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4 Golfers to Fade for the 2023 Tour Championship

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The 2022-2023 PGA Tour season will come to a dramatic conclusion this week with the Tour Championship at the East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.

There's a great deal at stake for the 30 players who qualified for this event by making it through the first three tournaments of the four-week FedEx Cup Playoffs. The winner of the Tour Championship will receive $18 million and a five-year PGA Tour exemption. Second place is worth $6.5 million. Every player in the field will earn at least $500,000 for making it this far, along with a two-year PGA Tour exemption and a 2024 Masters invitation.

The Tour Championship uses a unique “starting strokes” system that rewards players based on the number of FedEx Cup points they’ve accumulated throughout the season. The FedEx Cup points leader starts at -10. The No. 2 player starts at -8, the No. 3 player starts at -7, the No. 4 player starts at -6, and the No. 5 player starts at -5. The rest of the field is sorted into groups of five, with groups starting at -4, -3, -2, -1 and even par. Bear in mind that betting odds for the Tour Championship take the starting strokes system into account.

The field features betting favorite Scottie Scheffler, reigning Masters champion Jon Rahm and defending FedEx Cup champion Rory McIlroy. Will one of the big names claim the title, or will we see a less heralded but red-hot player such as Lucas Glover or Brian Harman win at East Lake?

Let's look at the betting outlook for a few of the players who'll be competing in this week's Tour Championship.

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2023 Tour Championship Odds & Picks

Taylor Moore 2023 Tour Championship Betting Outlook

Moore has had a roller-coaster season. In 29 events, he’s had 12 top-25 finishes and 10 missed cuts. He seemed to lose his way at last week’s BMW Championship, finishing at +18 with rounds of 72, 74, 80 and 72. Moore has putted well this season, but he’s probably one of the worst ballstrikers in the field. With the starting-strokes system putting him nine shots behind Scottie Scheffler and three shots out of the top 10, there’s little reason to back Moore this week.

2023 Tour Championship Betting Advice

Moore looked far too wobbly at last week’s BMW Championship to merit an investment. Fade.

Nick Taylor 2023 Tour Championship Betting Outlook

A first-timer at the Tour Championship, Taylor has the longest odds in the field on some betting sites, including DraftKings and Caesars. With the starting-strokes system putting him nine strokes behind favorite Scottie Scheffler to start the tournament, betting Taylor to win would be lighting money on fire, and there’s not much reason to take him at +1100 (DraftKings) to finish in the top 10. Since the PGA Championship, Taylor has missed the cut in five of his last nine events. The Canadian rolled in a lengthy putt for a memorable playoff win over Tommy Fleetwood in the Canadian Open back in June, but Taylor has given us little reason to get excited ever since.

2023 Tour Championship Betting Advice

If you’re a Nick Taylor Fan Club member, you might consider betting him at +1100 (DraftKings) to finish on top of the rest-of-the-world group in the nationality-props category, since the starting-strokes system will put him only one shot behind Sungjae Im, Corey Conners, Tom Kim and Si Woo Kim; in a tie with Jason Day; and one shot ahead of Emiliano Grillo. But the smarter move is to fade Taylor entirely.

Sepp Straka 2023 Tour Championship Betting Outlook

Just call him Streaky Straka. The 6-3, 235-pound Austrian missed the cut at the U.S. Open and then posted uninspiring T38 and T64 finishes in his next two events before winning the John Deere Classic and then tying for second at the Open Championship two weeks later. In the three events he’s played since returning from England, he’s finished no better than 37th. Handicapped by beginning the tournament at even par in starting strokes, 10 shots behind favorite Scottie Schefler, Straka doesn’t seem like a wise investment this week in Atlanta.

2023 Tour Championship Betting Advice

Fade the hulking Straka this week.

Jason Day 2023 Tour Championship Betting Outlook

Day is a world-class player who was red-hot in January, February and March. Alas, since winning the AT&T Byron Nelson in May, the native Australian hasn’t been very shap, aside from a T2 finish at the Open Championship. In his last six tournaments on American soil, Day has missed three cuts, and his best finish was a tie for 45th. His +7 finish at last week’s BMW Championship put him near the bottom of the field, and he broke par in only one of his four rounds. Because of his name brand, Day has shorter odds than he should this week, so there’s little reason to back him.

2023 Tour Championship Betting Advice

With his poor recent form, Day should be faded entirely.

More 2023 Tour Championship Picks & Predictions

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