6 Best Bets on NFL Teams to Make & Miss the Playoffs (2023)

by Mike Fanelli |
Nov 07, 2023

We've reached the halfway point of the 2023 NFL regular season. Some teams are looking toward the 2024 NFL Draft and the Caleb Williams sweepstakes. Others have all but locked up a playoff spot. However, 90% of the league is in the range of making or missing the playoffs.

Many bettors like making Super Bowl futures. However, I prefer betting on teams to make or miss the playoffs. Let's look at six teams I am betting on to make or miss the playoffs at the halfway point of the season.

As always, find the best odds for any NFL bet on BettingPros.

To Make the Playoffs Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Buffalo Bills (5-4): Make -110 | Miss +100

The Bills have lost three of their past five games and two of the past three, including an awful 29-25 loss to the New England Patriots in Week 7. Buffalo might no longer be Super Bowl contenders, but they shouldn't be near equal odds to make or miss the playoffs. They are currently half a game out of the playoffs and remain only one game behind the Miami Dolphins for the AFC East division lead.

Furthermore, Buffalo beat Miami earlier this season and face off again in the final regular season game. That matchup could determine who wins the division title, but the Bills should have already locked up a playoff spot. They have a difficult upcoming schedule, with matchups against the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs. However, they also have three divisional games that could volt them back into first place in the AFC East. I'm not ready to bet against Josh Allen yet.

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3): Make +142 | Miss -160

Despite having a bottom-five scoring offense, the Steelers would be a Wild Card team in the AFC if the playoffs started today. They are only one game behind the Baltimore Ravens for the AFC North division title. These two teams faced off a few weeks ago, with the Steelers getting the 17-10 victory. Pittsburgh's defense is playing well, and the offense has begun to get going over the past few weeks. More importantly, their rest of the season schedule is very favorable.

In Week 10, Green Bay comes to town fresh off a win. However, the Los Angeles Rams' offense looked like a junior varsity high school unit without Matthew Stafford against the Packers. The Steelers should defeat them with ease. Then they face the Cleveland Browns, whom they beat 26-22 in Week 2 with Deshaun Watson under center. Pittsburgh does face the Cincinnati Bengals twice and the Ravens in Week 18. Yet, they should be favored or minor underdogs in every other game this season. After barely missing the playoffs in 2022, Mike Tomlin will get the Steelers in this year.

Houston Texans (4-4): Make +260 | Miss -320

Congratulations, C.J. Stroud, who may have locked up the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. The rookie quarterback had 470 passing yards and five touchdowns, including the game-winner in the 39-37 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 9. The win kept the Texans in second place in the AFC South division standings and only two games behind the Jacksonville Jaguars for the division lead. Yet, Houston has a slight edge after winning 37-17 over their division rivals in Week 3.

They have won four of their past six games, with narrow defeats to the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers. Unfortunately, Houston faces the Cincinnati Bengals next week. However, the Texans get the Arizona Cardinals and Jaguars in their next two games. If they can win both, Houston will be in the mix for the AFC South title. They face the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts in three of their final four games. If they don't lose a division game the rest of the year, the Texans will make the playoffs for the first time since 2019.

To Miss the Playoffs Best Bets

Atlanta Falcons (4-5): Miss -145 | Make +122

If Arthur Smith is back in 2024, the entire Atlanta fan base should boycott the team. Many thought Atlanta's problem was Desmond Ridder. Yet, the Taylor Heinicke-led Falcons lost 31-28 to Jaren Hall and five-minutes-in-the-building Joshua Dobbs in Week 9 after losing 28-23 to Will Levis in his NFL debut, surrendering four passing touchdowns. Atlanta started the year 2-0 but have lost five of their past seven, including several embarrassing losses. They also don't have a victory over a team with a winning record this season.

The Falcons defeated the Carolina Panthers (1-7), Green Bay Packers (3-5), Houston Texans (4-4) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5). Those teams have a combined 34.4% winning percentage, and only the Texans have a serious chance of making the playoffs. Unfortunately, Atlanta's schedule isn't getting much easier from here. They face the Arizona Cardinals this week with Kyler Murray potentially making his season debut. Then the Falcons face the New Orleans Saints twice and the New York Jets over their final seven games. If Atlanta doesn't win this week, Arthur Smith shouldnâ€™t make it to the Week 11 bye.

Cleveland Browns (5-3): Miss +140 | Make -172

Many might be impressed with the Browns. Despite Deshaun Watson missing multiple games with a shoulder injury, Cleveland has a winning record. Furthermore, they got a 19-17 win over the San Francisco 49ers without the franchise quarterback. However, that's the Browns' only statement win this season. Their other four victories came over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1, the Tennessee Titans, the Indianapolis Colts and the Arizona Cardinals. Those last three teams have a combined 8-18 record (30.8%) this year. Their rest-of-season schedule is also brutal.

Cleveland faces the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers over the next two weeks. They lost to both teams earlier this season. While the Browns have a few easier matchups on their schedule against the Los Angeles Rams and Chicago Bears, they also face the Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans and New York Jets over their final five games. More importantly, Cleveland has a critical matchup against the Bengals in Week 18. That matchup could determine the final Wild Card spot in the AFC. I'm not betting against Joe Burrow in favor of Watson and the Browns.

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2): Miss +800 | Make -1200

Unlike the other teams in this article, the Jaguars seem like a sure-fire lock to make the playoffs. They currently have the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoffs, a two-game lead in the AFC South division and the fourth-best overall record in the NFL. Yet, they could miss the playoffs, and the 8-1 odds are appealing. Jacksonville got an impressive 25-20 win over the Buffalo Bills a few weeks ago in London. However, they did have the advantage of playing in London the week before, unlike the Bills. Meanwhile, the rest of their wins this season have come against middle-of-the-road teams.

Jacksonville's other five victories have come over teams with a combined 22-22 record this season. Only the New Orleans Saints (5-4) and Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) have a winning record. Unfortunately, they have a challenging second-half schedule. The Jaguars face the San Francisco 49ers in Week 10. Furthermore, they face the Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens in three consecutive weeks. All three teams are currently in the playoff mix. More importantly, they have two matchups against the Tennessee Titans and one against the Houston Texans. If the Jaguars lose any of those three games, they could lose the division title and miss the playoffs.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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