4 NFL Week 5 Bets to Fade (2023)

by Mike Fanelli |
Oct 07, 2023

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have four bets you should avoid making this weekend. I also have four bets in the same games you should make instead. Let's dive into it!

NFL Week 5 Bets to Fade

All stats are according to Fantasy Points Data.

Some people might think the game might be a blowout and allow for a garbage time touchdown to hit the over. However, I wouldn't bet the over even if it was +1000.
New York has been blown out three times this year and is near two-touchdown underdogs on Sunday. Yet, Jones has ZERO touchdowns in those three blowouts.
Last week, Miami gave up four passing touchdowns to Josh Allen. However, they surrendered only one touchdown per game in the other three contests this year despite facing Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson.
The Dolphins had the seventh-best pressure rate (39.7%) over the first three weeks. Meanwhile, the Giants have given up the third-highest pressure rate this year (46%).

Achane has averaged 152 rushing yards and 11.7 yards per attempt over the past two weeks, including 4.88 yards before contact and 6.81 yards after contact per attempt.
The rookie running back is at his best on zone runs, accounting for half of his rushing attempts and nearly 64% of his yards the past two weeks. He has averaged 14.9 yards per attempt on those plays.
Meanwhile, the Giants have struggled against zone run. Nearly 54% of the rushing attempts and 45% of the yards against them have been on zone run plays this year.
New York has given up the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs (115.8 per game) this season, including over 100 yards in every contest.

The Saints have surrendered 31 receiving yards and 6.9 yards per reception to tight ends over the past two weeks, with Marcus Maye suspended despite facing two sub-par tight end units.
Despite the Patriots' struggles on offense, Henry has the seventh-most receiving yards (176) among tight ends over the first four weeks. He had at least 51 yards in all but one game.
Henry is first on the team in route run (116), second in targets (23), and second in first-read target percent (18.2%).
He also ranks 11th among tight ends in yards per route run (1.52), ninth in receiving yards market share (18.4%), and third in air yards (195) this season.

Shaheed has averaged 46.3 receiving yards per game this season, totaling 33 or more in all but one game, including last week, despite Derek Carr's injured shoulder.
He has played better against zone than man coverage this year, averaging a 17% target per route run rate, 2.02 yards per route run, and 17.6 yards per reception.
New England has played zone coverage on nearly 60% of their defensive pass plays this season, giving up a 21% target per route run rate and 1.46 yards per route run.
The Patriots' secondary has gotten destroyed by injuries. Unfortunately, they will be without two of their top players this week - Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon.

Philadelphia has surrendered only 48 rushing yards per game to running backs this season, the third-fewest in the NFL. They have held running back to under 65 yards in every game.
The Eagles have given up the sixth-lowest explosive run rate (13.9%), have the second-highest stuff rate (55.3%), and the lowest yards after contact allowed per rushing attempt (1.68).
Williams has run a man/gap concept play on 84.4% of his rushing attempts this season, averaging 3.87 yards per attempt. Yet, the Eagles have given up the third-lowest yards per attempt average (2.75) to running backs on man/gap run plays.
Furthermore, Williams is 18th in the NFL with 245 rushing yards entering Week 5, averaging 61.3 yards per game. However, he had 52 or fewer yards in all but one contest.

Stafford is one of four quarterbacks to average over 300 passing yards per game this season (307.3). He has at least 269 yards in every game, including 307 or more in all but one matchup.
The Eagles have given up the fifth-most passing yards entering Week 5 (279 per game), including 290 or more in all but one contest. Now they get to face Puka Nacua AND Cooper Kupp.
Philadelphia has struggled to stop the deep ball, ranking third in deep ball thrown rate. Meanwhile, Stafford ranks fifth in adjusted deep ball completion rate (53.3%) among qualifying quarterbacks.
Furthermore, the Eagles have struggled to get pressure this year, ranking 24th in pressure rate (29.7%). By comparison, Stafford ranks as the 16th-fewest in pressure rate.

Bettors might want to place this bet, given the matchup. The Cowboys have held running backs to only 62 rushing yards per game this season, the sixth-fewest in the NFL.
However, Dallas has three blowout wins by at least 20 points, leading to teams giving up on running the ball. Yet, James Conner had 98 rushing yards and averaged seven yards per attempt in the Week 3 win over the Cowboys.
McCaffrey has been a superstar this year, averaging 114.8 rushing yards per game and 5.7 yards per attempt. He has totaled at least 85 yards and 4.7 yards per attempt in every game.
The Cowboys have allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate (6.25) and the sixth-highest yards per rushing attempt (4.61) over the first four weeks.

After a slow start, Ferguson has averaged 62.5 receiving yards per game over the past two weeks, totaling at least 48 yards in both contests.
He is second on the team behind CeeDee Lamb in target share (17.3%), receptions (17), yards per route run (1.84), and first-read target percent (21.7%) this season.
Ferguson is first in target per route run rate (30%) on the team and second among all tight ends only to Travis Kelce.
Last week, the 49ers surrendered six receptions for 53 receiving yards to Zach Ertz. They have also given up 43 receiving yards per game to tight ends over the past two weeks.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.