Arkansas vs. Illinois: 2023 NCAA Tournament Best Bets & Picks
March Madness is officially here! The 2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket has been announced, and the teams are lining up for the Big Dance. Let’s take a look at the early odds, previews, and predictions for the 2023 NCAA Tournament Round 1 game: Arkansas vs. Illinois.
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2023 March Madness Odds, Preview & Predictions: Arkansas vs. Illinois
Arkansas vs. Illinois Odds, Spread & Match Up Overview
- Arkansas Spread: -2.5
- Illinois Spread: +2.5
- Arkansas Moneyline: -140
- Illinois Moneyline: +115
- Game Over/Under: 145
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Arkansas 2023 NCAA Tournament Betting Preview
After Trevon Brazile went down early in the season, it looked like Arkansas’ tournament hopes were slim. While Arkansas isn’t exactly in the tier of elite Final Four contenders, Eric Musselman has done a solid job of pulling this team together as it enters the NCAA Tournament.
If we look back at last year’s Arkansas team, it hit a midseason lull and entered the tournament as a 4-seed before making a run to the Elite 8. This year, with Anthony Black and Nick Smith leading the way, and with solid depth pieces in Davonte Davis and Ricky Council, Arkansas could conceivably take a similar tournament path. Musselman is one of the college basketball coaches I trust the most, as he is coming off back-to-back Elite 8 appearances.
With a talented roster and a top-20 defense, the Razorbacks are an incredibly difficult team to prepare for. They excel at getting to the rim and drawing contact, and interior scoring has been a strength. Defensively, Arkansas allows the fewest looks from beyond the arc, but if a team can get in the lane against them, the Hogs do allow a high free throw rate.
Obviously, the ceiling isn’t as high now as it seemed to be preseason. But the elite teams have to be quaking in their boots at the thought of facing Eric Musselman’s squad.
Illinois 2023 NCAA Tournament Betting Preview
Illinois seemed ready to show out in the Big Ten this year after bringing in Terrance Shannon and Matthew Mayer this offseason. Combine those two additions with Coleman Hawkins down low and R.J. Melendez as a role player and the sky seemed to be the limit for this Illini squad in the preseason. The Illini failed to rise above the pack in a Big Ten race characterized by parity and more or less got lost in the shuffle.
Illinois got quality wins over UCLA and Texas early in the season that have aged well. The Illini’s interior scoring ranks in the top 25, but they struggle from beyond the arc, ranking outside the top 300. Defensively, Illinois limits opponents to sub-45 percent shooting from inside the arc and does a solid job of rebounding with its 16th-ranked height.
With the talent Illinois has and its experience out of conference, there is a wide range of possible outcomes for the Illini in this tournament. An elite defensive team might give Illinois’ sub-50th-ranked offense trouble. Virginia handled the Illini this season, and Northwestern split with them. I expect Illinois to be a straightforward team this tourney, winning a game or two before bowing out without much fanfare.
Arkansas vs. Illinois 2023 NCAA Tournament Predictions
The rims might get a ton of work in what should be a tightly-contested 8-9 battle. Both Arkansas and Illinois are highly talented, but completely erratic teams. Both could conceivably go on a deep run in this tournament, or bow out early. Oh, and both can't shoot the 3-point shot whatsoever. The Razorbacks rank 303rd in 3-point shooting, the Illini rank 331st. The difference is Illinois stubbornly loves to shoot threes at the 66th highest rate, while Arkansas recognizes its weaknesses and barely attempt them. The Hogs are a short favorite and rightfully so. I suspect they can benefit from a couple of advantages in this matchup. Arkansas ranks 47th in 2-point defense, 26th in 3-point defense and can turn teams over. That's critical against an Illini team that can get loose with the ball. And while Arkansas fouls at an excessive rate, Illinois' offense isn't predicated on getting to the line. In a battle of teams that are mirror images of each other, I'll take the stronger defensive club in Arkansas.
Arkansas vs. Illinois 2023 NCAA Tournament Picks
Arkansas -1.5
More Round 1 & First Four Betting Picks & Predictions
South
- #16 Texas A&M-CC vs. #16 Southeast Missouri St. (First Four)
- #8 Maryland vs. #9 West Virginia
- #5 San Diego St. vs. #12 Charleston
- #4 Virginia vs. #13 Furman
- #6 Creighton vs. #11 NC State
- #3 Baylor vs. #14 UC Santa Barbara
- #7 Missouri vs. #10 Utah State
- #2 Arizona vs. #15 Princeton
East
- #8 Memphis vs. #9 Florida Atlantic
- #5 Duke vs. #12 Oral Roberts
- #4 Tennessee vs. #13 Louisiana
- #6 Kentucky vs. #11 Providence
- #3 Kansas State vs. #14 Montana State
- #7 Michigan State vs. #10 USC
- #2 Marquette vs. #15 Vermont
West
- #1 Kansas vs. #16 Howard
- #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Illinois
- #5 Saint Mary’s vs. #12 VCU
- #4 UConn vs. #13 Iona
- #11 Arizona State vs. #11 Nevada (First Four)
- #3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Grand Canyon
- #7 Northwestern vs. #10 Boise State
- #2 UCLA vs. #15 UNC Asheville
Midwest
- #1 Houston vs. #16 Northern Kentucky
- #8 Iowa vs. #9 Auburn
- #5 Miami vs. #12 Drake
- #4 Indiana vs. #13 Kent State
- #11 Mississippi State vs. #11 Pitt (First Four)
- #3 Xavier vs. #14 Kennesaw State
- #7 Texas A&M vs. #10 Penn State
- #2 Texas vs. #15 Colgate
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