4 NFL Week 13 Bets to Fade (2023)

by Mike Fanelli |
Dec 02, 2023

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have four bets you should avoid making this weekend. I also have four bets in the same games you should make instead. Let's dive into it!

NFL Week 13 Bets to Fade

All stats are according to Fantasy Points Data.

Avoid Betting Sam Howell Under 262.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Howell has averaged 278.3 passing yards per game this season, totaling 290 or more in nearly 60% of the contests. Furthermore, he has had 300 or more yards in four of the past five games.
The second-year quarterback leads the NFL in attempts (486), completions (323), and yards (3,339). He has over 500 yards more than Justin Herbert.
Miami has surrendered only 199 yards per game with Jalen Ramsey playing. However, they faced Mac Jones, Aidan O'Connell, and Tim Boyle in three of those four contests.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins have surrendered 6.9 yards per pass attempt this year. Howell has averaged 40.5 attempts per game this season. At that average, he should have 280 yards in this matchup.

Instead, Bet Tyreek Hill to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-150)

Hill has been the clear-cut top wide receiver in the NFL this year, totaling a league-high 10 receiving touchdowns.
The superstar is on track to have 16 touchdowns in 2023, a new career high. More importantly, he has accounted for 23.8% of the team's offensive touchdowns this season.
Furthermore, Hill has found the end zone at least once in 81.8% of the games, including six of the past seven contests.
Washington has surrendered 18 touchdowns to wide receivers this year (1.5 per game), the most in the NFL. Wide receivers have had three or more touchdowns in 25% of their matchups against the Commanders.

Avoid Betting Kenny Pickett Under 196.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Pickett has averaged only 181.8 passing yards per game this season. However, he averaged 228.6 yards per game over his first five healthy contests, totaling 222 or more in every matchup.
Last week, the second-year quarterback had 278 passing yards in the team's first game without offensive coordinator Matt Canada, a season-high and the second-most in his career.
The Cardinals have surrendered 2,854 yards to quarterbacks this year (237.8 per game), the 12th-most in the NFL.
They have given up 200 or more yards to quarterbacks in 83.3% of the contests in 2023, including 283.5 per game over the past two weeks.

Instead, Bet Najee Harris Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

While some believe Jaylen Warren is the better running back, Harris has the higher rushing yards per game average this season (54.4 vs. 49.3) but the lower prop number.
More importantly, Pittsburgh's rushing attack has been on fire lately. Over the past four weeks, Harris has averaged 71.3 yards per game, totaling 69 or more three times.
The Cardinals have arguably the worst run defense in the NFL this year. They have given up the second-most yards to running backs (120.4 per game).
Arizona gave up 226 yards to the Los Angeles Rams backfield in Week 12. Kyren Williams had 16 attempts for 143 yards, while Royce Freeman had 13 attempts for 77 yards.

Avoid Betting Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+165)

Last week, Stafford had four passing touchdowns against the Arizona Cardinals, a season-high. Furthermore, it was the most touchdowns he had in a game since Week 6 of the 2021 season.
However, the veteran averaged only one touchdown per game before last week, throwing more than one in only one contest.
The Browns have arguably the top pass defense in the league. They have surrendered only 10 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks (0.9 per game), the second-fewest in the NFL.
Cleveland has held quarterbacks to zero passing touchdowns in 36.4% of the games, including two of the past four contests. By comparison, they've given up more than one passing score in only 27.3% of the games.

Instead, Bet Kyren Williams Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Williams had 16 rushing attempts for 143 yards (8.9 yards per attempt) last week in his first game back from an ankle injury.
He has averaged 99.8 yards per game this season. Williams has totaled over 100 yards in half the contests, including two straight.
Meanwhile, the Browns' run defense has been awful lately. They have given up 117.7 yards per game to running backs over the past three weeks.
Cleveland has also given up big plays to running backs. Over the past three contests, the Browns have the highest explosive run rate allowed (10.1%) in the NFL.

Avoid Betting Calvin Ridley Under 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Despite having an up-and-down season, Ridley has averaged 60.3 receiving yards per game in 2023. He has totaled 83 or more yards in nearly half of the games this year.
Ridley has averaged 73.8 yards per game over the past four contests, totaling 83 or more in all but one matchup.
More importantly, he has been outstanding with Zay Jones playing. Ridley has averaged 89.4 yards per game in the five matchups with Jones active, totaling 89 or more in all but one contest.
The Bengals have surrendered the 10th-most yards to wide receivers entering Week 13 (168.6 per game), giving up 206 or more in two of their past three games.

Instead, Bet Evan Engram Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

While Engram hasn't scored a touchdown this season, he has the sixth-most receiving yards among tight ends (47.6 per game).
Engram has had at least 45 yards in 63.6% of the games this year, including last week. Furthermore, he has more games with over 56 yards (four) than under 41 (three).
Cincinnati has surrendered 757 yards to tight ends in 2023 (68.8 per game), including the most (82.3 per game) over the past four weeks.
The Bengals gave up 120 receiving yards to Pat Freiermuth in Week 12. He had only 60 yards for the season entering that game. Last week was the second time they've given up at least 120 yards to a tight end over the past five contests.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.