the projections and fourth among the ponies. Like Berry, the Conneticut native also has a short-track background that taught him how to manage his tires.

Preece ranked eighth in Homestead Next-Gen average finish (11.5) and 10th in the high-tire wear comp finishes (14.5) last year, setting him up for a good run. Now running in Roush Fenway Keselowski (RFK) Racing equipment, this may be the best opportunity he’s ever had to get to victory lane.

Whether or not you believe in back-to-back longshot winners, Preece is listed for as low as +950 to be the top Ford at Caesars. That means there’s value on him at 20-1 from bet365.

Chase Elliott (-114 via BetRivers) vs. Ross Chastain | 3u

Chase Elliott continues to nickel and dime his way to T10 finishes, doing so in three straight weeks. Yet, instead of taking the -120 ticket for him to do it for a fourth consecutive time, I’m hammering down on him at -114 against Ross Chastain. This H2H matchup originally opened at -135 for Elliott at ESPN BET, so I was pumped to see it at a pick’em from our friends in Pittsburgh.

This is the biggest discrepancy H2H in the projections, with Elliott rating out third and Chastain coming in at 22nd.

The No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet driver is seventh in Homestead average finishing position (11.3) and sixth in the total speed rankings during that span. Last fall, Elliott started fourth, finished fifth and had a 4.0 average running position, spending 95.1% of laps inside the top 15.

Chastain, on the other hand, is 25th in Homestead Next-Gen average finish (22.0) and 15th in the total speed rankings in that time. His No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet was abysmal in Miami last fall, leading “The Melon Man” to an average running position of 24.6 and a 33rd-place finish, spending just 8.2% of the laps inside the top 15. While I’m high on Chastain to show up in Friday night’s Truck Series race, I don’t expect him to have a good run on Sunday unless he nails the strategy.

Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:

Ryan Preece Outright (+7000 via FanDuel) | .3u
Toyota To Win (+180 via DraftKings) | 1u

Hard Rock Bet 300 (Xfinity Series) Bets:

Christian Eckes (-140 via ESPN BET) vs. Justin Bonsignor | 4u
Harrison Burton Top 10 (+225 via ESPN BET) | 1u
Daniel Dye Top 10 (+800 via ESPN BET) | .5u

Baptist Health 200 (Truck Series) Bets:

Ross Chastain (+115 via Caesars) vs. Chandler Smith | 2u
Ross Chastain Outright (+1100 via ESPN BET) | .3u

Chinese Grand Prix (Formula 1) Bets:

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Seth Woolcock is a five-time FSWA-nominated writer and host at BettingPros/FantasyPros. He is also the founder and content director for In-Between Media. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF and check out his award-nominated NASCAR betting show, “The Backroad.”