4 NFL Week 10 Bets to Fade (2023)

by Mike Fanelli |
Nov 11, 2023

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. Itâ€™s also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have four bets you should avoid making this weekend. I also have four bets in the same games you should make instead. Letâ€™s dive into it!

NFL Week 10 Bets to Fade

All stats are according to Fantasy Points Data.

Avoid Betting Hunter Henry Under 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Henry has averaged 30.8 receiving yards per game. He had 27 or more in three straight games and 66.7% of the contests this year.
Last week, he had the second-most routes run on the team and 39 yards in the first game without Kendrick Bourne and DeVante Parker. Both wonâ€™t play in Week 10.
The Colts have given up the fourth-most yards to tight ends this season, surrendering 58.9 per game.
Indianapolis has given up 49 or more yards to tight ends in all but one game. Last week, they surrendered a season-high 94 yards to the Carolina Panthersâ€™ tight ends.

Instead, Bet Michael Pittman Jr. Over 5.5 Receptions (-140)

Unfortunately, rookie wide receiver Josh Downs isnâ€™t expected to play with a knee injury, creating more targets for the former USC star.
Pittman has averaged 6.4 receptions per game this season. He has averaged 7.2 receptions per game with Gardner Minshew starting, totaling eight or more in four of five contests.
The Patriots have allowed the sixth-most receptions (13.8 per game) and the fourth-most targets (21.6 per game) to wide receivers, including 16 or more receptions in half their games.
They have given up 16 or more receptions to wide receivers in back-to-back contests. Furthermore, No. 1 wide receivers have averaged 6.3 receptions per game against New England this year.

Avoid Betting Kyle Philips Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Most of his career has been limited by injuries. However, Philips had 24 or more receiving yards in back-to-back games despite playing 30% of the snaps or less in both contests.
Last week, he led the team with 68 yards on only four receptions and five targets. Meanwhile, Philips should see more action with Treylon Burks (concussion) not playing this week.
Philips has run 71.2% of his routes from the slot this season. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have the 12th-highest slot target rate in the NFL (33.3%).
Last week, Noah Brown ran 71% of his routes from the slot and had the second-most yards for the week (153) against Tampa Bay.

Instead, Bet DeAndre Hopkins Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Hopkins has averaged 70.5 receiving yards per game this season despite inconsistent quarterback play, totaling 60 or more in all but three contests.
He has played well with Will Levis, averaging 94 yards per game. Hopkins had 60 or more in both games started by the rookie.
Tampa Bay has given up the third-most yards to wide receivers this year, surrendering 206.5 per game. Theyâ€™ve allowed 217 or more yards four times, including a season-high 335 in Week 9.
Last week, Tank Dell had 114 yards against the Buccaneers. He was one of three Houston Texans with over 100 yards against Tampa Bay.

Avoid Betting Breece Hall Under 62.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Despite playing half the year on a snap count, Hall has averaged 61.6 rushing yards per game this season. He has two games with over 120 yards.
Since coming off the snap count, Hall has accounted for 78.5% of the backfield rushing attempts and has averaged 70.8 yards per game.
The Raiders had surrendered the most yards to running backs entering Week 10, giving up 117.8 per contest.
Furthermore, theyâ€™ve struggled lately. Over the past three weeks, Las Vegas has surrendered 153.3 yards per game to running backs, giving up 137 or more twice.

Instead, Bet Josh Jacobs Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Jacobs started the year slowly after missing training camp. He had only 46 rushing yards over the first two games.
However, Jacobs has averaged 68 yards per game over the past five weeks, totaling 69 or more three times.
Last week, he had a season-high 26 rushing attempts for 98 yards in Antonio Pierceâ€™s first game as the head coach.
The Jets have surrendered the 12th-most yards to running backs, allowing 96.6 per game. Theyâ€™ve given up 134 or more yards in nearly half the games this season, including two weeks ago.

Avoid Betting Javonte Williams Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Williams has averaged 51 rushing yards per game this year, totaling 52 or fewer in all but two contests.
More importantly, he isnâ€™t the featured running back. Williams has played over 53% of the snaps in only one game this season.
While he had a season-high 85 yards in the teamâ€™s last game, it took him 27 attempts to reach that total. Furthermore, Williams averaged a season-low 3.1 yards per attempt in that game.
Buffalo has been better at stopping the run lately. Over the past three weeks, theyâ€™ve surrendered only 53.3 yards per game to running backs, giving up 50 or fewer twice.

Instead, Bet Dalton Kincaid Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

The rookie started the year slow, averaging only 23.6 receiving yards per game over the first five weeks.
However, Kincaid has been outstanding since Dawson Knox suffered a wrist injury, averaging 73.7 yards per game. The rookie had at least 65 yards in all three contests.
Last week, he led the Bills in receptions (10), targets (11), and target per route run rate (27%) while finishing second in yards behind Stefon Diggs (86 vs. 81).
Denver has given up the most yards to tight ends this season, allowing 70.1 per game. They have surrendered at least 81 yards to tight ends in four of their past five games, including 111 or more twice.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.