3 NFL Week 1 Bets to Fade (2024)

by Mike Fanelli |
Sep 07, 2024

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have three bets you should avoid making in Week 1. I also have three bets in the same games you should make instead. Let's dive into it.

NFL Week 1 Bets to Fade

Avoid Betting Nico Collins Under 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

The addition of Stefon Diggs has impacted the betting market. Yet, Nico Collins remains Houston's No. 1 wide receiver after averaging 86.5 receiving yards per game last season.
He averaged 90.1 yards per game in the 11 contests with Tank Dell in 2023, totaling 80+ yards in 63.6% of the matchups.
Collins obliterated the Colts last year, totaling seven receptions for 146 yards in Week 2 and nine receptions for 195 yards in Week 18.
Indianapolis had the eighth-highest target rate to outside pass-catchers last season (44%). Collins ran 80% of his route out wide in 2023.

Instead, Bet C.J. Stroud Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-165)

C.J. Stroud finished 13th in the NFL with 23 passing touchdowns and 15th in pass attempts (499) in 15 games as a rookie. He should be even better with the addition of Stefon Diggs.
After totaling zero touchdowns in Week 1, Stroud averaged 1.8 per game in his other 13 healthy contests last season. He had two or more touchdowns in 61.5% of those 13 games.
Indianapolis had no answers for Stroud in 2023. He had a 5.5% touchdown rate against them, totaling two touchdowns in both matchups.
The Colts gave up 21 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks last year, the 11th-fewest in the NFL. However, nearly 20% of them were from Stroud despite playing only 66 snaps with Tank Dell in the two games against Indianapolis.

Avoid Betting James Conner Under 1.5 Receptions (+125)

Trey Benson won't have a consistent role in 2024, especially early in the season. Therefore, James Conner will be the featured guy and see massive volume this year.
Last season, Conner averaged 2.1 receptions per game, totaling two or more in 53.9% of the contests.
Kyler Murray targeted a player out of the backfield on 18.7% of his pass attempts last year. Conner had an 18% target per route run rate in 2023.
The Bills will be without All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano. Buffalo gave up five receptions per game to running backs last season, the 10th-most in the NFL.

Instead, Bet Dalton Kincaid to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+165)

Dalton Kincaid had only two receiving touchdowns as a rookie but finished second on the team in receptions (73) and targets (91) while ranking third in routes run (424).
His role will expand after the Bills lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in the offseason. Furthermore, 17 of Buffalo's 29 receiving touchdowns from last year were by players no longer on the roster.
Both of Kincaid's touchdowns last season came at home against teams that struggled to defend tight ends. He scored against the Denver Broncos and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who both ranked in the top four in receiving touchdowns given up to tight ends.
The Cardinals surrendered the fourth-most touchdowns to tight ends in 2023 (seven). They also gave up the most red-zone touchdowns (26) and end-zone touchdowns (18) in the NFL.

Avoid Betting Mike Evans Under 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Mike Evans has averaged 75.8 receiving yards per game in his career, averaging 70+ yards per game in 70% of his seasons, including back-to-back years.
Evans averaged 73.8 yards per game last season, totaling 66 or more in 52.9% of the games, including six out of eight home contests.
The veteran is an elite downfield threat with big-play abilities. He had 140+ yards in four games last year, including the playoffs.
Washington gave up the most yards per game to wide receivers (186.3) and the fourth-most completions of 20+ air yards (31) last season.

Instead, Bet Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-140)

Baker Mayfield had a career-high 28 passing touchdowns last year, tossing two or more in nearly 60% of the regular season games.
He ended the year on fire, throwing two or more touchdowns in four of the final five regular season games. Mayfield also had three touchdowns in both playoff contests.
The Commanders surrendered the most touchdowns per game to quarterbacks last year (2.3), giving up two or more in 76.5% of their contests and four or more in 23.5% of the matchups.
More aggressive bettors should bet on Mayfield to have three or more touchdowns (+280) and four or more touchdowns (+1200). This game could turn into a shootout.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.