Well, folks, it's finally upon us. Canada (1-1-0-1) and the United States of America (2-0-0-1) were +150 co-favorites entering the 4 Nations Tournament, but it still feels surreal that the two rivals will square off in the championship tonight. Below I'll touch on the betting odds, before diving into my favorite wagers on the side and total. Puck drop is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET from the TD Garden in Boston, MA.
Thursday’s Best 4 Nations Final Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Team Canada (-112) vs. Team USA (-108) | O/U 5.5 (+110/-130)
The United States won the round-robin meeting against Canada on Saturday, beating their northern neighbor 3-1. I'm going to run it back with the USA and lock them in on the moneyline (-108).
We can sit here and debate the roster differences (Cale Makar in, Charlie McAvoy out), or how the game will be played on American soil, but ultimately, this contest boils down to two factors in my mind: goaltending and physicality.
The United States, in my opinion, has huge edges in both categories, and that's why I believe they'll prevail in this coin-flip game. Canada's Jordan Binnington has looked sharp at times, but at the end of the day, he brings in a 2.60 GAA and an underwhelming .892 SV%. I'm not afraid to say it, the American forwards are just as talented as Canada's, and they're certainly more physical with the Tkachuk brothers leading the way. They should manage to expose Binner for a second time this tournament.
Defense and goaltending win championships and this is where the USA holds significant advantages. Give me the Red, White & Blue to take it home tonight.
Bet: USA Moneyline (-108)
I thought about trying to make the contrarian argument for betting the Over at plus-money. However, with the way that Connor Hellebuyck is playing, there's no way that I'm taking the Over. Helle has been lights out this tournament, going 2-0-0 with a 1.00 GAA and .957 SV%. Overall, the USA has posted a tournament-leading 1.33 GAA.
On top of that, for as talented as each of these power-play units is, the penalty-killers have been even better. Both the USA and Canada have penalty-killing rates of 100%, which are clearly first overall in the tournament.
While I was ragging on Binnington above, we can't forget that he's a Stanley Cup winner (2019 with St. Louis). This is one of the biggest games of his life, and being that he's a well-documented competitor, we should expect to see his best effort tonight. I think we'll see another low-scoring game that lands in the range of 3-1, 3-2, or 2-1. I'm taking the Under.
Bet: Under 5.5 Goals (-130)
