Andrew Erickson’s 2024 NFL Draft Prop Bet Card
The NFL Draft is fun, and this year I'll finally be getting in on ALL the action with mobile sports betting legalized in my area of residence. Below is my regularly updated sheet of prop bets for the 2024 NFL Draft.
Here are my mock drafts thus far, along with my other relevant articles related to this year's Draft and other futures-related NFL content:
- Andrew Erickson's Mock Drafts (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0| 4.0 | 5.0)
- Historical NFL Draft Picks of All 32 NFL Teams (2024 Fantasy Football)
- NFL Draft Needs for Every Team Post-Free Agency (2024 Fantasy Football)
- Erickson's Top 2024 NFL Futures: Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Best Ball Strategy: How to Approach the Middle Rounds (2024 Fantasy Football)
My approach to betting on the NFL Draft is to build a portfolio of bets where I focus more on long shots the further we are out from the end of April. We are so limited with information currently that shorter bets are probably being overvalued. Focus on the long shots and build off these bets the closer we get to April 25th.
Here are my favorite 2024 NFL Draft Prop Bets.
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Andrew Erickson’s Best 2024 NFL Draft Prop Bets
OT Kingsley Suamataia to be a 1st-round pick (+150 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Chiefs: Position of First Drafted Player in 2024 NFL Draft - Offensive Line (+140 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Date: April 23
I would highly recommend getting on the KC to take an OL (+140) with their 1st pick from this latest report from Tony Pauline. He led me right to RB Jahmyr Gibbs at BONKER odds last draft to be taken by the Lions.
Claims that KC is locked into BYU tackle Kingsley Suamataia at 32. Makes sense given that OT is still a major need for the KC’s offense, even though the WR need has been much more discussed by “BIG DRAFT†media.
Also, you can just go OL for +140 (trade down scenario into Rd 2/or they take another tackle that falls instead). Suamataia is +150 to be a Round 1 pick via DraftKings Sportsbook.
TE Ja'Tavion Sanders to be second TE selected - (+210 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Date: April 23
Texas tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders has been viewed as the consensus TE2 throughout the entire pre-draft process. Mockdraftdatabase has him listed at 59th overall as the TE2, nearly 25 spots ahead of the favored TE2, Ben Sinnott.
Sanders just turned 21 years old. He broke out very early in his college career at age 19 during the 2022 season, posting a 21% dominator rating with 5 TDs, 54 receptions (7th in the nation) and 613 receiving yards. In 2023, he was still extremely efficient even with his counting stats falling amid competition from two projected Round 1 WRs – Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell. He recorded zero drops on 67 targets and finished 3rd in total YAC among the 2024 tight end class. He averaged over 15 yards per catch – second highest in the class (15.2) – with his downfield presence. Sanders isn’t a complete blocker – much more of a tight end receiver type – but he has enough athleticism to be a solid receiving threat at the next level. There’s room for Sanders to grow given his youth and that will get him selected as the second tight end in this year’s draft.
Tony Pauline had Sanders inside his top-10 overall WR/TE rankings, with a late Round 1/early Round 2 projection. Dane Brugler has Sanders ranked as his 57th prospect (2nd-3rd round grade) with a large gap between him and TE3 (Theo Johnson). Daniel Jeremiah has Sanders as his TE3 – but he’s only behind Tanner McLachlan who DJ admitted he is much higher on than the NFL is. And Sanders is ranked ahead of Sinnott.
The Kansas State tight end would be a worthy bet if he were the long shot, but I don’t understand why he’s favored. Yes, he tested well at the combine, and that makes him a logical TE2 in the class for fantasy football. But keep in mind that some teams might view him more as a fullback given his experience. Maybe he’s the more “complete†tight end versus Sanders, but the latter gets my vote as the superior pass-catcher.
WR Xavier Legette Draft Position under 33.5 - (-108 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Xavier Legette is at the end of the first-round conversation given his odds of being a first-round pick which is listed anywhere between (+140 to +175). But the reason why getting the UNDER on the 33.5 is due to Carolina’s pick at No. 33. The Panthers TOLD Legette they would take him if he was still available. They’ve met with him multiple times and have reportedly told him if he’s sitting there at 33, they are going to take him.
The Panthers pick offers a pretty safe floor for Legette should he fall out of Round 1, but him going earlier still gets this bet to cash. NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah listed Legette as one of his “surprise†WRs that could sneak into Round 1 on a recent conference call.
Date: April 23
WR Adonai Mitchell Draft Position under 27.5 - (+130 via BetMGM)
Date: April 22
AD Mitchell’s initial draft position opened around 16.5/17.5 where it was hammered up to the current number. The sportsbooks were led to believe that Mitchell was going to be drafted much earlier than his current number suggests. And although I agreed that the 17-draft slot was too high, I love the under at 27.5. We don’t get Buffalo’s pick at No. 28, but Mitchell fits the “X†No. 1 WR archetype. The exact WR skill set that Bills GM Brandon Beane doesn’t want. So I don’t feel bad missing out on the Bills pick.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter was asked on the Establish the Run podcast about Mitchell’s draft position, stating he would project the Texas WR to be drafted lower than the 25-32 draft range. Guys with Mitchell’s intangibles – attitude issues aside – will have some team invest highly in him. The Steelers have shown interest at 20th overall as have the Bengals, Cowboys, Packers, Jets, Colts, Buccaneers and Jaguars.
OT Patrick Paul to be a 1st round pick – (+650 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Date: April 22
In my most recent mock draft (5.0) I listed Houston OT Patrick Paul as the 32nd pick overall to the Chiefs. It’s no guarantee that the WR-needy Chiefs take Paul, but it’s worth noting that Houston tackle has taken several visits with multiple teams from picks 28-33 (49ers, Bills, Chiefs, Panthers and Ravens). And he simply just profiles as a first-round tackle prospect. Paul posted the No. 1 PFF pass-blocking grade in the nation in 2023 (91.5). He’s built like a total mammoth at 6-foot-7 and 331 pounds with arm length in the 97th percentile. He’s very experienced with 5 years under his belt. I’d bet Paul will likely be valued higher by teams that need an immediate improvement at the tackle position versus those taking a long-term approach.
Note that these odds have shortened substantially from +1500 to +1000 down to +650. It’s even shorter on FanDuel (+370). Keep an eye out for his Round 1 prop across other sportsbooks that may be asleep at the wheel.
MarShawn Lloyd To Be First RB Drafted (+1400 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Date: April 22
USC’s Marshawn Lloyd is also rumored to be in the conversation as the RB1 in the class, after a strong pre-draft process. Opened at +600 for the former Trojan to be the first RB drafted on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Per Sportskeeda's NFL Draft Analyst Tony Pauline - many believe that Lloyd will push Benson as the first RB off the board as a major pre-draft riser through the Senior Bowl and NFL Scouting Combine. Lloyd has also ties to current NFL coaches from his time spent at USC with both the Commanders and Chargers. Those teams have a combined 6 picks on Day 2, inside the top 80 selections.
NFL.com draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah has MarShawn Lloyd listed as his No. 1 RB in his top-150 rankings. He’s been pretty good at aligning his per-draft rankings with actual RB draft capital. Lloyd is currently listed at +1000 (now up to +1400) to be the first RB selected on FanDuel with Texas RB Jonathon Brooks emerging as the overwhelming favorite days away from the draft.
