Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Miami Hurricanes Odds & Game Pick (2021)
After Week 1, it’s obvious that no team is close to Alabama when it comes to skill level and competition. Miami’s goal was to stick around against Alabama in Week 1, and they couldn’t even do that, losing 44-13 in embarrassing fashion. On the other hand, Appalachian State handed East Carolina their first loss of the season with a convincing 33-19 win at home. Questions are starting to surround Miami and its program. They’ve been hyped up ever since D’Eriq King committed to Miami, and things just haven’t come together.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
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Details
- Opening Lines: Miami -9; O/U 54.5
- Current ATS Line: Miami -8
- Current Over/Under: 54.5
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 11, 2021
- Start Time: 7.00 p.m. EST
- Television: ESPNU
- Last Meeting: Miami defeated Appalachian State 45-10 back in 2016. This was their first and only meeting.
Overview
Appalachian State is always the real deal in college football. They’ve stuck around with great teams, won big upsets, and overall just have developed talent over the years.
The Mountaineers brought in former Clemson and Duke transfer Chase Brice, who delivered in his first start. Brice went 20-for-27 with 259 yards passing along with two touchdowns and one interception. He connected on long plays with Thomas Hennigan and overall looked comfortable in the pocket.
On the other hand, Miami didn’t look great going up against the top team in the league. Miami lost 44-13 to Alabama, struggling on the defensive end and getting nothing going on the offensive end until the game was out of reach. Miami secured just 18 first downs and 266 total yards of offense while allowing Alabama to gain 501 yards in the game.
If anything, Miami’s pass rush did get some pressure on Bryce Young and had 10 tackles for a loss. The talent is there, but it’s still developing for Miami. Obviously, Miami can’t play any worse against App State in comparison to their bout against Alabama. D’Eriq King threw two interceptions on 31 attempts and averaged just 5.7 yards per completion. That has to improve for the offense to start consistently getting down the field.
Trends
- Hurricanes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Hurricanes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Line Movement
*Line movement analysis based on the DonBest Las Vegas betting market ticker*
Miami opened as a nine-point favorite but have moved slightly lower to -8 against the spread. The total hasn’t moved.
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Prediction
Miami should bounce back from their dreadful start to the season. They weren’t ready to face the best team in the league, and it showed. But those types of games help build character.
Defensively, the pass rush should be great against Appalachian State, especially with App State struggling to protect Brice against East Carolina.
On the offensive end, Miami has all the talent, and they’ll put it together. The Mountaineers had solid run defense against East Carolina, but they lacked solid coverage and have a weakness there that King and the Miami offense can exploit. King also didn’t use his legs and feet as much against Miami, rushing nine times for 10 yards. Look for that to change, as long as he’s healthy enough, against Appalachian State. Having a guy under center with his ability is everything. He can clinch third downs with his feet and run away from pressure when the pocket breaks down.
The Mountaineers’ worst portions of their defense was strictly their coverage and tackling. Miami has plenty of shifty positional players along with King, who can escape from pressure.
Miami should be at least a 10-point favorite in this game, and I would play Miami up to -10 here.
Pick: Miami -8 (-110 at DraftKings)
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