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49ers vs. Packers NFL Playoffs Odds & Picks: Divisional Round (Saturday)

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Let's dive into the two-game Saturday marquee NFL slate for the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks between the Houston Texans vs the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers vs the Green Bay Packers. Below we dive into 49ers vs. Packers.

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Saturday Football Betting Primer: 49ers vs. Packers

San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) vs. Green Bay Packers

Sides:

  • The Underdogs have won seven of the Packers' last nine games.
  • The Packers are also 8-2 when they allow fewer than 23 points on defense. 7-3 ATS.
  • Green Bay is 3-5 ATS when they allow more than 23 points.
  • The Packers have scored first in each of their last five road games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in each of the 49ers' last 10 games.
  • The 49ers have not covered the spread in their last 5 home games.
  • The 49ers first team has covered as favorites in 59% of their games. 12-4 overall.
  • SF is 56% ATS as a favorite. 12-5 overall.
  • GB is 64% ATS as an underdog. 6-5 overall.

Game Total:

  • Seven of the Packers' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line. Their defense has been horrible.
  • Each of the Packers’ last six road games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Packers' last nine postseason games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • GB has allowed 24-plus points in four of their last six games.
  • The 49ers are 5-3 toward the over at home this season, averaging over 46 points per game.
  • Teams average 46 points per game.
  • The 49ers starters have scored at least 27 points in 12 of their 16 games played this season.
  • The 49ers have not covered the spread in their last 5 home games.
  • They have averaged over 28 points per game at home this season (3rd-best).
  • The 49ers have scored first in nine of their last 10 home games.

Overall:

Although the spotlight in this game is on the two QBs, the Packers' chances of winning/covering the spread are more about their defense. When GB's defense struggles, they lose. Green Bay is 3-5 ATS when they allow more than 23 points. SF is 10-2 ATS when they score 23 or more points.

The 49ers have been great as a favorite this season, but their middling and recent ATS record at home (0-5) makes me think they are slightly overrated regarding the point spread. The Packers own the third-best scoring margin on the road this season (+5.4) and they are hardly getting the credit/respect they deserve after the beatdown they gave the Dallas Cowboys in the Wildcard Round.

Road teams and underdogs have been profitable ATS in 49ers/Packers games respectively, so taking the Packers with the points is a no-brainer to me.
Also, the Packers play well against teams that they are familiar with.

They are 2-1 straight up in the last 3 matchups under Matt LeFleur versus Kyle Shanahan. 2-0 last two games playing in SF. 2-1 ATS in the last 3 matchups versus the 49ers. In the division this season, the Packers went 4-2. They swept the Bears and won the second game against the Lions/Vikings. They were familiar with Mike McCarthy’s offense and Dan Quinn’s defense last week, and came out on top.

Also, their improved first-half offense posed problems, as we know the 49ers are a team that operates at its best as a front-runner. The Packers have scored first in each of their last five road games. Through the first 9 weeks of the season, the Packers averaged an ABSYMAL 4.1 points per game in the first halves of games. From Week 10 onward these are their first half-point totals: 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27. Average of 16.3 points per game in the first half. No. 2 in the league.

As for the total, I lean toward the over for the reasons I have outlined. However, the number itself is just massive at 50.5. 3 of the overs in SF this year have finished with points totals of 51, 51, and 52. Unless it comes down, this total is likely a shy away based on what these teams have traditionally done scoring on average this season.

Props:

The Packers bleed big gains to tight ends (second-highest yards per reception allowed) ranking 26th in DVOA against the position. We saw this 49ers offense take on Joe Brady's Green Bay defense twice back in 2021, with tight end George Kittle being the constant threat that was very productive. He went over 52 yards in both games against this Packers defense.

He has also gone over 52.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games, including 6 of the 49ers' 7 home games played this season.

Again, it is very much a "pick your flavor" when it comes to chasing the "MORE THANS/OVERS" on 49ers players. The over on Christian McCaffrey's rushing yardage at 88.5 yards might be the obvious/safest wager to make. Gone over in 6 of his last 8 games played. In one game he didn't finish because of an injury. The Packers can easily be run on, and I'd expect a full workload for CMC off two weeks of rest. Six of the last 10 RBs the Packers have faced have gone OVER their projected rushing totals.

On the other side of this SF-GB matchup, I would expect another high-octane and volume passing effort from Jordan Love. The 49ers have allowed the 3rd-most completions this season to QBs. The 4 of the last 5 QBs the 49ers have faced have completed 22-plus passes. 8 of 11 have hit the over on their completions prop.

Love has gone for 255-plus yards in 8 of his last 10 games played (80%). Love pairing Love with his No. 1 WR as well in same game parlays.

Jayden Reed was not needed, going 0-for-3 on his targets in the wild card round. Still ranked third in snaps from the slot (46%) and just 11 routes overall with the Packers winning with efficiency, not volume, in their passing attack. Expect him to bounce big in a big way as the Packers' best WR. Note that the 49ers have allowed the 5th-most catches to WRs this season. Reed is the quick-read slot option for Love, who should look to his rookie frequently in this spot.

Before last week, Reed had gone for at least 4 receptions in eight straight games. Over 3.5 receptions for Reed is this week’s stone-cold lock of the week.

Also would opt for the UNDER on Luke Musgrave's 24.5 receiving yards prop. The 49ers rank 4th in DVOA against tight ends. Still, they have allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to tight ends since Week 10. Therefore I'll take the MORE than on Kraft's 24.5 receiving yards prop given he is the starting tight end in the offense.

My Picks:


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