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3 AFC Win Totals to Bet Right Now: Odds & Picks (2023 NFL Futures)

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NFL training camp is just around the corner, which means now is the time to start looking ahead into NFL future bets. Starting this week, I’ll be coming to you once a week with three futures to jump on before the 2023 season kicks off.

For this week’s futures piece, we’ll focus on my three favorite win total bets for the upcoming season in the AFC.

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook 

2023 NFL Futures: 3 AFC Win Totals to Bet Right Now

Future Bet #1: Baltimore Ravens over 9.5 wins (-170) 

The Ravens feel like a team that’s flying under the radar a bit in the loaded AFC. But the Ravens are a team I’ll be buying in 2023. Baltimore was decimated by injuries across its offense last season, most notably to Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews. Yet, the Ravens still won 10 games and made the playoffs despite having Tyler Huntley and Anthony Brown quarterbacking them through the home stretch of the regular season.

The Ravens have a loaded roster and could benefit greatly from a change of offensive identity. Greg Roman is out as offensive coordinator, and the Ravens brought in Georgia offensive coordinator Todd Monken to replace him. The Ravens offense could be more predicated on Jackson as a thrower than ever before while still leveraging his incredible running ability.

The Ravens also added more weaponry for Jackson to work with, most notably signing Odell Beckham Jr. and drafting Zay Flowers. Along with Andrews and Rashod Bateman, this is easily the deepest group of pass catchers Jackson’s had to work with. Defensively, the Ravens said goodbye to cornerback Marcus Peters but replaced him with Rock Ya-Sin and Trayvon Mullen.

Most importantly, the Ravens signed Jackson to a long-term extension, ending the drama regarding his contract situation.

Baltimore has a deep and talented roster that finished 12th in offensive DVOA and 7th in defensive DVOA a year ago. Better health is paramount, but Baltimore shouldn’t be discounted in the battle for the AFC crown. And while Baltimore’s schedule isn’t easy by any stretch, every game is winnable, and only six games come against teams that made the postseason a year ago.

While I’m using DraftKings for our odds, I’d definitely shop around for a better number. I’d even be willing to play the over 10 win future at a better price. I also endorse taking Baltimore to win the division at +220.

Future Bet #2: Miami Dolphins over 9.5 wins (+100) 

I think the hype surrounding the New York Jets since they added Aaron Rodgers presents a buying opportunity on a Dolphins team that started the year 8-3 and finished 9-8 with a playoff berth a year ago. Miami exceeded expectations in Mike McDaniel’s first season at the helm, and I think Miami is poised for bigger things in 2023.

Miami finished seventh in offensive DVOA a year ago, as McDaniel was able to unlock QB Tua Tagovailoa’s potential by giving him short-area throws and letting speedy receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle do the rest. Hill and Waddle make Miami’s passing game extremely difficult to defend, but Miami needs to better establish its running game in 2023. Not only will this give Miami more offensive balance, but it will also help protect Tagovailoa, who is certainly a risk for concussions. Should Tua get hurt, I feel decent about Miami’s backup, Mike White, who emerged as a high-end backup with the Jets last season.

What excites me most about Miami in 2023 is what it added defensively. The Dolphins acquired cornerback Jalen Ramsey in a trade with the Rams and, perhaps more importantly, brought in Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator. While Fangio’s stint as a head coach in Denver didn’t work out, he’s one of the game’s best defensive coordinators and should elevate a defense that finished 15th in DVOA a year ago.

Defense is going to be key in a division with Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers. The schedule isn’t easy, and the risk of a Tagovailoa injury is high. But Miami has a talented roster and lost four games by six points or fewer down the stretch last year. While the Jets are getting the hype, I’ll roll the dice on a Dolphins team that’s just as good.

Future Bet #3: Houston Texans under 6.5 wins (-130)

I was a bit surprised to see Houston’s win total posted this high. The Texans were a pretty dismal team who won two out of their final three games against lousy division foes just to get to three wins on the year.

Now, I believe DeMeco Ryans will be a positive addition to this franchise over time. And I’m optimistic about Houston’s future with C.J. Stroud under center and Will Anderson rushing the passer. But Houston was a team that finished 31st in offensive DVOA and 22nd in defensive DVOA a season ago. And while free agent additions such as Dalton Schultz, Devin Singletary, and Sheldon Rankins were a handful of nice additions, this roster is still awfully thin and devoid of high-end talent. Combine that with your typical rookie QB growing pains, and it’s hard to see the Texans getting to seven wins, even if they end up being more competitive in 2023.


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