Total QBs Drafted Under 4.5 (+270 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Date: April 3
Bet this early in April, but bringing it back up because I love it so much.
We have four quarterbacks locked into Round 1. Then it comes down to Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix hearing their name called on Day 1. But given Penix’s injury history, I’d say he falls into Day 2. And it seems like only the Denver Broncos are “high†on Bo Nix. If they don’t take him at 12, he could also experience a dramatic fall. Note that NFL Draft expert Daniel Jeremiah – very plugged into what NFL teams are doing – has not included Nix in either of his last two mock drafts since the NFL Combine. Nix was in mock draft 1.0 though.
At +215 the implied probability is 32%. I think this is closer to a 50/50 proposition, so I love the value. Check across books where I’ve seen this number boosted to +250 or higher (ESPN Bet, FanDuel etc.).
Also, I’d like to point out how OVERVALUED quarterbacks are every single season, specifically by the media. Wrote about it in my mock draft 5.0. The TLDR version:
“The media's most overvalued position is quarterback. Shook, I know. The narrative that teams fall in love with a QB is stronger in public perception than in actual reality. In yet, Will Levis had an EDP (expected draft position) at eighth overall - ahead of Anthony Richardson. Levis fell to the second round. Woof. Also, can't forget Hendon Hooker's EDP at 29 overall in 2023. He was drafted in the third round. Recall even in a stacked 2021 class where five quarterbacks were projected to go top-10, only three did so. And if it wasn't obvious, I am hammering the under on 4.5 QBs drafted in Round 1. Bo Nix (EDP 25) and Michael Penix Jr. (EDP 26) are just classic examples of media driving up QBs in mock drafts. That's not based.â€
LB Junior Colson to be a 1st-round pick – (+1300 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Date: April 22
The 49ers easily could go LB in Round 1 given the current state of their linebacker room. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw will be coming off a torn Achilles that he suffered in the Super Bowl, entering the last year of his contract.
Michigan linebacker Junior Colson has met with some LB-needy teams such as the Buccaneers, Cowboys, Seahawks and Steelers during the pre-draft process. Note that Dallas has the second-shortest odds to select a linebacker with their first pick (+340).
Daniel Jeremiah said on a recent conference call that he wouldn't be surprised if Colson gets drafted in Round 1. Recall that in 2023 no linebacker was projected to go in the first round. Jack Campbell was the first LB selected by the Lions at 18th overall well ahead of his pre-draft position in mock drafts (44th overall). In 2022, two linebackers were drafted in the first round: Quay Walker (22nd by Green Bay) and Devin Lloyd (27th by Jacksonville). Walker beat his pre-draft rank by 11 spots (31 EDP). It's been back-to-back seasons where a traditional LB has drastically beaten their EDP. And both times it was not even the consensus LB1 in the class.
Colson is not the consensus LB1 in the class. Love his longshot odds to sneak into the backend of Round 1 with the current odds. Colson also has plus odds to be the first LB drafted at +200 on FanDuel.
Also want to point out that the 49ers are polarizing at +5000 to draft a linebacker first on FanDuel. Again, they pick 31st and could even trade back further when LB is more of an appropriate selection.
Nate Wiggins To Be Second Cornerback Drafted (+750 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Date: April 22
As I examined in my latest mock draft 5.0, the CB position can become the Wild West in the NFL Draft. Scheme disparities across the board mean teams value/rank cornerbacks much differently than the public, who are ranking them without as much intel specific to the team fit. I feel confident that it will be either Quinyon Mitchell or Terrion Arnold who goes No. 1 (likely Mitchell). But as the CB2, I think Arnold might have some competition. Again, he ran a 4.51 (43rd percentile) at the NFL Combine. Although Cooper DeJean is viewed as the CB3 in the betting markets, NFL teams view him more as a safety. DeJean’s fall could be another CB’s gain such as Nate Wiggins.
Wiggins has his "backers" in the drafting industrial complex, given his speed of 4.28. He's underweight at 173 pounds, which could keep him off certain team boards, but it just takes one to have him picked highly. Note that Emmanuel Forbes-166 pounds soaking wet-was the second CB drafted last season ahead of Christian Gonzalez.
If you want a “safer†pick opt for Wiggins’ draft slot UNDER 28.5 at plus money (+118) via FanDuel Sportsbook. He’s met with the Falcons, Chargers, Steelers, Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers – all teams selecting inside the top 28 picks.
Kool-Aid McKinstry To Be Second Cornerback Drafted (+900 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Date: April 22
At the time of this writing, we have five teams in the first round “favored†to take a CB first: Colts (+110), Raiders (+150), Jaguars (-185), Eagles (+125), Lions (+135). And if I had to project any team to draft a CB well ahead of consensus, it would be the Jaguars. Trent Baalke needs his long-armed CBs. The Eagles are also rumored to be in the discussion to trade up for a CB in this year’s draft. Kool-Aid McKinstry’s draft stock has risen since reports that he will be ready for training camp after suffering a Jones fracture per Tony Pauline.
Kool-Aid has met with the Falcons, Eagles, Jaguars, Lions and Steelers. The former Crimson Tide CB has 32-inch arms (70th percentile). Music to the ears of the Jaguars GM.
His positional prop is listed at 29.5 with heavy juice toward the under at -172 (FanDuel Sportsbook).
EDGE Laiatu Latu to be 1st Defensive Lineman/Edge Selected (+200 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Date: April 22
UCLA’s Laiatu Latu is now essentially tied with Dallas Turner to be the 8th overall pick (Falcons) in the betting markets. Odds slightly vary by book, but it’s clear that Dallas Turner no longer has the vice grip as the first defender off the board with Latu and Byron Murphy II gaining steam. Latu has been reportedly medically cleared by most NFL teams, which has given his draft stock a major boost.
But more importantly, Latu is still behind Dallas Turner (-120) to be the first DL/EDGE drafted (+200). Why risk a CB leaping into the conversation when you don’t have to? It’s only +225 for Latu to be the first defensive player selected. Note that I already have hefty bags placed on Murphy to be the first defensive player selected.
Rams: Position of First Drafted Player in 2024 NFL Draft - Wide Receiver (+800 via BetMGM)
Date: April 22
Very early on in the pre-draft process, I took a stand on the LA Rams taking a CB with their first pick. While the betting odds have not moved in my favor, I still firmly stand by them not going with an OL prospect with the 19th overall pick. But given that this is Sean McVay’s first “1st†round-pick – as I wrote about in my mock draft 5.0 – we have to strongly consider this will be an offensive selection. Hence, WR. This also aligns with Les Snead’s track record. He drafted WR Tavon Austin 8th overall. He invested in 2nd-round picks in Van Jefferson and TuTu Atwell. It would hardly be surprising for the Rams to draft another WR given Cooper Kupp’s recent injury woes.
