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AFC Championship Game Preview, Odds & Picks: Chiefs vs. Ravens (Sunday)

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A conference championship game always carries blatantly obvious high stakes. But this year’s AFC Championship Game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens carries just a bit more importance than the rest.

Sunday’s game in Baltimore will not only determine the AFC champion, it will also determine whether we get two more weeks of wall-to-wall Taylor Swift coverage. Kind of reminds me of Groundhog Day.

But all Swift stories aside, this game features a proven commodity in the Chiefs, who are making their sixth-consecutive appearance in the conference title game, going up against an unproven juggernaut in Baltimore, who will look to make their first Super Bowl appearance since winning Super Bowl 47. Patrick Mahomes will look to win his second road playoff game and fourth AFC title, while Lamar Jackson will be attempting to quiet his doubters with his first Super Bowl appearance.

Should we back the more complete Ravens, or Mahomes as a short road underdog? Let’s break down the AFC Championship Game.

NFL AFC Championship Game Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (-4), O/U: 44.5 (-112/-108)

Is Kansas City’s Offense Back? 

I know that’s a weird question to ask about a Kansas City offense that has electrified us for years. However, there were some serious doubts about this year’s version of the KC attack heading into the playoffs. If you looked purely at the results, you’d think this unit had gotten back to normal, and to an extent, that’s true.

Last week, the Chiefs put up 27 points and averaged 7.7 yards per play in their victory over the Buffalo Bills. However, that performance comes with a pretty big caveat: Buffalo’s defense was decimated by injuries. The same case could be made in Kansas City’s 26-point performance against Miami. The Chiefs played well and put up more than 400 yards of offense, but it came against a Dolphins unit that was even more injury-plagued heading into that game.

Now let me be clear, this is an offense led by Patrick Mahomes. I’m certainly not discounting Kansas City’s offense so long as he’s healthy and out there, but let’s just remember that this was still a unit that averaged only 21.8 points per game during the regular season (15th in the NFL). Additionally, let’s not forget just how much this unit struggled when it couldn’t get the ball to Travis Kelce with regularity.

Also, Baltimore’s defense will be Kansas City’s stiffest test yet.

Baltimore Defense Can Limit Kansas City Offense 

I initially wrote “shut down,” instead of “limit,” when I typed out that header. Ultimately I concluded that there’s no such thing as shutting down Mahomes, but if there’s a team that could come close, it’s this Baltimore Ravens unit.

As I wrote last week, this is a historically good defense that is extremely versatile from a schematic perspective. The Ravens have the personnel to adapt and throw different things at their opponent. Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is fully capable of keeping up in a game of chess with Andy Reid.

More importantly, Baltimore’s defense matches up well with the Chiefs offense. For starters, the Ravens led the league in sacks despite blitzing on just 21.9% of their opponents’ snaps (8th-lowest frequency in the NFL). That ability to generate pressure, especially up the middle, without blitzing, is essential to beating Mahomes, as it limits him from escaping the pocket to extend plays.

In particular, defensive tackle Justin Madubuike, who impressively led Baltimore with 13 sacks as an interior lineman, could feast against a Kansas City offensive line that most likely won’t have All-Pro guard Joe Thuney. I also don’t mind the matchups for Jadeveon Clowney, Kyle Van Noy, and Baltimore’s deep bench of edge rushers against Kansas City’s suspect tackles. In particular, I’m looking at Jawaan Taylor, who leads all linemen in penalties and who allowed five sacks in the regular season.

If there’s one weakness to Baltimore’s defense, it’s at cornerback, where they are a bit suspect outside of Marlon Humphrey, who’s expected to return to action after missing last week’s game. However, cornerback vulnerability isn’t as concerning against this year’s version of the Chiefs, who lack much punch on the outside besides rookie Rashee Rice.

Rice and Travis Kelce have accounted for 24 of Mahomes’ 40 completions during the postseason. None of Kansas City’s wide receivers have caught more than three passes through their first two postseason games. The Ravens could certainly decide to shadow Rice with Humphrey and allocate the rest of their efforts to clogging the middle of the field and limiting Kelce.

As for covering Kelce, I think Baltimore has the ultimate chess piece in Kyle Hamilton. The second-year pro is an insanely versatile safety who can play a variety of roles for Baltimore’s defense. In this game, I expect Hamilton’s primary responsibility to be containing Kelce with help over the middle of the field. However, we could see Baltimore’s athletic and rangy linebackers get in the mix as well.

For the season, Baltimore ranks 12th in the NFL in regards to yards per game allowed to opposing tight ends. Kelce will certainly get his, but he doesn’t seem as likely to take the game over.

Can Ravens Set the Tone Offensively? 

Baltimore also holds a significant advantage when they have the ball. The Ravens rank second in rushing EPA this year, while Kansas City’s run defense ranks 28th. This means we could see Baltimore’s offense employ an “old school,” game plan. And by old school, I mean Baltimore’s offense from a year or two ago when Greg Roman was still the offensive coordinator.

I see first-year OC Todd Monken emphasizing the running game against a Kansas City defense that gave up 182 rushing yards and 4.7 yards per rush to the Bills a week ago. The Chiefs also allowed Josh Allen to run wild against them last week for 72 yards and gave up the 11th-most rushing yards per game to opposing QBs during the season. That all spells trouble against Lamar Jackson, who’s on another level as an athlete, even when compared to Allen.

When Baltimore does throw the ball, they should benefit from having Mark Andrews on the field. Andrews is expected to return from an ankle injury that’s sidelined him for multiple weeks. The combination of Andrews and Isaiah Likely could give Jackson plenty of options over the middle of the field against a Chiefs pass defense that’s vulnerable outside of top corner L’Jarius Sneed.

Prediction & Best Bets

As you can probably glean, I think the Ravens will win this game. However, I’m less inclined to bet the Ravens at the current line, as I have too much respect for Mahomes to lay anything over a field goal. 

That all being said, I’m happy to wait and see if Chiefs’ backers push this line back down to -3 before kickoff. If not, I’ll most likely take Baltimore on the moneyline.

From a prop perspective, I’m willing to take stabs on both Ravens running backs clearing their yardage totals. Although I’d recommend Gus Edwards going over 44.5 yards as my favorite play. The Chiefs gave up 86.9 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs despite seeing the seventh-fewest rushing attempts against them. Edwards has posted at least 45 rushing yards in 11 games this year and had 40 yards against the Texans before he was held out as a precaution due to a hand injury.

I also like a play on Isiah Pacheco to go over 63.5 rushing yards, as I think Kansas City will look to attack this Baltimore defense on the ground more often. Pacheco has cleared that total in eight games this year, including four of his last five.

I also am fading Zay Flowers in this game. While his yardage prop of 41.5 yards is too low given his big-play ability, I do suspect he’ll see limited targets with Sneed shadowing him as the main threat outside. Kansas City allowed only 10.8 receptions per game to opposing wideouts as well, so I’ll bet on Flowers catching fewer than 5 passes.

The Picks: 

  • Ravens Moneyline (-198)
  • Ravens -3 or Better
  • Gus Edwards Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
  • Isiah Pacheco Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
  • Zay Flowers Under 4.5 Receptions (-175)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

 

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