4 NFL Week 6 Bets to Fade (2023)

by Mike Fanelli |
Oct 14, 2023

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have four bets you should avoid making this weekend. I also have four bets in the same games you should make instead. Let's dive into it!

NFL Week 6 Bets to Fade

All stats are according to Fantasy Points Data.

Avoid Betting Bryce Young Under 220.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Young has averaged 187.5 passing yards per game this season. Yet, he's averaged 225.5 yards per game since returning from an ankle injury, including 247 last week, a career-high.
The rookie is 12th in adjusted competition percentage over the past two weeks among quarterbacks with at least 40 dropbacks, just behind Patrick Mahomes.
Meanwhile, the Panthers are 14-point underdogs and will pass plenty in this game. Carolina has averaged 45.7 pass attempts for 251.3 yards in their three losses by double-digit points this year.
Miami has surrendered 258.2 per game, including 205 to the New York Giants last week. They have given up over 271 passing yards per game in the other four contests.

Instead, Bet Adam Thielen Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

The veteran receiver has averaged 78.8 receiving yards per game this season, including 62.3 per game with Bryce Young.
Thielen is 11th in the NFL in receiving yards (394) and seventh in targets (46). He is first on the team in target per route run rate (24%), well ahead of any other wide receiver.
Miami has the sixth-highest target rate to slot receivers (35.3%). Thielen has played over 70% of his snaps from the slot this year.
The alternative line of 80-plus yards (+200) is a bargain. Thielen has had 76-plus yards in three straight contests, including 100 or more twice. He is Carolina's passing offense.

Avoid Betting Trevor Lawrence Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (+100)

The under on this prop bet shouldn't be favored. Lawrence is eighth among quarterbacks in rushing yards and fifth in attempts entering Week 6.
He has averaged 26.4 yards per game this season, including 21 yards in the Week 1 matchup against the Colts.
Indianapolis has given up the third-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this year, surrendering 29.8 per game. They have allowed 12-plus yards to quarterbacks in all but one contest.
The alternative lines of 25-plus yards (+160) and 40-plus (+500) are appealing longer shots. Lawrence has at least 21 yards in all but one contest this season, including 31 or more in two straight.

Instead, Bet Josh Downs Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

Downs is only 42 receiving yards behind Michael Pittman Jr. for the team lead despite having 14 fewer targets and 31 fewer routes run this year.
He has averaged 51 receiving yards per game this season, but that number jumps to 63.7 per game in the three matchups with Gardner Minshew.
The rookie had an 18% target per route run rate in Week 1 with Anthony Richardson. Downs has a 28% target per route run rate in the three games with the veteran quarterback.
Jacksonville has given up the ninth-most receiving yards to wide receivers this year. They have surrendered 200+ yards in three of their past four contest, including almost 300 last week.

Avoid Betting Michael Mayer Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (+110)

Mayer had two receptions for 39 receiving yards last week, both career highs. Yet, he had only one more target and four more routes run than Austin Hooper, who had 11 yards.
Before last week's game, Mayer had only one reception on two targets for two yards all season. Ameer Abdullah has more targets than the team's tight end in 2023.
The rookie has an 8% target per route run rate and a 3% target share. Both numbers rank outside the top five on the team.
New England has limited tight ends to the fifth-fewest yards this season, surrendering fewer than eight yards twice. They also held Dallas Goedert to zero yards in Week 1.

Instead, Bet Jakobi Meyers Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Meyers is 35th in the NFL in receiving yards despite missing 1.5 games with a concussion, averaging 68.5 yards per contest. He is second on the team in yards, only behind Davante Adams.
He has averaged 10.7 targets and 80.3 yards per game in the three contests with Jimmy Garoppolo. Meyers leads the team in target per route run rate (36%) in those three games.
New England has given up 60 or more yards to four wide receivers this season despite facing multiple poor passing attacks.
The alternative lines of 70-plus yards (+155) and 80-plus (+230) are appealing options. Meyers has had at least 75 receiving yards in every game with Garoppolo, including 80 or more twice.

Avoid Betting James Cook Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Cook has averaged 58.4 rushing yards per game this season but has struggled against two tough matchups the past two weeks. He averaged 89 yards per game over the first three weeks, totaling 98 or more twice.
He has the sixth-lowest stuff rate among running backs with 60-plus rushing attempts this year. By comparison, New York has the second-lowest stuff rate defensively (37.1%).
The second-year player is fifth among running backs with 60-plus rushing attempts in yards before contact per attempt (2.05). Meanwhile, the Giants have given up the most rushing yards before contact per attempt (2.35) this season.
New York has given up the second-most rushing yards to running backs (135.8 per game), surrendering at least 102 yards in every contest, including 140 or more twice.

Instead, Bet Gabe Davis Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Davis has averaged 64 receiving yards per game this season, totaling 92 or more twice, including in Week 5.
He leads the Bills in air yards share (38.9%), target share (42.9%), and yards per route run (9.53) on passes 20-plus yards downfield this year.
Josh Allen is an elite deep ball thrower, ranking 11th in deep ball attempts and fifth in completion rate on passes 20 or more yards downfield among qualifying quarterbacks.
The Giants have allowed the 13th-most yards to wide receivers entering Week 6, surrendering 164.2 per game. They have given up 54 or more yards to seven wide receivers and three tight ends this season.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.