4 NFL Week 17 Bets to Fade (2023)

by Mike Fanelli |
Dec 30, 2023

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have four bets you should avoid making this weekend. I also have four bets in the same games you should make instead. Let's dive into it.

NFL Week 17 Bets to Fade

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook | All stats are according to Fantasy Points Data.

Avoid Betting Jahmyr Gibbs Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Despite splitting the backfield with David Montgomery, Gibbs has averaged 67.7 rushing yards per game since the veteran returned from a rib injury.
Gibbs has had 54 or more yards in 69.2% of the games this season, including all but one since Montgomery's return. He has 60 or more yards in four consecutive games.
The Cowboys have surrendered 87.8 yards per game to running backs. However, they've given up 113.2 yards per game over their past contests.
Dallas has allowed the 12th-highest explosive run rate (5.3%), sixth-highest yards after contact per attempt (2.87) and the second-lowest stuff rate (34.4%) over the past two weeks.

Instead, Bet CeeDee Lamb to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-155)

Lamb has already matched his career-high in receiving touchdowns (nine) from this past year. The superstar also has two rushing scores, the second-most on the team behind Tony Pollard.
He has found the end zone in 60% of the games this season, including seven consecutive matchups.
Detroit has given up 18 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, the fourth-most in the NFL. They've surrendered at least one touchdown in six of the past seven games.
The superstar is also a good bet to score the first Dallas touchdown (+290). He has the first Cowboys touchdown in 40% of the games, including four straight.

Avoid Betting Brock Purdy Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+165)

This past week, Purdy had zero passing touchdowns for only the second time in his career as the starter. Yet, bettors shouldn't care about that performance.
Despite Week 16â€™s outing, Purdy still has the second-most touchdowns in the NFL and averages 1.9 per game. He had four touchdowns in two of the previous three games.
Purdy had two or more touchdowns in five of the past six games before last week. He has thrown two or more scores in 70% of the games as the starter in his career.
The Commanders have surrendered the most passing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season, giving up 2.2 per game, including two or more in nearly 80% of their matchups since Week 1.

Instead, Bet Brandon Aiyuk Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Aiyuk leads the 49ers in receiving yards (1,203). He ranks eighth in the NFL in yards per game (85.9).
He has had 76 or more yards in half of the games this year. Furthermore, Aiyuk has totaled at least 109 yards in six games, including 113 this past week.
The Commanders have surrendered the second-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers (191.3), giving up 205 or more in three of the past four contests.
Washington plays man coverage at the eighth-highest rate. Aiyuk has dominated against man coverage, posting the sixth-highest yards per route run (3.4) among players with at least 85 routes.

Avoid Betting Austin Ekeler Under 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Despite having an injury-plagued down season, Ekeler has averaged 47.6 rushing yards per game in 2023.
He has 51 or more yards in two of the three games since Justin Herbert got hurt, including against the Broncos in Week 14 on only 10 rushing attempts.
This past week, Ekeler reclaimed the featured role, accounting for 83.3% of the backfield rushing attempts. He was the only Chargers running back with more than one rushing yard (65).
Denver has surrendered the most rushing yards per game to running backs (123.6) this year, including 115.3 per contest over the past seven weeks.

Instead, Bet Gerald Everett Over 4.5 Receptions (-110)

Everett has been Easton Stick's go-to target, averaging 5.7 receptions and eight targets per game over the past three weeks, totaling at least five receptions in every contest.
Los Angeles will be without Keenan Allen (heel) and Joshua Palmer (concussion) for this game, which should lead to more targets for Everett.
Over the past two weeks, Everett has led the team in target share (24.6%), target per route run rate (33%), and first-read target share (24.4%).
The Broncos have surrendered the fourth-most receptions per game to tight ends (5.9), giving up five or more in 73.3% of their matchups this season.

Avoid Betting Justin Jefferson Under 72.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

While the Vikings will start Jaren Hall at quarterback, Sunday will be their first matchup without T.J. Hockenson this year.
Jefferson has averaged 128 receiving yards per game in the six contests that he finished this season, totaling 85 or more in every matchup.
While Jefferson didn't play in the Week 8 contest against Green Bay, K.J. Osborn, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison all had 80 or more yards in that game.
The superstar has owned the Packers since his rookie year, averaging 106.5 yards per game. Jefferson has had 169 or more yards in back-to-back home games against the Packers. Furthermore, Green Bay will be without Jaire Alexander for this contest.

Instead, Bet Jayden Reed Over 4.5 Receptions (-135)

Christian Watson (hamstring) is unlikely to play this week, making Reed the de facto No. 1 wide receiver. The rookie leads the team in receptions per game (3.9).
However, he has been on fire lately. Reed has averaged 5.2 receptions per game over his past six contests, totaling six or more in back-to-back matchups.
Green Bay designs targets for him. He has a 23.8% designed target rate, the highest on the team and the fourth-highest in the NFL among wide receivers with at least 80 targets.
The Vikings have surrendered the third-most receptions per game to wide receivers (14.7). Furthermore, they have given up the most receptions per game to slot players (8.8). Reed has run a team-high 74.7% of his routes from the slot this season.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.