TE Brock Bowers to be a top-10 pick - (+135 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Date: April 22
Brock Bowers won’t fall farther than the Jets at 10th overall. Per Tony Pauline, Bowers is rated as the 5th or 6th highest player on most teams’ boards as the 2nd pass-catcher BEHIND Marvin Harrison Jr. Pauline agrees that the Georgia product won’t fall past Gang Green with LAC, TEN, CHI also targeting the tight end prospect. Bowers is listed at +110 to be drafted by the Jets on ESPN Bet (top-10 his odds are longer at +120). Go figure.
If you are looking for longer odds on Bowers – consider the Bears to land him at +1300. And for even LONGER odds, lock him into being selected 7th/8th overall – in a situation where teams trade up. Tony Pauline reported both Chicago/New York could move up for him with the Titans/Falcons as the logical destination spots.
If we feel like Bowers will go top-10 (feel confident), then we should push our chips in on at least one draft slot inside the top-10 picks. 7th is +3000, with the 8th overall picks listed at +5000.
Malik Nabers To Be First Non-QB Drafted (+1000 via ESPN BET)
Malik Nabers To Be First WR Drafted (+750 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Date: Feb. 26
Like Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers also elected to sit out testing at the NFL Combine. We will have to wait until the end of March to see him blow up the odds in his favor. In the meantime, I'll take advantage of the potential he gets drafted to Arizona ahead of Harrison Jr.
Marvin Harrison Jr.'s odds of being the Chargers pick at No. 5? +1400 on ESPN Bet (which I have also dabbled in).
Also, Adam Schefter said on his recent podcast, that he heard from multiple trusted sources at the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine, that Nabers and not Harrison Jr. would be the 1st WR drafted come April.
From a betting perspective, the value is all about Nabers being the first non-QB selected. Lance Zierlein had Nabers over Harrison in his last mock. Just one team picking inside the top-5 needs to be convinced he's the better WR to draft over Marvin Harrison Jr. If there's any GM that could go off script it would be Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort given his roots stem from New England - notorious for making the "wrong" WR selections. N'Keal Harry is the most recent one that comes to mind. Ossenfort was also part of the Titan's draft plans to select Treylon Burks in 2022.
The analysis up top was written when I was well ahead of Nabers as WR1 in the class. The betting odds have still not moved away from Harrison as WR1 (although they have shortened) – but FanDuel still has Nabers as the first WR off the board at +750. Still worth a sprinkle.
DT Darius Robinson to be a 1st round pick - (+140 via ESPN Bet)
Date: April 9
DT/DE Darius Robinson went off at Missouri’s Pro Day. Mel Kiper Jr. cited that NFL teams were "wowed" by Robinson in the positional drills. He's got a freaky build for a defensive disruptor that projects more an as interior defender than a pure edge rusher.
I remember him making my first mock draft, but the lack of buzz around him had him spill into honorable mention territory in subsequent mock drafts. That won't be the case moving forward.
Robinson first turned heads at the Senior Bowl in Mobile Alabama, so his draft stock was already high. He’s built like a strongman at 6-foot-5 and 285 pounds with chops as both a pass-rusher and run defender. He totaled 9 sacks and 42 pressures in just 12 games played in his final year at Missouri. He also posted a top-10 PFF run defense grade and the No. 1 true pressure rate (15%) among the 2024 DT class.
He recently attended the Lions local pro day, which could easily be a potential landing spot for him in the late part of Round 1.
OL Troy Fautanu To Be 9th Overall Pick (+3000 via BetMGM)
Date: April 9
I believe the Bears will look hard at a potential OL upgrade with the 9th overall selection. They’ve been connected with several of this year’s top-tier prospects throughout the process including Washington’s Troy Fautanu.
I haven’t been high enough on Fautanu through the draft cycle in my mock drafts, as the NFL seems to be higher on the versatile OL piece. He can play LT but also offers the ability to kick inside if needed.
Given the Bears are being vastly underrated by the betting market to select an OL, I can’t resist this pick at 30-1 odds.
CB T.J. Tampa to be a 1st round pick - (+900 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Date: April 9
In Trent Baalke we trust. That’s because the Jaguars GM’s track record of drafting long-armed players (specifically CBs) such as T.J. Tampa – 89th percentile wingspan, 75th percentile arm length – precedes him. Baalke owns a strong reputation and a tangible drafting record of gravitating toward players with long arms. Therefore, expect Tampa to be firmly on their radar as early as the 16th overall pick. Tampa’s currently listed with the 6th-longest odds to the first CB selected, but his size and physical profile will make him enticing for certain NFL teams.
Jacksonville is listed at -150 to select a CB with their first pick in the draft.
In addition to the Jaguars, he has also been connected to the Cowboys, Buccaneers and 49ers in the draft process. All teams that pick in the back-end of Round 1.
Tampa is my favorite bet among the “longshot†bets for players to be a first-round pick.
Bo Nix Draft Position over 32.5 (+110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Date: April 9
Speaking of QBs being drafted outside the first round – I feel confident that Bo Nix won’t be a first-round selection unless the Broncos pull the trigger on him early. Give me the over on his draft position at 32.5.
Total Defensive Players Drafted Under 11.5 (+125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Date: April 3
My latest mock draft (4.0) featured under 11.5 defensive players. And it featured just 4 QBs being selected, and the Chiefs selecting a CB. I also included only 6 WRs – the betting line is set at 6.5 – and 10 offensive linemen with the betting line set at 9.5.
And still, the under hit at 11 total defensive players.
This draft is just too jam-packed with WR and OT talent for teams to be too aggressive in drafting defensive players.
J.J. McCarthy To Be Drafted 3rd Overall (+430 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Date: April 3
I took a deep dive into the new Patriots’ de facto GM, Eliot Wolf, to see if I could unearth what he looks for in a potential franchise QB. After doing some digging, I still felt like Drake Maye would be the preferred target, but J.J. McCarthy also checked off a ton of the criteria Wolf looks for. Leadership, winning mentality, intangibles, body language and youth. Then I heard later on from our guy Tony Pauline that Wolf is pushing "hard" for McCarthy. That's the narrative from the other GMs around the league. I don’t think that’s a smoke screen, given McCarthy’s body of work at Michigan.
For a potential factor payout – look for FanDuel’s offering of the top-3 picks in the NFL Draft to be the following: Caleb Williams 2. Jayden Daniels 3. J.J. McCarthy. This is listed at +750.
Blake Corum To Be First RB Drafted (+600 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Date: March 19
There is no clear “RB1†in this class. It’s the wild wild west. Therefore, we can get great value on the odds for the first RB selected. For me, that’s Michigan’s Blake Corum. I noticed his odds were WAY OFF on FanDuel compared to DraftKings, which caught my attention. The line has since moved to +600, but his status as a consensus top-3 RB in the class alongside Trey Benson and Johnathan Brooks still has me buying Corum to hear his name first at 6-to-1 odds.
The guy does all the “right†things that NFL teams will covet at RB. He’s not the flashiest, but some coaching staffs will love his “gritâ€.
