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Arkansas vs. Ole Miss: College Football Week 6 Odds & Picks (2023)

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Let’s dive into the matchups for Week 6 of the College Football season!

Our angle in this article is straightforward:  We are looking at teams with a rushing identity or teams facing these rushing-oriented teams.

We are working with some new data this year via SIS Sports Inc., which I hope will take us to another level when it comes to finding value. The new metric I am working with is Rush Rate Over Expectancy (RROE). This gives us a more nuanced look at teams rather than just saying, ” They rush the ball a lot.” Anyone can look up a team and see that they run the ball at a high volume, what I want to find is teams that rush the ball at a high frequency in certain situations compared to the average team.  We will be looking at RROE on Standard Downs and Passing Downs.

Here are all of my picks for the week. Below we dive into Arkansas vs. Ole Miss.

College Football Week 6 Top-30 Rush-Rate Picks: Arkansas vs. Ole Miss

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Overview

The thought process for anyone reading this for the first time is simple:  We target teams with a top-30 RROE in Standard Downs and Passing Downs. We will look at six main advanced defensive statistics to measure how successful the matchup is: Defensive Stuff Rate, Defensive Line Yards, Defensive Rush Success Rate, Defensive Power Success Rate, Defensive IsoPPP (explosiveness), Standard Downs Rate and PFF Rush Defense.

There are several angles at play:

  • An underdog with a high RROE vs. an opponent who is below average in the defensive rush categories. They will have the opportunity to limit possessions and control the game script.
  • A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent who is stout against the run. They will be forced to employ a game plan that does not fit their overall identity. A favorite's plan B strategy will never be as dangerous as its preferred method of offense.
  • An underdog with a top-30 RROE vs. a stout defense. The favorite in this scenario has the opportunity to blow a game out of reach and leave the underdog behind the proverbial eight-ball.
  • A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent that is lackluster in the aforementioned categories. In this scenario, we prefer the favorite to be, at most, a 10-point favorite.

The reason for this thinking is that high RROE will always lead to fewer possessions and overall points. The overall margin for error will be slimmer. This allows us to simplify the handicapping perspective and focus on unbalanced teams.

Here's a summary of the teams we are looking for:

  • Underdogs with a top-30 RROE vs. below-average defenses
  • Underdogs with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE favorite
  • Favorites with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE underdog
  • Favorites with a top-30 RROE (not greater than -10) vs. a below-average defense

Glossary

  • Stuff Rate: Tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage
  • Def Line Yards: Yards directly influenced by the defensive line
  • Def Rush Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on second down and 100% on third and fourth down.
  • Rush IsoPPP: Explosive rush plays allowed (15 yards or more)
  • Def Power Success Rate: The percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from two yards or less in which an offense either converted into a first down or scored a TD. First and second down and goal plays within the two-yard line are also included.
  • PFF Rush Defense: PFF film-graded metric
  • Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average rush rate is 60%)
  • Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average rush rate is 40%)
  • RROE: Rush Rate Over Expectancy (Percentage over expected rush rate in situations)

Arkansas @ Ole Miss

Arkansas

  • 13th in RROE on Standard Downs (+12.3%)
  • 33rd in RROE on Passing Downs (+5.7%)

Ole Miss

  • 130th in Def Power Success Rate
  • 128th in Def Stuff Rate
  • 119 in Def Line Yards
  • 92nd in Def Rush Success Rate
  • 53rd in Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 76th in Def PFF Rush Grade
  • 72nd in Standard Downs Rate

Ole Miss is coming off a game-of-the-year candidate against LSU. The drama in that game was palpable. This week, they face off against a different style of offense that is looking to physically dominate in the trenches. If you want to beat Ole Miss, you cannot try to outpace them; you have to slow the game down and limit possessions. Arkansas will look to implement exactly what Alabama did, which happens to have a similar RROE profile.

Bet: Arkansas +11.5 (-110) & Arkansas ML (+350)

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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