We’re leaving Florida and heading to the Lone Star State for the 2025 Texas Children’s Houston Open for this week’s PGA Tour event. Despite having yet to record an outright win in 2025, Scottie Scheffler remains the betting favorite at +350 odds, followed by Rory McIlroy at +700. Aaron Rai is the next betting favorite to win the Houston Open at +2800.
My Valspar Championship PGA best bets went 1-1 at Innisbrook this past weekend. Sepp Straka’s 74 in Round 3 kept us from cashing a top-20 finish on the Austrian golfer at +125 odds. However, Lucas Glover’s hot hand continued at Valspar, recording a T8 finish, easily settling as a win for a top 30 finish at +110 odds to turn a bit of profit.
I’m back with two best bets to place before the Texas Children’s Houston Open gets underway on Thursday morning. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly PGA Tour analysis.
Texas Children’s Houston Open: Best Bets
These plays are 1 unit and 0.50 units. Or 1% and 0.5% of your betting bankroll. Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Top 10 Finish
I’ve been riding Aaron Rai’s production for most of the 2025 PGA Tour season and will get a bit more aggressive on the Englishman in Houston this week. Rai has played very well in most events, yet he’s only recorded one top-ten finish in seven events.
He’s played well at Memorial Park Golf Course in previous appearances, carding back-to-back T7 finishes at the Houston Open in 2023 and 2024. Ranked 19th in total strokes gained, including 23rd off-the-tee and 28th on approach, Rai’s short game has also taken a big leap this season. He’s currently 36th in putting average and finds greens in regulation at over a 70 percent clip.
Ranked as the sixth-most accurate driver on the PGA Tour, third in par 4 scoring, and 22nd in birdie average, there’s not much to dislike about Rai’s current form. Let’s bet half a unit on Rai to record a third consecutive top-ten finish at Memorial Park at a generous +280 price for a good return on investment.
Pick: Aaron Rai (+280)
Top 30 Finish
Long hitters are rewarded at Memorial Park, which is why I’m interested in backing Jake Knapp off of a bad week at the Valspar Championship. Knapp’s success earlier this season appears to be undervalued by oddsmakers, who are offering +170 odds on the power-hitter to record a top-30 finish at the Houston Open this week.
Knapp missed the cut at Innisbrook but prior to those two poor rounds of golf, the 30-year-old American had gone T17-T25-T6-T12 in four consecutive events. This includes at the Cognizant Classic and The Players Championship. Memorial Park has much less punishing rough and wider fairways, which run far.
Knapp missed the cut here in 2024 despite this course appearing to be a good match for his skillset on paper. He has two missed cuts in 10 events played this season, so I doubt we see back-to-back missed cuts from Knapp in Houston this week.
Let’s take advantage of the recency bias and bet a unit on Knapp to record his fifth top 30 finish at +170 odds at the Houston Open this week.
Pick: Jake Knapp (+170)
Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.