No. 2 Overall Pick: Jayden Daniels (+120 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Date: March 7
Across the majority of sportsbooks, the odds have closed drastically between Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels as the QB2 and the No. 2 overall pick in the draft. Maye is still the slight favorite (-125), but the odds have moved since my Mock Draft 1.0 (previously at -190). Remains to be seen which of the two QBs the Commanders prefer - they are going QB regardless - and it's plausible they don't even know how they are going to select at this point in the process. Initially, I saw no reason to change my stance on Maye at No. 2 overall. A lot will be made about this potential QB's fit in new OC Kliff Kingsbury's offense, but new GM Adam Peters will likely also have a large input on the future franchise QB. He's referenced that his new home in Washington is eerily similar to his situation when he first landed in SF back in 2017 - citing the team needs to build through the draft. Trading "down" is still a possibility in my estimation.
All in all, Peters saw the disaster that was Trey Lance during his tenure in SF. He also benefitted greatly from the Brock Purdy selection, claiming that the tape and how well he played the QB position pointed them in Purdy's direction. And although Lance's rushing ability makes more sense in comparison to Daniels, I think Maye has more of the boom-or-bust profile that Peters would rather avoid. Injuries withstanding, Daniels offers more of an under-the-radar game manager with strong fundamentals, accuracy and decision-making. Maye has the arm and a size that offers ceilings like Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. But that is accompanied by inconsistent play at times, like from what we saw from him in 2022 versus 2023. The other thing that is overlooked about Daniels - is his experience. 5 seasons of college ball. 55 games. Purdy played 48 games at Iowa State.
TEN Titans: Position of First Draft Pick in 2024 NFL Draft - WR (+2500 via ESPN Bet)
Date: March 20
After the Calvin Ridley signing, it's pretty obvious that the Titans will go OL in Round 1. However, one could argue they couldn't risk that the "right" WR would fall to them in the draft. Hence, why I wouldn't just assume that WR is off their draft board after the Ridley signing. Especially when you can get the odds as high as 25-1 (ESPN Bet) versus -550 (FanDuel) for them to take OL. The offensive line makes the most sense after their free-agency moves, but I don't think it's the lock of all locks. Will they draft an OL player first? Probably.
But I am willing to throw a WR bet at 25-to-1 odds to find out if that's certain. You better believe it. Last season, the Titans splurged in free agency on OL and still drafted an OL in Round 1. They could do the same at WR. DeAndre Hopkins and Nick Westbrook are in the last years of their deals. Treylon Burks was drafted by the previous regime. Ran Carthon comes from the 49ers organization, where he has seen multiple weapons be needed for a young QB to thrive.
Joe Alt To Be First Non-QB Drafted (+2000 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Date: March 21
We continue to fade Marvin Harrison Jr. as the favorite to be the first non-QB drafted. This time it's on the basis that the Cardinals will be trading back from No. 4 overall. That suggests QBs go 1-2-3-4. And that leaves the Chargers on the clock with their highest-ranked non-QB available. And I feel strongly it's going to be an offensive tackle or a trade-down. But with all QBs gone, they won't be able to trade down. Going with a tackle makes so much sense given what they have done with their offensive personnel during the offseason, under the new tutelage of Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman. They don't want a No. 1 WR to be a run-blocker in a ground-and-pound rushing attack. Again, the Chargers are favorites to select an OL with their first pick at -125 odds. So, if they pick at 5, it's likely Notre Dame's Joe Alt as the favored selection as the first non-QB drafted, presuming a trade-up has already transpired for the 4th overall pick. If you'd prefer to play it safer in the case that trade doesn't occur at 4, just take Alt at +470 to be a top-5 pick on FanDuel.
J.C. Latham To Be First Offensive Lineman Drafted (+1500 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Date: April 3
But for even crazy longshot odds, Alabama's RT J.C. Latham is +7500 in this same spot as the first non-QB selected. It’s the same narrative play with the Chargers selecting an OL first. But the reason it's Latham is that he plays RT. LAC already has a franchise LT in Rashawn Slater. This way, they don't need to flip LT Alt to the right side.
The Chargers spent a lot of time working out Latham at Alabama's' pro day. Meanwhile...Alt struggled somewhat at the combine during the right tackle drills.
On the surface, nobody should be surprised if an offensive tackle from Alabama gets drafted as the first non-QB. Latham is also +1500 to be the first OL selected, +2500 to be a top-5 pick on ESPN Bet, +750 to be a top-10 per DK and +180 for his draft position to be under 14.5 on Caesars Sportsbook. The latter is my favorite draft position bet among the OTs available on the board.
Because if it's not a pass-catcher at No. 5 overall, Jim Harbaugh will draft an OL piece that can further improve the run game. Specifically at RT given that is where the team needs to desperately upgrade from Trey Pipkins. Given that JC Latham is the highest-ranked pure RT, he could be the first OL drafted. Per the 33rd Team, one of Latham's strengths is his run-blocking power. Music to the ears of Harbaugh and his run-heavy offense.
NY Giants: Position of First Draft Pick in 2024 NFL Draft - Offensive Line (+750 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Date: March 3
Evan Neal was horrible in 2023, grading out as PFF's 3rd-worst tackle in 7 games played. Two years in, and the former 7th overall selection in the 2022 draft has been a colossal bust. The Giants offensive line was horrible overall in 2023, with the league's second-worst pass-blocking grade. So yet again, OL is at the top of the board for the Giants. Both of their starting guards from last season are also FAs. Mark Glowinski has already been released with him previously scheduled to hit FA in 2025.
Everybody is pegging a WR to the Giants (like last season) and they instead waited until Round 3 to take Jalin Hyatt. QB is also popular, but they are stuck with the Daniel Jones contract. I don’t think they overthink just taking the best OT on the board, given the fall-off at the position after Round 1. Chances are they will prefer the OT-WR combination versus the WR-OT reversal with their first two picks.
I gave the Giants, Notre Dame OT Joe Alt, in my mock draft 2.0.
Marvin Harrison Jr. to be selected by the NY Giants (+4000 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Date: March 21
I’m very bullish on the Giants selecting a WR. As is the market. The current odds for New York to draft a WR are at -175 per DraftKings Sportsbook. And that WR is heavily rumored to be Malik Nabers. But there’s enough smoke around Nabers as WR1 that Harrison might fall into the Giants’ lap. I’m also not convinced that the Chargers want to take a WR (favorites to take an OL) and either Arizona/LA will trade down for a team trading up for a QB. Assuming QBs go 1-2-3, there are several scenarios where Big Blue lands MHJ, potentially even without a trade.
Arizona goes Nabers, LAC goes Alt. Checkmate. Arizona trades out. LAC goes Alt/Nabers. Harrison again to the Giants. Arizona takes Nabers, LAC trades out. Harrison again to the Giants. Considering Arizona is the only legitimate threat to take Harrison ahead of the Giants, and trade back could lock Harrison to the Giants. Get these odds now before a trade happens.
SEA Seahawks: Position of First Draft Pick in 2024 NFL Draft - DL/EDGE (+110 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Date: March 20
Evan Neal was horrible in 2023, grading out as PFF's 3rd-worst tackle in 7 games played. Two years in, and the former 7th overall selection in the 2022 draft has been a colossal bust. The Giants offensive line was horrible overall in 2023, with the league's second-worst pass-blocking grade. So yet again, OL is at the top of the board for the Giants. Both of their starting guards from last season are also FAs. Mark Glowinski has already been released with him previously scheduled to hit FA in 2025.
