4 NFL Week 15 Bets to Fade (2023)

by Mike Fanelli |
Dec 16, 2023

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have four bets you should avoid making this weekend. I also have four bets in the same games you should make instead. Let's dive into it!

NFL Week 15 Bets to Fade

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | Stats are courtesy of to Fantasy Points Data

Avoid Betting Jahmyr Gibbs Under 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Despite totaling 42 or fewer rushing yards in three of his first four career contests, Jahmyr Gibbs has averaged 62.9 yards per game this season.
He has averaged 58.6 yards per game since David Montgomery returned from an injury in Week 10, totaling 54 or more yards in all but one contest.
The rookie has more games this year with 60 or more yards (six) than under 54 (four).
Denver has surrendered the most yards per game to running backs (124.7), including 116 or more in nearly half of their matchups.

Instead, Bet Courtland Sutton to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+110)

Courtland Sutton is second in the NFL with 10 receiving touchdowns, already blowing past his previous career high of six in 2019.
He is responsible for 43.% of Russell Wilson's passing touchdowns this season. No other Bronco has more than three receiving touchdowns.
Furthermore, Sutton has accounted for 62.5% of the team's touchdowns by wide receivers. Brandon Johnson is the only other wide receiver on the team with more than one (three).
The Lions have given up the third-most touchdowns to wide receivers this year (1.2 per game). They've surrendered 1.6 touchdowns to wide receivers since their Week 9 bye.

Avoid Betting Drake London Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Last week, Drake London had 172 receiving yards against an awful Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense at home. However, his home/road splits are massive.
London averages a 24% target share, a 26% target per route run rate, a 76.6% catch rate and 88.8 yards per game in six home contests this season.
However, he averages a 19.9% target share, a 21% target per route run rate, a 57.1% catch rate and 35.3 yards per game in six road contests this year.
The Panthers have surrendered the fifth-fewest yards to wide receivers in 2023. They've held opposing No. 1 wide receivers to under 50 yards in three of the past four games.

Instead, Bet Bijan Robinson to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+125)

Bijan Robinson has a team-high seven offensive touchdowns this season, accounting for 29.2% of Atlanta's total.
He is second on the team in rushing touchdowns (four) behind Desmond Ridder (five). However, Robinson is first in receiving touchdowns (three).
The rookie has three touchdowns since the Falcons' Week 11 bye. He has scored in two of the past three games and four of the past six.
Carolina has given up the most touchdowns to running backs (20), ranking first in rushing scores (17) and seventh in receiving scores (three). Robinson also had a touchdown in the Week 1 matchup against the Panthers.

Avoid Betting Sam Howell Under 38.5 Pass Attempts (+100)

Sam Howell burned me in Week 13, totaling a season-low 23 pass attempts in the team's last game. Yet, I'm doubling down with the second-year quarterback.
He has averaged 39.2 attempts per game this year, the most in the NFL. Howell has totaled 39 or more attempts in nearly 70% of the contests, including six straight before the Week 13 matchup.
Washington is a near-touchdown underdog and won't have Brain Robinson Jr. because of a hamstring injury. Therefore, expect Howell to throw more than usual.
Opposing quarterbacks have been pass-happy since the Rams' Week 10 bye, averaging 43 attempts per game, totaling 40 or more in all four contests.

Instead, Bet Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-215)

Matthew Stafford had one or fewer passing touchdowns in eight of his first nine games. Yet, the veteran quarterback has averaged 1.6 touchdowns per game this season.
He has the second-most touchdowns over the past three weeks, averaging 3.3 per game despite facing two talented pass defenses in back-to-back weeks.
Washington has allowed the most touchdowns per game to quarterbacks (2.3), surrendering two or more in nine of their past 10 games. The only exception was Mac Jones.
The Commanders have more games this year, giving up three or more touchdowns (five) than less than two (three). I would bet Stafford over 2.5 touchdowns if you can find it.

Avoid Betting D'Andre Swift Under 58.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Dâ€™Andre Swift has only 52 rushing yards over the past two weeks, totaling 39 or fewer in both matchups. However, the veteran running back faced two of the top run defenses in the NFL.
He has averaged 68.3 yards per game since taking over as the starter, totaling 62 or more in half of those contests. Swift had 76 or more yards in back-to-back games before the mini-slump.
The veteran has been the featured back since Week 2. He has accounted for 72% of the backfield's rushing attempts since taking over as the starter.
Seattle has given up the 11th-most yards to running backs entering Week 15 (94.5 per game). However, they've surrendered 127 yards per game over the past seven weeks, giving up 133 or more in over half the contests.

Instead, Bet D.K. Metcalf Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Last week, D.K. Metcalf got ejected after totaling 52 receiving yards against the San Francisco 49ers. Yet, he has averaged 78 yards per game this year against everyone except San Francisco.
Metcalf has had at least 94 yards in three consecutive games not against the 49ers, totaling 67 or more in 70% of the non-San Francisco matchups this season.
He had 10 receptions on 13 targets for 177 yards in his last matchup against the Eagles, hauling in multiple receptions of over 30 yards.
The Eagles have given up the third-most yards per game to wide receivers (193.1). They've surrendered 98.8 yards per game to opposing No. 1 wide receivers over their past five contest, giving up 71 or more to all but one.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.