Arman Tsarukyan vs. Beneil Dariush: UFC Fight Night Odds & Picks (2023)
If there was a title fight on this card it would arguably be a top-5 event of the year. I mean the name recognition is incredible. You have numerous storylines that are intriguing to not only casual fans but diehard MMA fans. Not to mention, there is incredible value available in several fights. These matchups will kick off a huge month for the UFC. Let’s dive in! Here are my top picks for UFC Fight Night Dariush vs. Tsarukyan. Below we dive into Arman Tsarukyan vs. Beneil Dariush.
UFC Fight Night Dariush vs. Tsarukyan Picks: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Beneil Dariush
Arman Tsarukyan (-298) vs. Beneil Dariush (+240)
Arman Tsarukyan
- Dist Acc Off: 41.6%
- Dist Att/Min: 13.20
- Dist Def: 52%
- KD%: .6% (1 KD out of 160 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 43.4%
- Control % Def: 8.3%
Beneil Dariush
- Dist Acc Off: 45.5%
- Dist Att/Min: 12.06
- Dist Def: 61%
- KD%: .8% (1 KD out of 124 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 46.6%
- Control % Def: 7.4%
Arman Tsarukyan is viewed as possibly the new guard in the lightweight division but he has been around since 2019. He is a relentless fighter with an extremely high motor. He only has two losses his UFC debut vs Islam Makhachev and then a highly contested fight vs Mateusz Gamrot. Arman has elite offensive control while also possessing the striking acumen to fight at a distance. Beneil Dariush went on an eight-fight winning streak only to be bested by the boogeyman Charles Oliveira. Dariush matches up well with Arman simply because they share similar strengths and he does have the advantage in defensive discipline. The winner of this arguably will be catapulted to the title picture and the loser will have much work to do. I believe this line is a little wide and too much stock is being put in Dariush’s last fight. He is a 3 to 1 underdog and that is too much.
Bet: Beneil Dariush (+240)
Record:
- ML: 52-45-3 (+9.31 units)
- Props: 13-33-1 (-3.30 units)
- Parlays: 4-26 (+1.79 units)
- Overall: +7.80 units
MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.
We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's dive into these compelling matchups!
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!