Everybody is pegging a WR to the Giants (like last season) and they instead waited until Round 3 to take Jalin Hyatt. QB is also popular, but they are stuck with the Daniel Jones contract. I don’t think they overthink just taking the best OT on the board, given the fall-off at the position after Round 1. Chances are they will prefer the OT-WR combination versus the WR-OT reversal with their first two picks.
I gave the Giants, Notre Dame OT Joe Alt, in my mock draft 2.0.
Xavier Worthy to be selected by the CIN Bengals (+2500 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Date: March 20
Bengals director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin has been running the show as the team's de facto general manager since as early as 2013. Over that time, he's been no stranger to investing high-end draft capital into offensive linemen. Since 2015, the Bengals have drafted five offensive linemen (Cedric Ogbuehi, Jake Fisher, Billy Price, Jonah Williams, and Jackson Carman) with first- or second-round picks. But they've also selected a wide receiver in the first round (John Ross and Ja'Marr Chase) twice. Their other recent highly drafted WRs have been second-rounders (Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins). Bolstering OL and WR with high-end draft capital is something the Bengals are not shy about doing as they look to get back into Super Bowl contention, even if they appear set at each position post-free agency.
They tagged Higgins and signed RT Trent Brown in free agency. But neither are long-term answers.
They need to acquire a cheap player in this year's draft at one of those premium positions. The last time the debate was between OL vs WR, WR came out victorious. And I'd bet these Bengals don't change their stripes when it comes to this decision in 2023. Tobin was part of the front office that drafted John Ross after he broke the 40-yard dash record at the NFL combine in 2017. He will repeat the process by drafting Xavier Worthy after he broke the all-time 40-yard dash record time at the NFL Combine.
The betting odds are 25-1 for the Bengals to draft Xavier Worthy.
Quinyon Mitchell To Be First Defensive Player Drafted (+380 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Date: March 6
Atlanta looks like the most logical team inside the top-10 to be the first to draft a defensive player, given the current construct of their roster. If so, I could very much see them taking a cornerback.
A.J. Terrell and Mike Hughes will hit FA in 2025. With Jeff Okudah and Tre Flowers also free agents, cornerback is another area that Atlanta may need to improve. Especially because the coverage unit ranked in the bottom-10 last season, compared to the run-stuffing defense that ranked second in PFF's run-defense grading. The Falcons had formal meetings with several of the top CBs in this year’s class at the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine.
And right now, Alabama’s Terrion Arnold and Quinyon Mitchell are duking it out for CB1 alpha status. Per FanDuel Sportsbook, Arnold is listed at +500 to be the first defensive player drafted. Only Mitchell has shorter odds among CBs (+380) and it’s continuing to drop. The Falcons met with Mitchell at the combine. He ran a 4.33 40-yard dash (95th percentile) with a 74th percentile vertical jump at 6 feet and 195 pounds. He is rising up draft boards for a reason.
Falcons: Position of First Drafted Player in 2024 NFL Draft - Cornerback (+450 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Date: March 20
The betting markets favor Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner between -200 and -225 odds to Falcons. But given that Turner isn't a can't-miss generational pass rusher, I think this is a bit of overconfidence by the betting markets. Again, betting "favorites" this far out isn't the right approach. Still believe CB is strongly in play here between Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold. +400 for the Birds to select a CB with their first pick per DraftKings Sportsbook. (-250 for EDGE/DL). These odds should not be this stark given the need for both. Much closer to 50/50 in my estimation.
Cornerbacks A.J. Terrell and Mike Hughes will hit FA in 2025. With Jeff Okudah (Texans) and Tre Flowers gone, cornerback is another area that Atlanta may need to improve. Especially because the coverage unit ranked in the bottom-10 last season, compared to the run-stuffing defense that ranked second in PFF's run-defense grading.
Also, one needs to consider the defensive coordinator change to former Washington HC Jimmy Lake. Like Morris, he’s a former defensive backs coach. They love ball hawks. Both Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold finished top-5 in the nation last season in pass breakups. Arnold had five picks. Given that the A.J. Terrell has the pedigree as a true No. 1 CB, this rookie CB will need to be battle-tested. Both Mitchell and Arnold check off that box.
Byron Murphy II To Be First Defensive Player Drafted (+2500 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Byron Murphy II To Be 8th Overall Pick (+4000 via BetMGM)
Date: March 20
Atlanta at 8 overall is where I feel strongest about the first defensive player being selected. With defensive head coach Raheem Morris taking over, he and GM Terry Fontenot might flip the script and likely look HARD at the highest-ranked defensive player on the board after going offense the last three seasons.
It's going to come down to CB vs EDGE. And I wouldn't even completely rule out an interior pass rusher as a contrarian pick for Atlanta. Morris did so as much in 2 of the last three seasons with the Buccaneers as their previous head coach, with selections of game disruptors Gerald McCoy and Adrian Clayborn. And as the Rams defensive coordinator this past season, LA's defense ranked first in interior pass-rush win rate.
Hence, Byron Murphy II.
The former Longhorn finished with the second-highest pass rush win rate (30%) on true pass sets in 2023 as an interior defender. Per PFF, he was the only interior defender to finish inside the top-10 in PFF pass rush grade on true pass sets.
Per Mockdraftable.com, one of Byron Murphy's closest comparisons on the DL is Kentavius Street. Street was just re-signed to the Falcons. Another one of his closest comps is Grady Jarrett. FantasyPros' own Thor Nystrom compared Murphy to Justin Madubike.
Give me Murphy at 25-1 odds to be the first defender selected. For longer odds, it's +3400 for him to be the 8th overall pick. I prefer the latter given the odds and the fact that Atlanta to Murphy is the main scenario where he is also the first defender selected.
Brock Bowers To Be Drafted by the Los Angeles Chargers (+1000 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Date: March 20
If I were to diversify my selection at the No. 5 overall pick (assuming LAC stays), it would be targeting tight end Brock Bowers to be the 5th overall pick. +5000 on FanDuel. Wasn't that long ago when Bowers was the FAVORITE (in Mock Draft 1.0) to be drafted by the Chargers. His odds are 10-1 to be selected by the Chargers (regardless of where they select).
It's hardly far-fetched to envision new Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh following an unorthodox approach with a TE selection in the top-5. He loves tight ends.
Per PFF, only Iowa has targeted its tight ends more than Harbaugh's Michigan teams among the entire FBS. Ergo, it's an important position to Harbaugh's offensive philosophy, and there's no better prospect than Bowers in this class. Or perhaps ever as Bowers is regarded as the greatest college football tight end of all time.
They want to run the football. Another win for tight end over wide receiver. And lastly the HC/GM combination of Harbaugh and Joe Hortiz (from Baltimore) screams they will have completely different values on the "non-premium" positions.
I think chasing the Chargers' pick in a trade-down scenario is a better approach than projecting the QB another team trades UP for. If LAC trades back, Bowers could easily be in play. But if they are unable to do so, they might stick and pick the Georgia tight end at 5 overall.
Love targeting LAC to Bowers in this trade-down bet at massive-long shot odds.
Brock Bowers To Be Drafted by the Tennesse Titans (+1300 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Date: March 21
The Titans selecting the No. 1 rookie tight end is also attractive given their position at 7th overall and dire need for an upgrade at the position. +1400 on FanDuel for the Tennesse to land Bowers. +3100 for him to be the 7th overall pick. I like splitting the middle with +2000 odds for the Titans' first pick to be a tight end per ESPN Bet.
