4 NFL Week 7 Bets to Fade (2023)

by Mike Fanelli |
Oct 21, 2023

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have four bets you should avoid making this weekend. I also have four bets in the same games you should make instead. Let's dive into it!

NFL Week 7 Bets to Fade

All stats are according to Fantasy Points Data.

Avoid Betting Gus Edwards Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Edwards is part of a crowded rushing attack, accounting for only 35.5% of the team's rushing attempts this year.
Furthermore, Lamar Jackson is the Ravens' top rusher, leading the team in rushing yards and touchdowns. He has 45 more yards than any other player.
The Lions have the top-run defense in the NFL. They give up the fewest yards per game (64.7) and have the third-lowest explosive run rate allowed (1.7%).
Detroit has held running backs to fewer than 46 yards in all but two games. The most yards by a running back against the Lions this year was Kenneth Walker III in Week 2 with 43.

Instead, Bet Jared Goff Over 239.5 Passing Yards (-115)

The Ravens have given up only 197.7 passing yards per game this season. However, they haven't faced a quarterback of Goff's talent.
Baltimore has faced two rookies making their first start, an injured Joe Burrow, Gardner Minshew, Kenny Pickett, Ryan Tannehill, and Malik Willis.
Goff is averaging 269.7 yards per game, the fifth-most in the NFL. Furthermore, his 272 yards per game on the road is the fourth-highest average this year.
He has the highest adjusted competition rate (81.3%) among starting quarterbacks. Furthermore, no David Montgomery likely means more pass attempts for Goff.

Avoid Betting Joshua Dobbs Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-230)

Dobbs had zero passing touchdowns last week. However, he had two in his previous two games against talented pass defenses - the San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals.
Arizona has no meaningful running game with James Conner out. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have an excellent run defense but a vulnerable passing defense.
The Seahawks have given up 1.8 touchdowns per game since Week 1. They have surrendered two or more in all of those contests except the matchup against the New York Giants.
Dobbs has a 3.1% touchdown rate this year, while Seattle has a 3.5% touchdown rate allowed.

Instead, Bet Kenneth Walker III Over 88.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)

Walker is a bell-cow running back, accounting for 74.8% of rushing attempts and 47.8% of the targets from the backfield.
The second-year star has a higher route participation rate (37%) than the rest of the backfield combined (31.2%). Meanwhile, Zach Charbonnet is unlikely to play with a hamstring injury.
Walker has averaged 89 rushing and receiving yards per game this season, totaling 89 or more in two of the past three contests.
Arizona has given up 112.8 rushing yards per game to running backs, including 86 or more in four straight contests. They have also surrendered at least 92 rushing and receiving yards to the position in every game.

Avoid Betting Raheem Mostert Under 48.5 Rushing Yards (+110)

The Eagles have given up the third-fewest rushing yards per game to running backs (50.3). However, they rank ninth in missed forced tackles allowed per attempt (0.25) and middle of the pact in explosive run rate allowed (4.8%) over the past three weeks.
Meanwhile, Mostert ranks fifth in explosive run yards (167) and eighth in yards after contact (268) this season.
He has averaged 71.5 yards per game this year, totaling 65 or more four times. Mostert has also averaged 76 yards per game without De'Von Achane in the lineup.
Mostert has accounted for 52.8% of the team's backfield attempts this season, including 64.3% in the two contests without Achane.

Instead, Bet Tyreek Hill Over 96.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

The superstar leads the NFL in receiving yards (814) and yards per game (135.7), averaging 21.5 more than the next closest player (Justin Jefferson - 114.2).
Hill has more games with over 160 receiving yards (three) than under 96 (two). Those two games were a blowout loss to the Buffalo Bills and against a healthy New England Patriots defense.
Philadelphia won't blow Miami out. Furthermore, their defense has been awful this season, surrendering the sixth-most yards per game (172.2) to wide receivers.
The Eagles have struggled against opposing No. 1 wide receivers, giving up 102.6 yards per game since Week 1. Yet, none of them have been as impressive as Hill this year.

Avoid Betting T.J. Hockenson Under 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

San Francisco has given up only 28.7 receiving yards per game to tight ends this year. However, they haven't faced a team that frequently targeted their tight ends.
The only game where the opposing tight end had more than four receptions was against the Arizona Cardinals. Their tight ends combined for 58 yards against the 49ers.
Hockenson is the top receiving threat with Justin Jefferson out. He has averaged 53.8 yards per game since Week 1 and led the team in yards last week without the superstar receiver.
He also had the highest target per route run rate among wide receivers and tight ends last week. Hockenson is also second on the team in target per route run rate this year behind Jefferson.

Instead, Bet Alexander Mattison Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Since the Vikings added Cam Akers, Mattison has played better. He has averaged 20.8 receiving yards per game over the past four weeks, totaling 20 or more three times, including two straight.
Mattison had the highest target per route run rate last week among qualifying Vikings (39%). He also finished second to Hockenson in target share (25.8% vs. 22.6%).
The 49ers have shut down opposing rushing attacks but haven't been as good at stopping running backs out of the backfield, giving up 33.5 receiving yards per game.
They have given up 25 or more yards to running backs in every game this season, including 31 or more yards four times.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.