2025 Texas Children’s Houston Open Golf Odds & Picks: Head-to-Head Matchups
Following Viktor Hovland’s epic duel against Justin Thomas to win the 2025 Valspar Championship, the PGA Tour will depart from Florida in favor of Texas this week, lining up a field of 156 golfers at the 2025 Texas Children’s Houston Open. Stephen Jaeger’s lone PGA Tour win came at the 2024 Houston Open, beating Scottie Scheffler and four other golfers log-jammed at -11-under-par by a stroke at 12-under-par.
Oddsmakers continue to favor Scottie Scheffler as the betting favorite in the outright winner market at +350. Rory McIlroy is a close second at +700 odds, after recording his second win in four events played at The Players Championship a couple of weeks ago. Then, it’s a massive drop-off, with Aaron Rai at +2800, and several golfers at +3000, including Wyndham Clark, J.J. Spaun, and Tony Finau.
Last week, my Valspar Championship head-to-head matchups went 1-1, each targeting the Tournament Group props. A loss on Ben Griffin at +280 was made up by Justin Thomas cashing our one-unit ticket at +260 odds, recording a solo runner-up finish to beat Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, Sepp Straka and Sam Burns.
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2025 Texas Children’s Houston Open Odds & Picks
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tournament Group – Scheffler v McIlroy v Rai v Spaun v Thompson
There’s such a massive emphasis being placed on Scottie Scheffler to continue his domination at Memorial Park Golf Course that we’re obligated to back Rory McIlroy to win this Tournament Group at +220 odds. While I like Aaron Rai quite a bit, especially for a top-ten finish, I don’t think he’ll be able to contend with how well McIlroy has been tee-to-green this season.
McIlroy has won half of the events he’s played on the PGA Tour in 2025. He’ll make his debut at the Houston Open and should be able to pick up from where he left off during his playoff victory over J.J. Spaun at TPC Sawgrass. Scheffler at even odds and McIlroy at +220 feels like a steal in this market.
Let’s bet a unit on McIlroy to win this Tournament Group prop. He’ll showcase his brawn off-the-tee as the undisputed power hitter on a par 70 course that demands distance on wide and inviting fairways.
Pick: Rory McIlroy (+220)
Tournament Group – McNealy v Smalley v Detry v Theegala v Mitchell
I like how Alex Smalley measures up against the golfers in his Tournament Group prop on DraftKings Sportsbook. Smalley has had a strong 2025 campaign, recording six top-25 finishes in eight events, including three of his last four events inside the top-20.
Smalley is coming off of a missed cut at a difficult course like Innisbrook during the Valspar Championship. However, he’s ranked seventh in total strokes gained, including 14th off-the-tee, fifth in total driving, including 40th in distance and 39th in accuracy. Smalley is 11th in scrambling and third in scoring average, while ranking second-best on par 4s in 2025.
He missed the cut at the 2024 Houston Open after going +6 in the first two rounds. I expect a much better performance from Smalley this time around, especially with how he’s played lately, excluding last week’s missed cut at Valspar.
Maverick McNealy and Thomas Detry have either logged a win or a runner-up finish, yet I’m not bullish on either golfer at Memorial Park. Detry is likely the biggest threat to Smalley, recording a T2 finish at the 2024 Houston Open, including a 6-under-par Round 2 finish to propel the Belgian up the leaderboard. Since his win at the WM Phoenix Open, Detry has gone 53-MC-MC-T22.
Sahith Theegala is struggling and Keith Mitchell lacks consistency. Smalley will have a much better opportunity to flex his driver at Memorial Park this week and he’s a phenomenal scrambler. Let’s bet half a unit on Smalley to win this Tournament Group as the co-favorite alongside McNealy at +320 odds.
Pick: Alex Smalley (+320)
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