3 NFL Week 5 Bets to Fade (2024)

by Mike Fanelli |
Oct 05, 2024

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have three bets you should avoid making in Week 5. I also have three bets in the same games you should make instead. Let's dive into it!

NFL Week 5 Bets to Fade

Avoid Betting Brian Thomas Jr. Under 56.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Thomas has averaged 68.8 receiving yards per game, including 76 per game since Week 1. The rookie has had 86 or more yards in two of the past three games.
He has back-to-back games with nine targets, posting a 28% target per route run rate and 36.3% receiving yards market share over the past two weeks.
Indianapolis has given up the ninth-most yards per game to wide receivers over the first month (163.3). More importantly, use Cover-3 coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL (43.1%).
The rookie has the 11th-best target per route run rate (28%) and second-best yards per route run average (3.97) among 44 wide receivers with at least 30 routes against Cover-3 coverage this season.

Instead, Bet Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+100)

Lawrence has struggled to start the year, averaging one passing touchdown per game. However, he is coming off his best performance this season, totaling two touchdowns last week.
The veteran could have Evan Engram this week for the first time since Week 1 because of a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, Lawrence is starting to click with his star rookie wide receiver.
He has played well against the Colts in his career, averaging 1.8 touchdowns per game since his rookie year. Lawrence has two or more touchdowns in 75% of those games.
Indianapolis has surrendered the eighth-most touchdowns per game over the first month (1.5), giving up two in half of the contests. The other two games were against run-heavy quarterbacks Malik Willis and Justin Fields.

Avoid Betting Kenneth Walker Under 71.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Walker is fifth in the NFL in rushing yards per game (91.5), totaling 80 or more in every contest this season.
Last week, he had 80 yards on only 12 attempts (6.7 per attempt) despite facing a Detroit Lions run defense that held running backs to only 46 yards per game over the first three weeks.
The veteran leads the NFL in explosive run rate (15.6%) among running backs with at least 22 attempts. Meanwhile, the Giants have allowed a 7.7% explosive run rate or higher in half of their games.
Despite facing two awful rushing attacks the past two weeks, New York has surrendered 98.5 yards per game to running backs, including 108 or more in half of their contests.

Instead, Bet DK Metcalf Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Metcalf has the third-most receiving yards in the NFL over the first month. Furthermore, he has been unbelievable since the Week 1 matchup against Patrick Surtain II.
The superstar is second in the league to Nico Collins in yards over the past three weeks, averaging 112.3 per game, totaling 100 or more in every contest.
New York has struggled against opposing No. 1 receivers, giving up 66.3 yards per game, including 92 yards per contest over the past two weeks, surrendering 86 or more in both matchups.
More aggressive bettors should bet Metcalf's alternative lines of 100 or more yards (+340) and 110 or more (+475).

Avoid Betting Alvin Kamara Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Kamara has averaged 90.5 rushing yards per game this year, totaling 77 or more in every contest. However, the veteran has had an easy early season schedule.
The four teams he has faced all rank in the top half of the NFL in yards per game surrendered to running backs, including two top-seven teams. Combined, they have surrendered 110.5 yards per game.
By comparison, Kansas City has an elite run defense. They have given up the second-fewest yards per game to running backs (57), allowing 65 or fewer in every contest.
The Chiefs held Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, and J.K. Dobbins to 36.3 yards per game and 2.5 yards per attempt.

Instead, Bet Travis Kelce Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Kelce got off to a slow start this season, averaging 2.7 receptions on four targets for 23 receiving yards per game over the first three weeks, totaling 34 or fewer yards in every contest.
However, that changed after the Chiefs lost Rashee Rice last week. Kelce had seven receptions on nine targets for 89 receiving yards in Week 4.
New Orleans has surrendered 71 yards per game to tight ends since Week 1 despite Kyle Pitts having zero receptions against them last week.
The Saints gave up 10 receptions for 170 yards to Dallas Goedert in Week 3. The Philadelphia Eagles were without A.J. Brown (hamstring) and lost DeVonta Smith in the game to a concussion.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.