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3 NCAA Tournament Teams to Fade: West Region (2024 March Madness)

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You know we’ve got you covered here at BettingPros with all the up-to-date information and statistical data for the upcoming tournament. Make sure to check out my Cinderella Guide and the bracket optimizer.

Now I'm back analyzing different teams that are on high alert for an upset. There is an art to picking an upset, and it really goes beyond just who will be beaten in the first round. I will include three teams for each region: a chalky upset pick, a common choice and a potential shocker.

Here are teams to be wary of in the West region.

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3 NCAA Tournament Teams to Fade: West Region

Chalky Upset Pick: Clemson

I have never seen so many people side to an 11-seed over a 6-seed in all of my years of following College Basketball, but this is for good reason. There have been a total of 11 instances where an 11 is favored over a six-seed in the NCAA Tournament; the 11 has gone 10-1 SU in those games.

I mean, is this really even an upset at this point? New Mexico is simply the better team here. They won’t turn the ball over at all and should shoot quite well from mid-range. Sure, PJ Hall should get his, but Clemson won’t be making many perimeter shots and has lost three of their last four games. New Mexico is playing excellent ball right now and continues to have a chip on their shoulder, considering they would have been left out of the tournament if not for winning the Mountain West outright. Don’t think about this one too much.

Common Choice: Alabama

While Alabama may be one of the most exciting teams to watch in March with the third-best offensive ranking, there is a big thing needed to succeed in this tournament: defense. The Crimson Tide does not have that.

They rank 112th overall with a high free throw rate, low defensive rebounding and limited forced turnovers. Their defense is like Swiss cheese, which can only get them so far. Sure, they should handle Charleston, but beyond that, they cannot be trusted. Haslametrics has Alabama ranked 362nd in the momentum metric, so not only are they not playing their best ball, but they’re also 307th in consistency. This team is prone to an early exit, one way or another.

The Potential Shocker: North Carolina

The odds of every one seed making the Sweet Sixteen per EvanMiya are 32%. Someone has to get cut from the team, and UNC is the weakest link. Without a doubt, the weakest No. 1 seed in the field, the Tar Heels, are susceptible to dropping either to Michigan State or Mississippi State in the second round.

UNC has one of the lowest shooting ceilings in the nation and the 24th-ranked offense. There have been 13 one-seeds with a sub-20th offense, and only two of them have made the Final Four, with four of them losing before the Sweet 16. It may be tempting to send this blue blood deep into your bracket, but I’d advise caution personally.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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