Arizona Wildcats vs. Oregon Ducks Odds & Game Pick (2021)

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Both the Arizona Wildcats (0-3) and No. 3 Oregon Ducks (3-0) kickoff regular-season Pac-12 conference play in Week 4. Arizona’s 24-16 loss against BYU Cougars as 13.5-point home underdogs in Week 1 was its only cover of the season. The latter two Wildcats’ losses have come as favorites against non-Power 5 schools. On the other hand, Oregon’s victory at the Ohio State Buckeyes Sept. 11 in The Horseshoe was one of the most impressive victories of any program thus far. However, that victory is sandwiched in between two mehhhhh wins as massive home favorites against the Fresno State Bulldogs (Sept. 4) and Stony Brook Seawolves (Sept. 18).

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Details

• Opening Line: Oregon -27
• Current Line: Oregon -28.5
• Over/Under (O/U): 58.5
• Location: Autzen Stadium
• Start Time: Saturday, September 25, 2021, 10:30 p.m. ET

Trends

Oregon hired head coach Mario Cristobal in 2018, and this is Arizona head coach Jedd Fisch’s first year on the job. Cristobal’s Ducks are 1-1 overall and against the spread (ATS) vs. the Wildcats. Since 2018, Oregon is a Pac-12-best 18-7 overall vs. conference opponents but just 13-12 ATS with a plus-0.6 spread differential. The Ducks are 16-0 overall as a home favorite since the beginning of 2018, but only 5-11 ATS as a home favorite over that span. Drilling down even further, Oregon is 9-0 overall as 17.5-point favorites or great but just 3-6 ATS.

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Action report

There’s one-way action, all in Oregon’s direction. The Ducks opened as a 27.5-point favorite, which has been steamed up to more than four touchdowns by the market. Nearly 80% of the cash wagered is on Oregon with close to 90% of the bets placed on the Ducks (according to Pregame.com). Both the money and handle columns of the betting splits favor the Over in Oregon-Arizona as well. However, we are getting a bit of a “line freeze” as the total hasn’t budged from the opening number (according to VegasInsider.com).

Handicap

There’s not a lot to like about Arizona Wildcats football at the moment, but the fact is that Oregon hasn’t covered these huge numbers in the Cristobal era. It’s hard to figure out a reason why. Maybe there’s a football idiom to be used about having your guys locked in for every game that Cristobal isn’t communicating in the Oregon locker room. I don’t know. What I do know is fading Oregon as a huge favorite has a great return on investment. Also, this could be a look-ahead spot for the Ducks, who visit a Stanford Cardinal team with a winning record.

Furthermore, since the Ducks have shown they’ll take their foot off the gas against bad teams and 28 is a nice, round football number, “the backdoor is wide-open” for Arizona. It also helps that Oregon ranks 89th in defensive passer efficiency rating and has one of the lowest havoc rates of any Power 5 defense. If Oregon’s defense isn’t motivated to get after Arizona, then I could see the Wildcats having success in the passing game. The Ducks’ pass defense ranks in the lower-third of Power 5 schools in predicted points added (PPA). On top of that, college football gurus disagree with the AP Poll’s ranking of Oregon. For instance, ESPN’s Bill Connelly has Oregon 15th in his SP+ rankings and Football Outsiders ranks the Ducks 16th in their FEI ratings. Oregon is also outside the top-30 in net drive efficiency, net points per play and net points per drive.

Don’t think of this as us betting on a really bad Arizona team going through a rebuild. But, instead, we’re fading an Oregon team that has no incentive and is minus-EV in games as huge favorites.

Pick: Arizona +28.5 for a half-unit (-110)

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Geoff Clark is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Geoff, check out his archive and follow him @Geoffery_Clark.