Arkansas vs. Duke Odds, Spread, Pick and Predictions for 2022 NCAA Tournament

by Mike Spector |
Mar 25, 2022

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Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Duke Blue Devils Game Info

Arkansas Razorbacks (28-8, 13-5 SEC) vs. Duke Blue Devils (31-6, 16-4 ACC)

Date: Saturday, Mar. 26, 2022
Start Time: 8:49 p.m. ET
Location: Chase Center - San Francisco, CA
Coverage: TBS
Last Meeting: April 4, 1994 - Arkansas defeated Duke 76-72 in the National Championship Game.

Arkansas vs. Duke Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Moneyline: ARK: (+155) | DUKE: (-185)
Point Spread: ARK: +3.5 (-110) | DUKE: -3.5 (-110)
Total: 147.5 - Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

Betting Trends

Arkansas 2021-22 Betting Trends: 21-15 ATS; 21-15 to the Over
Duke 2021-22 Betting Trends: 19-16-2 ATS; 21-15-1 to the Over
Arkansas is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as underdogs
Arkansas is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS win
Arkansas is 1-4 ATS in its last five NCAA Tournament games
Duke is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as favorites
Duke is 2-7 ATS in its last nine NCAA Tournament games (covered the last two)
The over is 7-2 in Arkansasâ€™ last nine games
The under is 5-1 in Arkansasâ€™ last six neutral site games as underdogs
The over is 13-3 in Dukeâ€™s last 16 games
The over is 7-1 in Dukeâ€™s last eight neutral site games

Overview

For the first time since the 1994 National Championship Game, the Arkansas Razorbacks and Duke Blue Devils meet on the hardwood. Both Arkansas and Duke won as underdogs in the Sweet 16, setting up this unexpected Elite Eight matchup.

Dukeâ€™s games down the stretch are must-see television, as each could be head coach Mike Krzyzewskiâ€™s last. The Razorbacks have not made a Final Four since consecutive appearances in 1994 and 1995. Meanwhile, this is Coach Kâ€™s 17th Elite Eight appearance, and Dukeâ€™s win over Texas Tech was his 100th NCAA Tournament win, both records.

Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Preview

Coming off of Arkansasâ€™ upset win over Gonzaga, more of the narrative surrounds the Bulldogs and their once again failed quest to win a national championship despite earning the tournamentâ€™s overall No. 1 seed. However, the Razorbacks deserve their due for an impressive performance, especially on the defensive end. Gonzaga came into the Sweet 16 averaging 82.9 points per game over its previous 14 NCAA Tournament games. However, the Razorbacks held Gonzaga to 68 points and 5-for-21 shooting from 3-point range. And while Arkansas shot 7-for-25 from 3-point range, they won the turnover battle 15-8 and fouled out top NBA prospect Chet Holmgren with stellar post play and aggressive attacks on the rim. Arkansas has now won 18 of its last 21 games entering this matchup.

Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview

Dukeâ€™s previous two games against Michigan State and Texas Tech have come tantalizingly close to being Coach Kâ€™s last. When Duke trailed Michigan State by five points with 5:10 remaining in the Round of 32, it had a win probability of 25.1% before out-scoring the Spartans by 14 points down the stretch. Duke only trailed Texas Tech by two with 3:19 remaining on Thursday, but its win probability was only 42.5% before closing on a 12-5 run.

Give Coach K credit for the adjustments he made in the Texas Tech game and for pulling the right strings from a roster standpoint and getting his team ready for the tournament. Texas Tech was seemingly imposing its will offensively on Duke, but Krzyzewski switched to a zone, which the Red Raiders had trouble figuring out for a while. In addition, point guard Jeremy Roach made big plays down the stretch and provided Duke with a much-needed scorer to complement Paolo Banchero. Roach had been benched at times at the end of the regular season and ACC Tournament, but he has responded since being inserted in the starting lineup with 42 points and 13 assists through the first three rounds of the NCAA Tournament.

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Duke Blue Devils Betting Pick and Prediction

Given the amount of public attention paid to Dukeâ€™s impressive win, it is tempting to back the Razorbacksâ€™ point spread odds. However, the way the Blue Devils have turned it on late in comeback wins over Michigan State and Texas Tech is impressive. That should worry Arkansas backers, as Duke has looked like a national championship team in those stretches.

Thus, the better value play is the over. What Duke did in the second half against Texas Tech is some of the most impressive offensive basketball we have seen in recent memory. Duke made its last eight field goal attempts and did not miss from the floor over the gameâ€™s final 8:55. Overall, the Blue Devils shot 71% in the second half, which is the highest percentage the Red Raiders have allowed in a half to any opponent over the last seven seasons. Overall, Duke scored 1.22 points per possession, an impressive feat considering they faced the best defensive team in the country.

While Duke stymied Texas Techâ€™s offense by switching to zone unexpectedly, Arkansas head coach Eric Musselman will make sure his team is prepared for whatever the Blue Devils throw at them. Arkansasâ€™ last two NCAA Tournament games have gone under the projected total, but the Razorbacks had the over cash in their previous seven games. The Razorbacks are still a team that ranks 28th in adjusted tempo, which means this game should surpass the projected total if Arkansas is interesting in playing fast again. Even if they do not, there is still too much offensive momentum with Duke to back the under.

Pick: OVER 147.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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