4 NFL Week 14 Bets to Fade (2023)

by Mike Fanelli |
Dec 09, 2023

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have four bets you should avoid making this weekend. I also have four bets in the same games you should make instead. Let's dive into it!

NFL Week 14 Bets to Fade

All stats are according to Fantasy Points Data.

Avoid Betting Tanner Hudson Under 23.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Hudson has averaged 32.8 receiving yards per game this season despite having a limited role to start the year.
The veteran tight end has averaged 36 yards per game over the past five weeks, totaling 33 or more yards in all but one contest.
He has the highest target per route run rate among Bengals, with at least 60 routes over the past five weeks (35%). By comparison, Ja'Marr Chase has a 21% rate during those five games.
Indianapolis has surrendered the fifth-most yards per game to tight ends (59), including 68 per game over their past four matchups.

Instead, Bet Ja'Marr Chase Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Chase has had at least 81 yards in both Jake Browning starts. By comparison, Chase averaged 91.2 yards per game in the nine contests Burrow finished this season.
The superstar wide receiver has more games this year with 100 or more yards (five) than under 70 (four).
Indianapolis has given up 148.4 yards per game to wide receivers, ranking 14th in the NFL. However, they've struggled with No. 1 wide receivers lately.
Over the past two weeks, the Colts gave up 70 yards to Mike Evans and 75 to DeAndre Hopkins.

Avoid Betting Desmond Ridder Under 194.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Ridder hasn't had more than 169 passing yards since Week 7. However, the second-year quarterback has been in and out of the lineup.
He has averaged 213.2 yards per game in the nine contests he played start to finish, totaling 200 or more yards in half of those matchups.
The Buccaneers have given up the fourth-most yards per game to quarterbacks (276.4), including 320 or more in nearly half of their contests this season.
Tampa Bay gave up 250 yards to Ridder in the Week 7 game. They've also surrendered 292.5 yards per game to quarterbacks since the matchup against the Falcons.

Instead, Bet Bijan Robinson Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-130)

Robinson had only one rushing attempt in the Week 7 matchup because of migraines. Yet, the star running back has averaged 15.6 attempts per game since that contest.
Arthur Smith has given Robinson more work lately. He has averaged 18.7 attempts per game over the past three contests, totaling 16 or more in every one.
The Buccaneers won't have Devin White for the second straight game. They won't have both White and Lavonte David for the third consecutive matchup.
Expect Atlanta to take advantage of Tampa Bay's struggling run defense. They've given up 27.3 attempts and 127 yards per game to running backs over the past three weeks.

Avoid Betting Patrick Mahomes Under 35.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

Despite having a "down" year, Mahomes has averaged 37 pass attempts per game. He has 38 or more in nearly 60% of the contests.
Kansas City will be without Isiah Pacheco for this matchup. That should lead to more attempts for the superstar, as the run game won't be as effective.
Mahomes has averaged 46 attempts per game in his past three meetings against the Bills, totaling at least 40 attempts in every matchup.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.3 attempts per game against Buffalo this season. However, they've had 36 or more attempts in four of the past eight contests against the Bills.

Instead, Bet Jerick McKinnon Over 14.5 Receiving yards (-120)

McKinnon missed the past two games with a groin injury but is ready to play Sunday. He has averaged 15.5 receiving yards per game this year, totaling 18 or more in 60% of the contests.
Without Isiah Pacheco, McKinnon will see more snaps. In his past two meetings against Buffalo, McKinnon averaged four receptions on five targets for 41.5 yards per game.
The Bills have the second-highest backfield target rate in the NFL this season (20.9%), only behind the New York Jets.
Buffalo has surrendered the fourth-most receptions (5.7), targets (7.4), and receiving yards (46.6) per game to running backs in 2023.

Avoid Betting Tua Tagovailoa Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+140)

Tagovailoa has averaged two passing touchdowns per game this year. However, he had more than two in only 25% of the games.
After averaging 2.3 touchdowns per game over the first eight weeks, Tagovailoa has averaged only 1.5 touchdowns per game over the past four contests.
The Titans have a poor pass defense but don't give up touchdowns. They've surrendered the ninth-fewest touchdowns per game to quarterbacks (1.2) in the NFL entering Week 14.
Opposing quarterbacks haven't had more than two touchdowns in a game against Tennessee this season. Furthermore, the Titans have held quarterbacks with a touchdown in 25% of their matchups.

Instead, Bet Tyreek Hill Over 106.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Hill leads the NFL with 123.4 receiving yards per game this year. He is the only player with an average over 100 yards per game.
The superstar has more games with 145 or more yards (six), including two of three since the bye week, than with under 110 (five).
He doesn't need a high target share to hit this total. Hill averages 109 yards per game in the four contests without double-digit targets this season, including 157 last week on seven targets.
Tennessee has given up the sixth-most yards per game to wide receivers (179.5) in 2023. Last week, Michael Pittman Jr. had 105 yards against the Titans.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.