3 NCAA Tournament Teams to Fade: Midwest Region (2024 March Madness)

You know we’ve got you covered here at BettingPros with all the up-to-date information and statistical data for the upcoming tournament. Make sure to check out my Cinderella Guide and the bracket optimizer.

Now I'm back analyzing different teams that are on high alert for an upset. There is an art to picking an upset, and it really goes beyond just who will be beaten in the first round. I will include three teams for each region: a chalky upset pick, a common choice and a potential shocker.

Here are teams to be wary of in the Midwest region.

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3 NCAA Tournament Teams to Fade: Midwest Region

Chalky Upset Pick: South Carolina

The Gamecocks are getting as little love as a six-seed as Clemson, but honestly, it’s the right call. The only at-large team South Carolina would be favored against on a neutral court per KenPom is Virginia, and they already lost before the tournament even started!

Ranking 49th in KenPom without any real big strengths, it’s hard to trust this South Carolina squad. They are the single luckiest team in the tournament and have a remarkably difficult path. They face March Madness connoisseur Dana Altman in round one, with N’Faly Dante playing his best basketball. If they advance, the Gamecocks likely get a Creighton team capable of winning. This is not the tournament for the Gamecocks.

Common Choice: Kansas

With the news of Kevin McCullar being out for the entire NCAA Tournament, this is quickly becoming a chalkier selection. Kansas already lacked depth and now enters the tournament metaphorically and physically limping in, going 1-3 in their final four games while ranking 110th in Bart Torvik over that time.

It’s a small sample size, I understand, but Samford actually ranks higher in efficiency during that time. Bill Self is a legend, but there is only so much he can do with missing key players on the court. If they do advance to the Round of 32, it’ll be a quick turnaround against one of the most difficult five and 12 seeds in Gonzaga and McNeese. The Jayhawks haven’t lost in the first round since 2006, but this just might be the year that streak breaks. I would be genuinely surprised if KU made it to the second weekend.

The Potential Shocker: Tennessee

If you’re just looking at the analytics, Tennessee is a powerhouse. With the third-ranked defense and eighth-overall strength of schedule. It makes sense why so many people are bullish on the Volunteers. Dalton Knecht is a delight to watch, and I am truly hoping we get to see as much playing time out of him as possible.

The thing is, not only is Rick Barnes historically (like truly, historically) bad in March, but Tennessee has one of the most difficult paths to the Final Four for almost any team. Texas is a dangerous team that can catch fire with a lot of athleticism. Creighton only ranks four spots behind the Volunteers in KenPom but has a serious offense that can handle Tennessee. Plus, this squad already lost to Purdue earlier this year. Their inconsistent play and struggles in neutral-court games give me pause on sending Tennessee deep in my bracket.