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3 NCAA Tournament Sleeper Pool Picks (2024 March Madness)

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Over a dozen No. 1 seeds lost in their respective conference tournaments. Don’t be the person who picks only favorites in your bracket pool this year.

There was more parity in college basketball than any year we’ve ever seen. Keep that in mind when filling out your March Madness brackets.

We’re not trying to figure out a 16-seed that can beat a one-seed. Instead, we’re looking for teams in the NCAA Tournament that can make it to the Final Four and potentially win the NCAA Championship. And make sure to check out our 2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket Optimizer to take down your pools!

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2024 March Madness Sleepers

Duke Blue Devils (South - 4 Seed)

So many people are down on the Duke Blue Devils. But they’re easily better than some other three- and four-seeds and have metrics that support them, especially in the South.

Duke shot 37.7% from downtown and 54.5% from inside the arc this year. The Blue Devils also turned the ball over just 14.3% of the time and have added 31.8% of offensive rebounds per game.

On defense, Duke’s defensive efficiency ranked 26th this season. The Blue Devils were above average in every defensive stat, holding teams to 32.6% from three and 49.1% from inside the arc.

Duke’s opponents added just 25.9% of offensive rebounds and didn’t even get to the foul line much against the Blue Devils this year.

Yes, the ACC was weak. Yes, Duke has some bad losses, including the NC State matchup in the ACC Tournament. But the talent on this squad can take Duke far.

Duke will face Vermont in the first round. Then they’ll get James Madison or Wisconsin in the next round. After that, Duke will likely have to play Houston, which would be a very difficult task. But if the offense shines and gets hot, you never know.

BYU Cougars (East - 6 Seed)

Does anyone trust BYU?

If nothing else, KenPom does.

BYU finished the year 23-10 and the regular season as the 16th-best team in the nation, per KenPom. The Cougars nailed 34.8% from downtown and hit 58% from inside the arc. They shoot many threes, but with a percentage of nearly 35%, that’s fine.

The Cougars don’t get to the foul line much on the offensive end, but they also don’t foul at a high rate on the other end. BYU has held teams to 24.7% offensive rebounds and an effective field goal percentage of 48%.

People don’t want to believe in BYU, who will have to face Illinois in the second round. But the Big Ten Champion always has difficulty getting out of the first weekend. BYU can stick around offensively with Illinois to at least get into the Sweet 16.

New Mexico Lobos (East - 5 Seed)

I’m not cool enough if I don’t add an 11-seed as a sleeper.

There’s going to be so much parity this year. Truly, anything is possible.

New Mexico is trending in the right direction after winning a very deep Mountain West this season. They don’t turn the ball over much and have had a lot of success on the glass on both sides of the ball.

But while the offense is very good, the defense is even better. The Lobos have held teams to 30.6% from downtown and have only conceded 27% of offensive rebounds.

The Lobos drew Clemson in the first round and match up really well against them. Then they’d likely take on Baylor, which, to me, is another winnable game.

By the Sweet 16, people will be super excited to potentially watch Caleb Love play North Carolina with the Arizona Wildcats in the Elite Eight. However, New Mexico could ruin everyone’s hopes and continue its improbable run.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

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