The Titans have been looking at Florida State's Jaheim Bell as a later tight end option in this year's draft, but it at least shows they are interested in the tight end position should Bowers be available at 7th overall.
Titans GM Ran Carthon's background with the 49ers doesn't necessarily put a premium on offensive line versus pass-catcher, given the scheme can make up the difference with poor OL play. The 49ers have valued receivers with their top picks and they could easily do the same with a premier tight end like Bowers in this year's draft. Recall, that Carthon saw first-hand what George Kittle could add to an offense in SF.
Per Tony Pauline, the Chargers, Titans, Bears and Jets are all in on Bowers. Possibly he won't make it past Denver at No. 12.
Chiefs: Position of First Drafted Player in 2024 NFL Draft - Cornerback (+750 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Date: March 10
Let’s be real here. The Chiefs are likely going to trade away CB L’Jarius Sneed after signing Chris Jones to a 5-year deal worth $95 million. That opens up the potential they look to the draft to add another cornerback. WR is the chalky pick…but KC has waited until Round 2 in back-to-back seasons to draft a WR. I also think they are strongly in the market to add a guy like WR Darnell Mooney in free agency, given his connections with Matt Nagy. OL is the next in the betting odds (+275) and it makes sense. 2023 marked the fourth consecutive season the team drafted an offensive lineman in the first five rounds since 2017 (Wayna Morris). But that being said, they have three tackles – Morris, Lucas Niang, and Jawaan Taylor – under contract. Also very possible all the top rookie tackles are gone by their pick at 32. Signing Jones makes it less likely the go EDGE/DL in Round 1, given the commitment. Brett Veach has drafted a defensive lineman in five of the last seven drafts in the top three rounds. Last year, the trend continued with the selection of defensive end Felix Anudike-Uzomah 32nd overall.
For me, the best value is for the KC Chiefs to draft a CB at +750. The odds will only shorten after a Sneed trade, which seems like a matter of when rather than if at this point.
Rams: Position of First Drafted Player in 2024 NFL Draft - Cornerback (+600 via BetMGM)
Date: April 3
This one comes directly from research in my FantasyPros article, NFL Free Agent & Draft Needs for Every Team (2024 Fantasy Football).
"The Rams skated through last season with almost zero investment in their defense. No team has less money invested in their secondary than the Rams. Finishing 21st in pass defense DVOA with a no-name secondary unit is impressive, but there's obvious room for growth - 32nd in PFF coverage grade.
I'd imagine they invest heavily in defensive backs in the NFL Draft.
They have drafted more defensive backs in the first three rounds than any other position. In 2022, they drafted two cornerbacks and a safety with three of their first five selections. After completely foregoing any defensive back in last year's draft, their draft strategy should normalize with secondary options."
Even after the additions of Darious Williams and Tre'Davious White. He tore his Achilles in Week 4 of the 2023 season. He has played 11, 6 and 4 games over the last 3 seasons while dealing with injuries.
The betting markets are overvaluing the loss of Aaron Donald, and ignoring the Rams’ clear connection to selecting a cornerback in this year's draft.
Ravens: Position of First Draft Pick in 2024 NFL Draft - Wide Receiver (+750 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Date: March 5
Offensive tackle, interior offensive line, DL, and/or edge are the top needs for the Ravens to get back to the AFC Championship Game in 2024. It's going to be an uphill battle regardless with so many losses (including their defensive coordinator) on the defensive side of the football.
But another wide receiver also makes sense, given the lack of depth behind Zay Flowers with Odell Beckham Jr. hitting free agency. How Baltimore adds to the WR room will be a litmus test about how they feel about Rashod Bateman entering the final year of his rookie contract (5th-year option withstanding).
They've got impending FAs across the OL this season (John Simpson, Kevin Zeitler) and next season - Patrick Mekari, Ben Cleveland, and Morgan Moses.
Left tackle Ronnie Stanley is under contract for two more seasons but has gone through ups and downs since his injuries started piling up. If the Ravens see an opportunity to upgrade from Stanley, don't think they won't pull the trigger to do so. The front office is not happy they are paying him like a top-5 LT. If they see a future franchise tackle on the draft board, they will pull the trigger. Hence, the Ravens are listed with +140 odds to draft an OL first per DraftKings Sportsbook, followed by DL/EDGE (+200), and then CB (+400).
But given that all the tackles might be gone and they need a WR (+700 To draft a WR) I don’t think it’s crazy to think they go with another wideout for their MVP QB. As you’ll find, I am going aggressive on this longer shot odds for several teams to draft a WR in Round 1, given how rich the class is this season.
49ers: Position of First Draft Pick in 2024 NFL Draft - Wide Receiver (+700 via ESPN Bet)
Date: March 5
On ESPN Bet you can get it +700 odds for the 49ers to select a WR...which is interesting should they trade Brandon Aiyuk. They are “saying†all the right things when it comes to keeping/extending Aiyuk, but it’s no guarantee they get a deal done. If they trade Aiyuk, these odds will come crashing down. Note that the 49ers held formal interviews with multiple top OL prospects, many of which project to be long gone by the time they select at 31st overall.
They also looked at WRs that are projected to be available in Round 1 or Round 2 – Xavier Legette, Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr., and Xavier Worthy – which could suggest they might be preparing for life after Aiyuk.
Cowboys: Position of First Draft Pick in 2024 NFL Draft - Wide Receiver (+700 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Date: March 5
In terms of the NFL Draft, what Houston does at pick No. 23 will likely influence the Cowboys' selection at No. 24. They have overlapping needs across OL, CB and DL - but those could change depending on how the team addresses revamping the roster in free agency. Dallas could also go the "sexy" route and give Dak Prescott another WR weapon. Odds for Dallas to land a WR? +750 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Keep an eye out for one of these Texas rookies WRs staying "in-state." Michael Gallup had already been released and Brandin Cooks is entering the last year of his contract. Further bolsters the case for a rookie WR to call Big D home in Round 1. They have already held formal interviews with first-round WRs such as Troy Franklin, Xavier Worthy and AD Mitchell. Updated odds are listed at +500 for Dallas to go WR as of March 2oth.
HOU Texans: Position of First Draft Pick in 2024 NFL Draft - Cornerback (+450 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Date: April 3
On the defensive side of the ball, the area of weakness for Houston is their pass defense after they finished second-best in run defense DVOA. Acquiring another top-tier CB across from Derek Stingley would be ideal. After all the moves Houston made I think the DL/EDGE spot is solid, but CB is still a bit of a sore spot. I like the longshot +450 odds of them drafting a CB with their first pick in the NFL Draft per DraftKings Sportsbook. WR is obviously less of need after the team acquired Stefon Diggs through trade this offseason.
TB Buccaneers: Position of First Draft Pick in 2024 NFL Draft - OL (+650 via ESPN Bet)
Date: March 21
As always shop the best lines. OL is +165 on DraftKings for the Buccaneers’ 1st pick. This is a massive difference at +650 for an obvious need for Tampa Bay. Originally, I looked at the +450 odds at CB for TB, but these OL odds were too good to pass on.
