4 NFL Week 8 Bets to Fade (2023)

by Mike Fanelli |
Oct 28, 2023

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have four bets you should avoid making this weekend. I also have four bets in the same games you should make instead. Let's dive into it!

NFL Week 8 Bets to Fade

All stats are according to Fantasy Points Data.

Avoid Betting Dallas Goedert Under 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Despite having zero receiving yards in Week 1, Goedert has averaged 46.3 yards per game this season.
He has had at least 41 yards in four of the past five games, with the lone exception coming in Week 4 against Washington.
However, Goedert had only four targets in that game, his lowest total since Week 1. Over the past three weeks, he has averaged 7.3 targets and 78.7 yards per game.
The Commanders have given up 79.3 yards per game to tight ends since the Week 4 matchup, including 88 or more yards in back-to-back weeks.

Instead, Bet A.J. Brown Over 88.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

Brown is second in the NFL with 809 receiving yards (115.6 yards per game) despite the slow start over the first two games.
The superstar is currently tied with Calvin Johnson for the NFL record with five consecutive games with 125 or more receiving yards.
He had 175 yards in Week 4 against Washington. Brown leads the NFL in yards per game (142.5) and is third in receiving yards market share (48.3%) over the past four weeks.
Washington has surrendered the second-most yards to wide receivers this year (191). They gave up 75 yards to Jalin Hyatt on two catches, 125 yards to Drake London, and 230 yards to DJ Moore over the past three contests.

Avoid Betting Nico Collins Under 58.5 Receiving Yards (+100)

Collins is 10th in the NFL in receiving yards per game (91.2), totaling 80 or more four times, including his last contest, despite facing a talented New Orleans Saints secondary.
The star receiver leads the Texans with a 32.8% receiving yards market share, 10.7% more than any other player on the team.
He also leads Houston in air-yards share (29.9%), target share (19.6%), target per route run rate (26%), and first-read target share (26.1%) this season.
Carolina won't have several critical starters on defense for this game. They have given up an average of 104.4 yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers since Week 1.

Instead, Bet Dameon Pierce Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Pierce has averaged only 46.8 rushing yards this year. However, he has averaged 60.3 yards per game over the past three contests, totaling 66 or more twice.
He has more rushing attempts (97-39) and yards (281-153) than Devin Singletary this season. Pierce also leads the backfield in missed tackles forced per rush attempt (0.32).
Carolina has given up the second-most yards per game to running backs (134.3), surrendering 130 in all but one contest.
The Panthers have allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate (6.2%) and have the sixth-lowest stuff rate (39.6%). They are the only team to give up over five yards per attempt on zone and man/gap run concepts this year.

Avoid Betting Desmond Ridder Under 218.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Ridder has struggled with turnovers but not with racking up passing yards. He has averaged 232.9 yards per game this season.
He has averaged 247 yards per game in the Falcons' four wins. Furthermore, Ridder has averaged 295.3 yards per game over the past three weeks.
Tennessee has given up 256.7 yards per game this year, including 289 or more in half their matchups. They have more games surrendering over 300 yards than under 223 (two vs. one).
The alternate line of 225-plus yards (+100) and 250-plus yards (+195) are appealing options. Ridder has had 250 or more yards in three consecutive games.

Instead, Bet Tyjae Spears Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

No Ryan Tannehill this week means the Titans will commit to running the ball. They also might limit Derrick Henry to protect him from injury with the trade deadline on Tuesday.
Spears has averaged 28.5 rushing yards per game this season but 37.5 yards per game in the four contests the Titans have lost by seven or fewer points. The gameâ€™s spread is Atlanta -2.5.
He has a higher explosive run rate (9.7% vs. 7.1%) and a higher yards after contact per attempt average (3.94 vs. 2.97) than Henry.
The Falcons have held running backs to 77.1 yards per game this season. However, they rank 12th in the percentage of their runs allowed to total 20 or more yards.

Avoid Betting Josh Jacobs Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Jacobs averaged 97.2 yards per game last season. Unfortunately, his average has nearly been cut in half (48.6) this year. He has totaled over 65 yards only twice, averaging 73 yards and 3.2 yards per attempt in those contests.
Last year, he averaged 4.86 yards per rushing attempt, 3.23 yards after contact per attempt, and a 4.7% explosive run rate. This year, those numbers have dropped to 2.94 yards, 1.97 yards, and 1.7%.
The Lions have given up the third-fewest rushing yards per game to running backs this year (65.5). They surrendered only 47.2 yards per game before facing the Baltimore Ravens last week.
Detroit has held running backs to 67 or fewer yards in all but one game this season. They also have the fourth-lowest explosive run rate allowed (2.7%).

Instead, Bet Jahmyr Gibbs Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-130)

Gibbs should explode if David Montgomery doesn't play. In the two games without Montgomery, the rookie has accounted for 71.8% of the backfield's rushing attempts.
He has averaged 14 rushing attempts for 74 yards and 5.4 yards per attempt in those two games despite facing talented run defenses.
Las Vegas has given up the eighth-most yards per game to running backs (105.3), surrendering at least 77 every game. They have also allowed the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt average (2.63).
The 96.4 rushing and receiving yards prop (-115) is also an appealing bet. Gibbs has averaged 19 touches for 104 yards in the two games without Montgomery, including 20 touches for 126 yards last week.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.