3 NFL Week 7 Bets to Fade (2024)

by Mike Fanelli |
Oct 19, 2024

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have three bets you should avoid making in Week 7. I also have three bets in the same games you should make instead. Let's dive into it!

NFL Week 7 Bets to Fade

Avoid Betting C.J. Stroud Under 257.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Stroud had only 192 passing yards last week. However, the superstar has averaged 262.8 yards on 34.7 attempts per game this season.
He has had 260 or more yards in half of the games, including 330 or more in back-to-back contests before last week's blowout win over the New England Patriots.
The Packers have given up 248.5 yards per game to quarterbacks this year despite facing awful passers like Anthony Richardson and Will Levis.
Green Bay has given up 260 or more yards in 66.7% of the games, including three of the past four weeks.

Instead, Bet Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-185)

Love has the second-most passing touchdowns this season (120), totaling only three fewer than Baker Mayfield despite playing in two fewer games.
He leads the NFL in touchdowns per game (three), totaling two or more in every game, including four last week against the Arizona Cardinals.
There have been 10 games where a quarterback had four or more touchdowns this year. Love and Mayfield are the only ones with more than one performance (two each).
The Texans have surrendered two touchdowns per game to quarterbacks, giving up two or more in 66.7% of the contests. Last week, Drake Maye had three touchdowns on 33 attempts in his first career start.

Avoid Betting Terry McLaurin Under 4.5 Receptions (+120)

McLaurin is Washington's clear-cut focal point in the passing game. He leads the team in receptions per game (4.8), averaging 1.3 more than any other Commanders and 2.3 more than any other wide receiver.
His 24.9% target share is 8.3% higher than anyone else on the team. Furthermore, McLaurin's 25% target per route run rate is first among Commanders with at least 20 targets.
The Panthers' run defense has been awful, but their pass defense has also struggled. They've given up 11.3 receptions per game to wide receivers this season.
Six wide receivers have had five or more receptions against Carolina in 2024, including two in the game two weeks ago.

Instead, Bet Chuba Hubbard Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Hubbard has averaged 17.5 attempts for 101.8 yards per game in the four contests with Andy Dalton under center, totaling 92 or more in every matchup.
He has the second-most yards over the past four weeks, posting the third-highest yards-per-attempt average (5.8) among running backs with at least 30 attempts.
The Commandersâ€™ run defense has been almost as bad as their pass defense, giving up 119.2 yards per game to running backs, including 93 or more in every contest.
Washington has surrendered 120 yards or more to running backs in three of the past four games. Unfortunately, they lost their best defensive lineman, Jonathan Allen, to a season-ending pectoral injury.

Avoid Betting Lamar Jackson Under 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Jackson has averaged 67.2 rushing yards per game this season despite Derrick Henry leading the NFL in yards per game (117.3). The 67.2 average is his highest mark since winning MVP in 2019.
The superstar has had at least 54 yards in 66.7% of the games, including three of the past four weeks. Jackson has had 87 or more yards in two contests this year.
He has the second-highest explosive run rate in the NFL among players with at least 60 attempts (9.4%). Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have given up the third-highest explosive run rate (7.6%).
Tampa Bay has surrendered the fifth-most yards to quarterbacks (31.2 per game). They gave up 88 yards to Jayden Daniels in Week 1, the only quarterback in the NFL as dynamic and explosive as Jackson.

Instead, Bet Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115)

As great as Mayfield was last year, he has been even better in 2024. The veteran leads the NFL with 15 passing touchdowns.
He has averaged 2.5 touchdowns per game this season, totaling two or more in 66.7% of the games, including three consecutive contests.
There have been 10 games where a quarterback had four or more touchdowns this year. Mayfield and Jordan Love are the only ones with more than one performance (two each).
The Ravens have given up the fifth-most touchdowns to quarterbacks (1.8 per game), surrendering two or more in half of their contests, including seven over the past two weeks.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.