On offense, the Buccaneers could not run block for a lick in 2023. They need to get better play from the interior of their offensive line. Last year's second-rounder Cody Mauch needs to play much better in Year 2. Guard Aaron Stinne signed with the Giants and his backup Matt Feiler is still a free agent. Across the OL, the Bucs added OT Justin Skule, RG Iosua Opeta and Ben Bredeson. Opeta was a former Eagle, so he's got some upside. Bredeson was a Giant. Downgrade from Stinne. Skule was Tampa Bay's practice squad for the last two seasons. OL desperately still needs work, especially at IOL.
Jaguars: Position of First Draft Pick in 2024 NFL Draft - Wide Receiver (+350 via ESPN Bet)
Date: March 5
The Jaguars are favorites to take a CB with their first selection (+180 DraftKings Sportsbook) - although it is tied with DL/EDGE. WR is a distant third at +300, but that could change given that WR Calvin Ridley is likely to test free agency. If they lose Ridley, these odds will shorten. As of March 20th – after the free agency period – the odds have shifted to the Jaguars selecting a WR as +150.
Bengals: Position of First Draft Pick in 2024 NFL Draft - Offensive Line (+110 via ESPN Bet)
Date: March 7
The Bengals will most likely lose RT Jonah Williams in free agency, setting the stage for Cincy to draft his replacement in the 2024 NFL Draft.
The Bengals are listed with +110 odds to draft an OL first, followed by DL/EDGE (+250), and then CB (+450). WR is the longest on ESPN Bet at +1400, and I think it’s worthy of the long-shot proposition. Again, this WR class is rich. And the last time it was OL vs WR for the Bengals, they went WR. With Tee Higgins a potential tag-and-trade candidate (also only on a one-year deal if he plays under the tag), WR could become a bigger need than most realize. Like the 49ers, they have met with several projected Round 1 WRs already this offseason.
Dolphins: Position of First Draft Pick in 2024 NFL Draft - Edge/Defensive Line (+210 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Date: March 7
On defense, Jaelan Phillips will also be up for a new contract at the end of the year. It comes at a really bad time with Miami's DL missing guys like Andrew Van Dinkel, Raekwon Davis, and Christian Wilkins, also free agents in 2024. Wilkins was not franchise-tagged and will likely be long gone.
To add legitimate insult to injury, Bradley Chubb's Week 17 torn ACL adds another wrinkle to the Dolphins' pass rush woes into next season. The team also cut DE Emmanuel Ogbah to save close to $14M in cap space.
I understand OL being the favored position for Miami to draft first, but their DL has nobody left. Given the edge class might be stronger versus OL by the time they pick, they might alter course and go with a defensive lineman in Round 1.
Lions: Position of First Draft Pick in 2024 NFL Draft - Edge/Defensive Line (+225 via ESPN Bet)
Date: March 7
The Lions' Achilles heel on defense showed up at the worst time in 2023, with their secondary getting shredded by opposing offenses.
Cornerback is a MUST in this spot as they look to align their strong run defense in the backend. Hence, the Lions are listed with +160 odds to draft a CB first per DraftKings Sportsbook, followed by OL (+200), and then DL (+225). Still, I think there's some value on DL, given the top-tier CBs/OL prospects might run dry toward the end of the first round.
LV Raiders: Position of First Draft Pick in 2024 NFL Draft - Cornerback (+185 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Date: March 20
CB Jakorian Bennett struggled as a rookie, and they lost Amik Robertson as another CB starter in FA (signed with the Lions). New head coach Antonio Pierce has stressed the need for a CB1. By the time they pick at 13, all the QBs worthy of Round 1 draft capital will be gone. And the biggest need for the Raiders – as noted in my team needs article post free agency – across their OL is at guard, not tackle. Note the number has moved down since +250 for the Raiders to take a cornerback with their first pick in the NFL Draft.
Jets: Position of First Draft Pick in 2024 NFL Draft - OL (+200 via ESPN Bet)
Date: March 18
Two words. Offensive line. Whoever the top tackle remaining on the NFL Draft Board will inevitably be the Jets selection at No. 10 after they missed out on the top tier in last year's class thanks to Bill Belichick. And this is even after they added during the free agency period with a few immediate band-aid fixes, as Aaron Rodgers isn't getting any younger. 33-year-old tackle Tyron Smith signed with the Jets in free agency. 1-year and $6.5 million. The definition of a band-aid fix.
Interestingly enough, the Jets also traded for OT Morgan Moses (also 33 years old). Moses was traded from the Ravens after finishing last season as PFF's 10th-highest-graded tackle. He figures to slide in at the starting RT position. He played with the Jets back in 2021.
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Jets' betting odds to draft an OL with their first selection were listed at -145, followed by WR and DL/EDGE - before free agency. After the moves they made, the sportsbooks are throwing their hands up at what the Jets will do.
FanDuel has OL as the favorite at +170. DK/ESPN has the TE as a favorite (+120). It's +175 for them to draft OL. Do the books know that Tyron Smith's next game might be his last? And that Moses is in the last year of his deal? WR depth is much more plentiful than OT in this draft. Unless Brock Bowers gets picked here, I am confident it will be OL over WR for Gang Green. Plenty of FA WRs left that New York could sign.
Case in point, Mike Williams was signed to a one-year deal worth $15 million, but he's going to be 30 years old. It's another band-aid fix that shouldn't dramatically alter the Jets' draft plans on a WR.
J.J McCarthy To Be Drafted 4th Overall (+450 via Caesars Sportsbook)
Date: March 21
Somebody is going to trade up for J.J. McCarthy between Denver and Minnesota. And my best guess to which team is most likely to trade down inside the top 5? The Cardinals. They traded down last season. Monti Ossenfort comes from the Patriots organization, notorious for trade downs. They got their guy anyway by trading back UP into the top-10. Look for Ossenfort to move up and down the board after QBs go 1-2-3 to open this year’s draft.
Drake Maye To Be Drafted 4th Overall (+1200 via ESPN Bet)
Date: March 26
As of this writing, the team with the most logical path to a trade-up for a QB is the Minnesota Vikings with the Cardinals looking to trade down. The Vikings also might prefer Drake Maye as their QB of choice, as some sources such as Cecil Lammey from FootballGuys have reported. Makes sense given Josh McCown’s prior relationship with the UNC passer.
Drake Maye To Be Drafted 5th Overall (+2400 via ESPN Bet)
Date: March 26
It’s the same process as above, but with the Chargers, not the Cardinals providing the trade for Minnesota to move up for Maye should he fall. The Maye fall comes in a scenario where the Patriots go J.J. McCarthy at No. 3 over Maye. Speaking of which…
J.J McCarthy To Be Drafted by the Denver Broncos (+500 via BetMGM)
Date: March 5
Russell Wilson is gone in Denver, slating the team to select its next signal-caller of the future with the 12th overall pick. This team is tied to Sean Payton, and he will undoubtedly have the final say when it comes to selecting his future QB over GM George Paton. Kirk Cousins’ landing in either Atlanta/Minnesota will undoubtedly boost the odds for Denver to acquire McCarthy, with one less QB-needy team left on the board.
