4 NFL Week 12 Bets to Fade (2023)

by Mike Fanelli |
Nov 25, 2023

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have four bets you should avoid making this weekend. I also have four bets in the same games you should make instead. Let's dive into it.

NFL Week 12 Bets to Fade

All stats are according to Fantasy Points Data.

Thielen has caught 42 or receiving fewer yards in two of the past three weeks. Yet, he got back on track last week against a talented Dallas Cowboys defense with 74 receiving yards.
More importantly, the veteran has averaged 72.6 yards per game this season. Thielen has had at least 72 or more yards in 75% of the contests since Week 2.
He has a 35.4% receiving yards market share, the 10th-highest in the NFL entering this week.
The Titans have surrendered the ninth-most yards to wide receivers this year (181.7 per game), giving up 195 or more in half of the contests.

The odds on this prop bet are ridiculous. There is no way Henry should be even money to score an anytime touchdown.
He leads Tennessee in rushing touchdowns and offensive scores this season (four). Furthermore, the veteran has accounted for 67% of the team's rushing scores.
Henry is the Titans' red zone running back. He has accounted for 71.4% of the team's rushing attempts inside the five-yard line and 75% from inside the 10-yard line.
Carolina has given up a league-high 13 rushing touchdowns to running backs this year, surrendering at least one in 80% of the contests and two or more in 50% of the games.

Last week, Shakir led the Bills' wide receivers in receiving yards (115) and finished second in targets only to Stefon Diggs.
Despite starting the season with a limited role, the second-year receiver has still averaged 33 yards per game in 2023.
Furthermore, he has averaged 72 yards per game over the past four weeks with Dawson Knox hurt, totaling 57 or more in all but one matchup.
The Eagles have surrendered the fifth-most yards to wide receivers this year (192.2 per game), including 222 yards per contest over the past contests.

Swift has averaged 19.7 receiving yards per game this season despite barely playing in Week 1. More importantly, the Eagles have used him more in the passing game lately.
Swift has averaged 26.1 yards per game since Week 3. He totaled 23 or more yards in 71.4% of those contests, including two straight.
The Bills have given up the second-most receiving yards to running backs this year (54.5 per game). Over the past two weeks, they've surrendered 62.5 yards per game to running backs.
Buffalo has repeatedly gotten attacked out of the backfield. They have the second-highest targeted rate to players lining up in the backfield (21.3%) this season.

Ford has averaged 56.3 rushing yards per game this year, including 58.6 per game since Nick Chubb suffered a season-ending injury.
The second-year player is the lead running back, averaging more attempts (13.1 vs. 10.3) and yards (52.6 vs. 33) per game than Kareem Hunt in the eight contests they've played together.
He has had more 70 yards in nearly half the games since Chubb's injury, including 107 yards two weeks ago against a talented Baltimore Ravens defense.
Denver has given up the most yards to running backs this season (138 per game), surrendering over 150 yards in 40% of games, including two straight.

Sutton has eight receiving touchdowns this year, the second-most in the NFL behind Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill.
He has a touchdown in five consecutive games and seven of the past eight contests. Furthermore, Sutton has more touchdowns than the rest of the team's wide receivers combined.
The Browns have given up only six receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this season, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. However, they've struggled lately.
Cleveland has surrendered five touchdowns to wide receivers over the past five weeks, giving up two scores in two games despite facing multiple awful passing attacks.

Last week, Hockenson only had 55 receiving yards, his lowest total since Week 6. However, he has averaged 66.9 yards per game this year.
Hockenson had at least 69 receiving yards in the previous four games, totaling 86 or more in all but one. More importantly, the veteran has been a go-to target for quarterback Joshua Dobbs.
In the three contests with Dobbs, Hockenson leads the team in target share (33.3%), receiving yards market share (35.6%), and yards per game (86).
The Bears have struggled to slow down tight ends heavily involved in the offense, giving up 69 yards to Travis Kelce and 77 yards to Logan Thomas this season.

Dobbs is third among quarterbacks in rushing attempts (70) and touchdowns (six) this year. He has a rushing touchdown in over half of the games, including five straight.
More importantly, the veteran has had at least seven rushing attempts and a touchdown in every game with the Vikings.
He has taken on more of a role near the goal line. Dobbs has accounted for 40% of Minnesota's rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line over the past two weeks, which is a team-high.
The Bears haven't given up a rushing touchdown to quarterbacks this season. However, they haven't faced a rushing quarterback like Dobbs. Chicago did give up an NFL-high nine rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks in 2022.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.