2025 The American Express Golf Odds & Picks: Head-to-Head Matchups

The PGA Tour departs from its two-week Hawaii trip to southern California for the annual American Express event in La Quinta, California. Located in the Coachella Valley, a full field of golfers will compete across three different courses, including the Pete Dye Stadium Course twice, for any player who makes the 54-hole cut following the conclusion of Saturday’s third round.

Nick Dunlap returns to defend his title, which he won as an amateur at 29-under-par, setting a course record at this Pro-Am event. Dunlap is now a certified professional on the PGA Tour and added another outright win to his rookie campaign in 2024, however, he’s currently +5500 to win outright and defend his title at The American Express. Following Xander Schauffele’s withdrawal, Sungjae Im and Justin Thomas are co-betting favorites at +1200 in the outright winner market. Scottie Scheffler will remain absent while rehabbing a hand injury.

My Sony Open Head-to-Head Matchups bets settled as 0-1-1. The push came from Maverick McNealy (+170) tying Taylor Pendrith at 7-under-par, following a final round 73 from McNealy. Pendrith was less volatile, never scoring higher than 1-under-par, but McNealy’s hot start, sitting at 10-under-par entering Sunday’s final round, makes this push feel more like a loss. The outright loser came on a Round 1 matchup between J.T. Poston and Austin Eckroat. I sided with Eckroat to score lower than Poston as a slight favorite at -115 odds in Round 1, however, several missed putts inside of 10 feet, along with some impressive play around the greens from Poston, cost me this bet, as Poston beat Eckroat by one stroke.

I’m back with a couple head-to-head matchups to bet, each worth one unit, ahead of Round 1 teeing off at The American Express on Thursday. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly analysis.

2025 The American Express Odds & Picks

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

18 Hole Matchbet (Round 1) – Brian Harman vs. Cameron Young

I’ll start off with an 18 Hole Matchbet prop for Round 1 on Thursday between Brian Harman and Cameron Young. Young is a marginal favorite at -125 odds to finish with a lower Round 1 score than Harman.

Young didn’t compete at The American Express in 2024 but he did record a 4-under-par Round 1 finish in 2023. He also got off to a red-hot start at 8-under-par in 2022, similar to his Round 1 finish at Kapalua, going 7-under-par.

Harman got off to a sluggish start in Kapalua, going over par in both of his first two rounds, despite playing with ideal scoring conditions. It’s shaping up to be a birdie-fest and Young definitely wields more power off-the-tee and with his approach shots, while Harman is a more consistent putter.

Harman has had a mixed bag of Round 1 results at The American Express during his last three outings, missing the cut and going 1-under-par in 2024, while turning in -5-under-par and 4-under-par Round 1 scores in 2023 and 2022. I expect Young to be more aggressive and finish with more birdies and less bogeys than Harman on Thursday on the Nicklaus Tournament course, so let’s stake one unit on Young at -125 odds.

Pick: Cameron Young (-125)

72 Hole Matchbet Sam Burns vs. Tony Finau

We’ll wrap up with a 72 Hole Matchbet prop to sweat throughout the entire American Express tournament, backing Sam Burns over Tony Finau at -120 odds. Burns has played well at previous editions of The American Express, carding a T6 finish in 2024 after opening -24-under-par before a -1-under-par finish on Sunday.

Finau turned in a T25 at this event in 2024, staying between 4-under-par and 5-under-par in every round. Burns is aggressive and a fantastic putter, converting quite a few birdie opportunities when his off-the-tee and approach game are dialed in. Burns turned in a T8 finish at Kapalua during his last outing, while Finau wound up T15.

I like Burns to contend for the outright win, which is why oddsmakers have him as the third betting favorite at +1600. Let’s bet one more unit on Burns at -120 odds to beat Finau with a lower score at the end of The American Express on Sunday.

Pick: Sam Burns (-120)

BettingPros Podcast

Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.