J.J. McCarthy To Be Drafted by the Minnesota Vikings (+500 via BetMGM)
Date: March 7
I think it’s J.J. McCarthy or Bust when it comes to the Vikings’ QB situation in 2024. If they can’t re-sign Kirk Cousins, I’d agree that McCarthy would be the next best logical fit in Kevin O’Connell’s offense. They pick one spot ahead of Denver. And I just don’t envision either Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. at their respective old ages, fitting the mold of a Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's draft selection. If you want to play the longest odds game, Raiders at +1000 to land McCarthy is the best payout, but it’s tough to envision them leap-frogging both Denver/Minnesota at pick 13.
Bo Nix To Be Drafted by the New Orleans Saints (+850 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Date: Feb. 17
Derek Carr did enough in the second half of last season to keep the starting job in 2024. But after the 2024 season, his dead cap falls to $17 million versus his $45 million salary cap hit. If he underwhelms in 2024, he could be on the way out of New Orleans. Ergo, I would not rule out the Saints adding a QB in this year's draft class under new OC Klint Kubiak. They won't add any QBs in free agency with Carr entrenched as the starter, so I think these odds will only get shorter, given that the Vikings, Raiders, Patriots, Broncos and Falcons are in more dire straits at the QB position currently. Those teams will likely alter their QB rooms in free agency, pushing their odds of selecting a rookie signal caller down the board. Also, there is a chance that Nix falls in the draft into late Round 1/early Round 2, and the Saints pick again at No. 45 overall. At the scouting combine, the Saints met with Daniels, Maye, McCarthy and Nix.
I’ll stand by my stance that the Saints land one of the top-5 QBs in this class at some point during the draft. Either Nix or Penix.
Bo Nix To Be Drafted by the Dallas Cowboys (+15000 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Date: April 9
I think there’s some massive value in some longshot bets for Bo Nix to be drafted by a team, named the Denver Broncos. The betting markets are overly convinced Denver is going to land the Oregon QB because he seems like the ‘perfect fit’ in Sean Payton’s offense. But we live in reality. And the reality is, the Broncos have zero second-round picks to take Nix, so they will have to finagle a trade to land the preferred QB or take him 12th overall.
I’d say it’s aggressive to project Nix at 64% implied odds (-175) of becoming a Bronco. Therefore, I’ll take the road less traveled and aim for the longest odds for a wildcard team to take Nix either at the end of Round 1 or sometime in Round 2. Insert the Dallas Cowboys.
Keep in mind that Dallas has no plans to extend Dak Prescott in a contract year. They want to see it play out. Cooper Rush is also in the final year of his contract. The Cowboys are one of the most underrated spots for a QB to land should Jerry Jones want to place additional pressure on Prescott to deliver a Super Bowl in 2024. Given the money that is going to be invested in two stars like CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons, Prescott might be the odd-man out come next season. By drafting Nix, that gives Dallas a QB plan should they choose to move on from Prescott. It would also
The other longshot I like for Bo Nix is to Seattle (+3000 FanDuel). Everybody has Michael Penix Jr. linked to the Seahawks given the OC connection, but the team has shown a lot of interest in the former Ducks quarterback. Makes sense, given that Oregon played Washington thrice during Ryan Grubb’s tenure with the Huskies.
Michael Penix Jr. To Be Drafted by the New Orleans Saints (+2500 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Date: Feb. 17
This is the same sentiment about Nix to the Saints. Michael Penix Jr. and Nix seem to be falling into a third tier behind the other four top QBs in this draft class, making who picks them a total guessing game if they start to slip. I like my chances of at least one of these players being on the board when the Saints pick at No. 14 and potentially at pick 45.
Again, the move on the play for the Saints stems from them entering the draft with the same QB situation they are currently in. The Patriots, Falcons, Vikings, Broncos and Raiders all seemed primed to add QBs before the NFL Draft, making it less likely (at least by the projected betting markets) that they will draft a QB highly.
Michael Penix Jr. To Be Drafted by the Atlanta Falcons (+3000 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Date: April 9
I haven’t dabbled into the Michael Penix Jr. market since very early this draft season, but I wanted to get more exposure to the former Washington southpaw. The best value on the board – aside from betting the favorites such as the Raiders, Vikings, Broncos, Giants, etc. – in my estimate is for him to be drafted by the Atlanta Falcons at 30-1 odds. We know the Falcons signed Kirk Cousins to a massive deal in free agency, but he’s coming off an Achilles injury. The Falcons cannot afford to rest with Taylor Heinicke as their backup option (he’s also a free agent at the end of the year) if things go south for Cousins to start the 2024 season. They are a team that is pushing its chips in, and they’d be wise to invest in a high-upside backup passer like Penix. The Falcons have shown interest in the 24-year-old QB, recently holding a private workout for Penix along with a top-30 visit and combine meeting. I think Penix is an appropriate fit in Zac Robinson’s offense, presuming it draws parallels to the Kevin O’Connell and Sean McVay systems. Penix has been connected to the Rams (+2500 BetMGM to be drafted by Los Angeles) throughout the process. And presuming the Falcons can select a DL/EDGE player with the 8th overall pick, they don’t have many other glaring needs on the roster from what I can tell. They can afford to take a luxury/insurance pick in the form of a future franchise QB should Penix fall to pick 43, which is ahead of where the Raiders, Saints, Broncos and Giants pick after the first round.
Jayden Daniels To Be Drafted by the Denver Broncos (+1800 via ESPN Bet)
Date: Feb. 17
These are the longest/best odds I could find on a QB-needy. Jayden Daniels could go as early as second overall or - given his one-year breakout - perhaps fall farther than most expect into the teens. Denver could also trade up with New England, putting them in a position to snag the LSU product. The Broncos have been in QB Purgatory ever since the Peyton Manning days. If Sean Payton wants "his guy" (possibly Daniels), he will do whatever it takes to move up and get him.
Bet this early in the process, so don’t feel as great about it now (see my opening bet) but I think linking QB-needy teams with the longest odds is the smart approach.
Brock Bowers To Be Drafted by the New England Patriots (+3600 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Date: Feb. 17
This is something to keep tabs on. New OC Alex Van Pelt loves tight ends. It is very possible that if the Patriots trade down – as reported by Tony Pauline – so they could scoop up Brock Bowers near the top 10 instead of selecting him at 3rd overall. Note that Bowers has shorter odds of being the first non-QB drafted (+2000), despite the Patriots selecting at three, which is the most realistic earliest slot he could be taken.
I also like the odds of Bowers being drafted by the Giants at +2900 on FanDuel. New York showed value in the tight end position last season with the acquisition of Darren Waller. OC Mike Kafka comes from the Chiefs regime, where the tight end played a pivotal role in their offensive success. A lot of connections have them to a top receiver in the draft with somebody like Malik Nabers, but they may go in a different direction with a tight end instead. Bowers is talked about as the "best pure receiver" in the class by many scouts, so it's not impossible that he could be viewed extremely highly by Big Blue.
My favorite “favorite†team to land Bowers is the Colts (+500). But given my longshots already in place, it would only serve as a poorly advised hedge at 5-1 odds. Not long enough for me with a team picking in the middle of the draft to be confident enough at those odds.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: