49ers vs. Browns: NFL Week 6 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets
I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for 49ers vs. Browns.
NFL Betting Primer: 49ers vs. Browns
Cleveland Browns (CLE 10.0) vs. San Francisco 49ers
Deshaun Watson is not expected to play for the Browns in Week 6. He was medically cleared two weeks ago before Week 4 to play but decided not to play. Coming out after the bye week, you’d presume he would be a full participant in practice, but that has not been the case thus far. Major red flag.
He has been listed as day-to-day – which actually means week-to-week if you have been following NFL injury reports for a while. Not sure when we will see him back on the field.
Editor’s Note: Deshaun Watson has officially been ruled OUT for Week 6.
The 49ers are the best team in the league and have been beating teams by MORE than 8 points easily – regardless of where they play.
Sure, the Browns have a strong defense, are coming off a bye week and are playing at home. Hence, I understand the line as it is. But it’s still not nearly enough points to get me off the 49ers who should be 5-0 ATS this year had it not been for a pointless Rams FG back in Week 2.
As for the total, it’s probably a shy-away spot for me because the number is already so low at 36.5 due to the Browns starting PJ Walker and weather that calls for Cleveland wind and rain. Classic autumn weather in Browns nation.
SF is 3-2 toward the under this year, with the overs against teams that boasted somewhat functioning offenses. Hardly say the Browns offense has been above average despite a strong performance in Week 3 versus the Titans. And it hardly projects as a normal functioning offense if PJ Walker is the starter for the Browns.
So under on the game overall with Watson likely out. But over on the 49ers’ team total at a lowly 21.5 points. Again, the Browns feasted on the Steelers, Bengals and Titans to open the year. They gave up 28 points to the Ravens – who have been inconsistent. SF has scored 21 points in all but one of Brock Purdy‘s completed games.
Speaking of Purdy starts…George Kittle has not consistently posted in yardage with the 49ers starting QB dating back to last season. He’s gone over 40 yards in 5 of 14 games played. Twice against Dallas. If the team keeps him into block more versus a fierce Browns defensive line, he could easily fly under the prop.
As for the Browns offense without Watson… we are sniffing for more unders. Specifically in their backfield. Jerome Ford under 35.5 rushing yards. Ford ranks dead last in rushing success rate this season. Despite being the “starter†the last two games, he has totaled yardage numbers of 18 and 26. No team is allowing fewer rushing yards per game to RBs than the 49ers (43.4). Considering the negative game script, I don’t even know how many rushes Cleveland will total in this game.
I also heavily lean on betting the under on Kareem Hunt‘s receiving yards prop. Not because of the matchup – the 49ers actually allow decent RB targets – but because he is not the pass-catching RB on the roster. Over the last two games, Hunt has run a route on just 12 of 80 dropbacks (15%) with two targets. Ford has run a route on 60%. Very skeptical Hunt sniffs any worthwhile receiving usage or turns it into actual yardage. The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet agrees with me, citing Hunt’s 3.6 receiving yards projection.
My Picks:
- 49ers - 8 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- 49ers over 21.5 points (-112 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Under 36.5 (-108 DraftKings Sportsbook)
My Props:
- George Kittle under 36.5 receiving yards (Prizepicks)
- Jerome Ford under 35.5 rushing yards (-110 BetMGM)
- Kareem Hunt under 8.5 receiving yards (-110 BetMGM)
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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