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3 NCAA Tournament Teams to Fade: East Region (2024 March Madness)

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The East Region is by far the most intriguing region in the 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket. Of course, I’ll be watching intently to see how it plays out. I’ll also be curious to see how bettors and bracket-challenge players handle their picks within this region.

Why do I care so much about what other people think about the East Region? I have a suspicion it will be the chalkiest region in the wide majority of brackets. Just look at the top four seeds:

  • Connecticut, the reigning NCAA champion, Big East regular season and conference tournament champion, and the No. 1 overall seed
  • Iowa State, the Big 12 Tournament winners
  • Illinois, the Big Ten Tournament winners
  • Auburn, the SEC Tournament winners

Recency bias plays a significant role for the casual bettor and bracket creator. The last time we watched each of these teams, they were cutting down the nets in their respective conference tournaments. I’m here to tell you not to fall for what you last saw. While this region definitely is loaded on paper, there are a few higher seeds that could be ripe for a colossal upset.

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2024 NCAA Tournament Teams to Fade from the East Region

Below are the teams that are on upset alert in the East Region.

(7) Washington State vs. (10) Drake

Let’s start with the potential upset that would be the least surprising. The Washington State Cougars are going to have their hands full in their first NCAA Tournament game since 2008.

The Drake Bulldogs are for real, and hail from a Missouri Valley Conference that’s proven to have no fear playing the role of David against a Power-Five Goliath.

Drake can light up the scoreboard with four players scoring in double figures. The Bulldogs are a superb shooting team from both the interior and the perimeter, they take care of the basketball, and they’ve got valuable tournament experience.

Drake also matches up well with Washington State. The Cougars rely heavily on the offensive glass, but they will have a tough time getting second-chance opportunities against the best defensive rebounding team in the country.

The biggest impediment to a Drake upset is the interior matchup. Washington State prefers to get their points at the rim, and the Bulldogs allowed opponents to hit 51.4% of their 2-point shots this season.

Making matters even tougher for Wazzu is their draw. This game will take place in Omaha, which is two hours away from Drake’s campus.

(4) Auburn vs. (13) Yale

Let’s crank up the spiciness a bit more and put the SEC Tournament champs on notice. To be fair, Auburn is grossly under-seeded compared to their analytical profile. Bart Torvik ranks them as the #5 team in the country, and instead they’re in the same region as UConn.

The Tigers are spearheaded by an elite front court headlined by Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams. It’s no surprise Auburn made 54.9% of their 2-point shots, have the best interior defense in the country, and are among the best at pulling down offensive boards.

So why does Yale have at least a small chance of pulling a colossal upset? There are a couple of reasons. First off, Yale is an excellent defensive rebounding team. They play at a sluggish pace, something that’s critical for big tournament underdogs, and they have a 7-footer in Danny Wolf who can pose a threat defensively against Auburn’s front court. Auburn’s backcourt is also rather untrustworthy and can be a liability if Broome and Williams aren’t carrying the load.

I’m certainly not calling this a lock, but don’t be surprised if a Yale team that’s given top seeds trouble in the past is fighting hard against the Tigers with a chance to win late.

(3) Illinois vs. (14) Morehead State

This is the one that would be the most shocking, but it is also the most intriguing. Illinois is a really good team and are deserved Big Ten champs. They are elite offensively and have a star in Terrance Shannon Jr.

Illinois’ defense is what makes it vulnerable. The Illini rank 97th in adjusted defensive efficiency and are 179th in that same metric over their last 10 games.

Morehead State also profiles as a good giant killer candidate. The Eagles play at a slow pace (333rd in tempo), shoot a high volume of threes (25th in 3-point rate), make about 35% of them, and are good on the glass at both ends. It also helps that the Eagles rank ninth nationally in effective field-goal percentage.

Now, Morehead State is a 14-seed for a reason. There are flaws. They turn the ball over at an alarming rate and do send opponents to the free-throw line at a decent rate. However, Illinois ranks 360th in causing turnovers, which could mitigate Morehead State’s most glaring flaw.

There’s also some recent precedent that supports fading the Big Ten Tournament winner in the NCAA Tournament. Last year’s Big Ten tourney winner was none other than Purdue. The year before that, Iowa won the tournament and lost as a 5-seed to 12th-seed Richmond. That Hawkeyes team is also eerily similar to this year’s Illinois team. That Iowa team ranked third in adjusted offensive efficiency and 81st defensively.

Anyone else see a resemblance?

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