6 Chiefs Sports Betting Trends to Know for Super Bowl LVIII
Betting trends are always available for sports bettors to sift through, but they become even more prevalent around Super Bowl time. A game of this magnitude has a lot of history, and while not all bettors put stock into historical trends of years past, there will be many whose wagers will be influenced by prior data.
This article examines the most relevant trends that support the Kansas City Chiefs’ case of winning their Super Bowl LVIII matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. Be sure to revisit www.bettingpros.com to see which trends support the favored 49ers in a separate article.
Here are the most significant trends in favor of the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII.
Notable Betting Trends Involving the Kansas City Chiefs
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Patrick Mahomes Embraces the Underdog Role
The Chiefs are anywhere from 1.5 to 2.5-point underdogs in the Super Bowl, and if that line holds, it would mark the first time in Patrick Mahomes’ career that he would have been an underdog in three straight games. He beat the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens back-to-back in the last two rounds of the playoffs, and is now 10-1-1 ATS and 9-3 SU as an underdog in his career. Oddsmakers expected the Ravens to get the better of Mahomes last week, as the 4.5-point spread in the AFC Championship Game was tied for the biggest line a Mahomes-led team had ever seen. If you’re wondering how Mahomes and the Chiefs fared on the other occasion that they were 4.5-point underdogs, they won outright 42-37 on the road in Week 2 of the 2018 season at the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Mahomes threw for 326 yards and six touchdowns.
Andy Reid’s Teams are Dominant Off Bye Weeks
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is no stranger to navigating the pomp and circumstance that comes with preparing a team for the Super Bowl and all the media obligations that come with it, as he has done so four previous times in his coaching career. And while a Super Bowl is played under mich different circumstances that an average regular season or playoff game, Reid’s teams have been dominant with a week off in between games, going 28-5 SU (including the postseason) off a bye week.
Quarterback Super Bowl Experience Matters
Mahomes has played in three Super Bowls, while 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is playing in his first. In the previous 35 Super Bowls where one quarterback had experience and faced another who had none, the experienced quarterback’s team won 20 times. Though those teams are only 17-18 ATS in that span, that would not matter in this case, as the Chiefs would cover as +2-point underdogs if they won outright.
Not only does Mahomes have more experience than Purdy, but he also will make history as the first quarterback to start in four Super Bowls before turning 30. And he has been outstanding in his playoff career, going 14-3 and throwing for the most touchdowns (30) and accruing the most total yards (3,410) of any quarterback through their first 10 career playoff games. Lastly, Mahomes only has one career playoff loss to a quarterback other than Tom Brady (Joe Burrow).
Underdogs Have Won More Super Bowls than Lost Recently With Low Spreads
Entering this year, each of the last 14 Super Bowls had point spreads of five points or fewer. In those games, the underdogs went 8-5 SU, as Super Bowl XLIX between New England and Seattle closed as a pick ’em. Underdogs are also 12-4 ATS in the last 16 Super Bowls and covered nine of the previous 11.
Speaking of low spreads, Mahomes thrives in these situations. In games where his team is favored by three points or fewer or he is an underdog, Mahomes is 23-8-1 ATS. This is opposed to a 37-43-1 ATS record in games where his team was favored by 3.5 points or more.
ATS Trend and Hot Streak Supports the Chiefs
The Chiefs have covered all three of their playoff games, and with them winning outright twice as underdogs, their average cover margin is 10.0 points during this Super Bowl run. As Pro Football Network pointed out, 10 teams since 2000 have entered the Super Bowl with three consecutive covers, and what do all of them have in common? They all covered the spread in the Super Bowl! Pro Football Network also pointed out that seven of the eight most recent teams on that list had an ATS record above .500, which aligns with Kansas City’s 9-7-1 ATS record. And all 10 teams allowed an average of 14.0 points per game en route to the Super Bowl, while the Chiefs have surrendered 13.7 points per game this postseason.
Better Playoff Seeding Doesn’t Mean Wins or Covers in the Super Bowl
For those that might be wondering why the Chiefs are underdogs to the 49ers given their playoff success under Reid and Mahomes, the simple answer might be that San Francisco is representing the NFC as the No. 1 seed, and it had the third-best point differential (+193) of any team in the league. Conversely, Kansas City is the AFC’s No. 3 seed, and had the sixth-best point differential (+77) to finish the regular season. However, the higher-seeded team in the Super Bowl has covered the spread in just 11.8% of the last 26 Super Bowls (2-15-2 ATS). In addition, the team with the better record (San Francisco is 14-5 compared to Kansas City’s 14-6) is 2-11 SU in the last 13 Super Bowls, and has covered just one of the last 16 since 2004.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:
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- 2024 Busch Light Clash: NASCAR Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Premier League Matchday 23 Odds, Picks & Predictions
- College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.