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8 49ers Sports Betting Trends to Know for Super Bowl LVIII

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The San Francisco 49ers are representing the NFC as the No. 1 seed in Super Bowl LVIII, but the Kansas City Chiefs are receiving the majority of the early betting action, likely because of the Patrick Mahomes factor. But what do the trends say about this matchup?. While we are not trying to influence any bettor, we are still elaborating on the most relevant historical data supporting each side of this Super Bowl matchup.

Yesterday, we looked at the most glaring trends that involved the Kansas City Chiefs as underdogs. Today, we provide trends that both support and oppose the San Francisco 49ers as worthy of either moneyline or against-the-spread plays.

Here are the most significant trends relating to the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII.

Notable Super Bowl Betting Trends for the San Francisco 49ers

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Brock Purdy Isn’t the Only Proven Winner in this Matchup

Patrick Mahomes has done things before the age of 30 that most quarterbacks would dream of accomplishing for his entire career, like becoming the first to start in four Super Bowls, winning two regular season MVPs and Super Bowl MVPs, and going 74-22 through his first 96 regular season starts. He also has more playoff wins (14) than any other quarterback in a six-year span. However, he is not the only quarterback in this matchup who has had success.

Albeit amid a much smaller sample size, Brock Purdy is 21-5 in his career as a starter (including the postseason), and is 4-1 in the playoffs. However, the 49ers have won every playoff game he has started and finished, as the only loss came when he missed a chunk of last year’s NFC Championship Game after injuring his elbow in the first quarter.

Purdy is Best in Primetime

Brock Purdy is making his first Super Bowl appearance, but he is no stranger to the “big stage” or “bright lights.” After the NFC Championship victory over the Detroit Lions, Purdy improved to 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS) in primetime games, making him San Francisco’s most profitable primetime quarterback of the last 20 years. For those interested in his college years as well, Purdy’s Iowa State teams won all six night games with him under center. And he is not just a game manager, as he set the franchise record for passing yards in a season, with his 4,280 passing yards topping any year that Joe Montana or Steve Young had. In addition, he led all quarterbacks this season in QBR, yards per completion, passer rating, EPA per dropback, and explosive passing plays (plays of 20-plus yards).

Players’ Super Bowl Experience Matters Little

The Chiefs roster is littered with players with Super Bowl experience, with this being their fourth appearance in the last five years. However, the team with fewer Super Bowl-experienced players has won 10 of the last 17 Super Bowls. Nick Bosa, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Fred Warner are among nine players that remain from the 2020 49ers Super Bowl roster. In all, the 49ers have six defensive starters with Super Bowl experience, and they do not lack for talent, with five All-Pro selections this year (Christian McCaffrey, Fred Warner, Trent Williams, Kyle Juszczyk, and George Kittle).

History Says Big Super Bowl Favorites Entering the Playoffs Do Not Win 

Entering the playoffs, the 49ers had the best odds of any team to win the Super Bowl. However, only five pre-playoff favorites have won the Super Bowl since 2000 (2003 Patriots, 2004 Patriots, 2013 Seahawks, 2016 Patriots, 2022 Chiefs).

Favorites have Dominated the Super Bowl

Favorites are 27-28-2 ATS but are 36-21 SU in all Super Bowls. Another interesting trend is that teams that win the Super Bowl are 48-7-2 ATS, covering at an 87% clip. Thus, if the 49ers follow the .632 winning percentage of all favorites in the Super Bowls before them and win outright, chances are they will cover the spread also.

Super Bowl Champions are Usually Good ATS Teams

There has only been one Super Bowl champion who has ever finished the season with an ATS record below .500. The Los Angeles Rams entered Super Bowl LVI with a 10-10 ATS, then failed to cover as -4.5 favorites despite beating the Bengals 23-20 to finish 10-11 ATS on the season. San Francisco is 9-9-1 ATS (18th-best ATS record in the league), while Kansas City is 12-8 ATS (6th-best) entering this game. The 49ers’ middling ATS success this season is largely because they finished without a cover in seven consecutive home games, their second-longest streak in the Super Bowl era. Thus, it could be a good thing for them that this game is at a neutral site in Las Vegas.

San Francisco Has Been Dominant With a Healthy Deebo Samuel

The 49ers went 12-2 in the regular season with a healthy Deebo Samuel, and 0-3 in the games he missed or started but was injured and did not finish. It was not until the game against the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round that the 49ers won a game that Samuel did not finish, but they scored 34 points in his triumphant return in the NFC Championship, their highest point total since Week 15.

It is Difficult to Repeat

The last time Kansas City was back in the Super Bowl after winning the title the previous year, it lost 31-9 in Super Bowl LV to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Thus, while the Chiefs are the third team in NFL history to enjoy a stretch of four Super Bowl appearances in five seasons, no team has won back-to-back Super Bowls since the 2003-04 Patriots.

However, NFL senior researcher Tony Holzman-Escareno provided this nugget that gives a nod to the Chiefs.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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