Armed Forces Bowl: College Football 2022 Bowl Game Picks & Predictions (Baylor vs. Air Force)

Here's a look at the bowl-game spreads and totals for Fenway Bowl with my projections. You can also find my best bets. And here are all of my best bowl game bets for the upcoming week.

2022: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

Note: Spreads are from the favorite's perspective. ATL stands for "Adjusted Thor Line." ATT stands for "Adjusted Thor Total."

Armed Forces Bowl: College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Bets

Armed Forces Bowl | Fort Worth, TX
Thursday, December 22 | 6:30 PM
Baylor (-5.5) vs. Air Force | Total: 49
ATL: Baylor -4.8 | ATT: 51

Baylor
QB Kyron Drones (Transfer portal)
RB Josh Fleeks (Transfer portal)
WR Gavin Holmes (Injury)
WR Seth Jones (Transfer portal)
S Devin Neal Jr. (Transfer portal)

QB Drones was a backup and RB Fleeks was used sporadically off the bench. RB Fleeks, a former receiver, never really found a positional home. WR Jones was a secondary receiver who posted a ghastly 50.0 PFF grade in his snaps. WR4 Holmes' status is unknown with a leg injury. Holmes is a solid player, but if Baylor's top-three receivers can handle most of the snaps, his absence won't be devastating if indeed he's forced to miss the game.

The biggest loss is S Neal, who posted 41 tackles. But Baylor had three safeties who logged more snaps, so perhaps they can paper-over his defection as well in this game.

Air Force
None reported

Coaching news
Following the end of the regular season, Baylor fired DC Ron Roberts and special teams coordinator Ronnie Wheat, who also coached safeties. Baylor's defense fell to No. 66 in points allowed and its special teams ranked No. 119 in efficiency.

Handicap
Air Force is an extremely straightforward handicap. The Falcons' triple-option offense runs the ball more than any offense in America - and very effectively (Nop. 14 success rate, No. 17 efficiency, No. 7 opportunity rate, No. 2 stuff rate). And the Falcons play nasty defense (No. 9 SP+).

To beat the Falcons, it's a similarly straightforward proposition: You must greatly slow down its rushing attack, forcing Air Force into the third-and-long situations it languishes in. And you must be able to throw the ball effectively. Air Force's stingy defense is especially stout against the run.

Baylor doesn't profile as a squad that should be favored by nearly a touchdown against Air Force. The Bears' run defense is poor, ranking No. 100 in success rate, No. 102 in efficiency, No. 78 in opportunity rate, and No. 126 in power success rate.

Baylor also is a run-first offense, though obviously not as lopsided as Air Force (No. 35 standard-down run rate, No. 40 passing-down run rate). That's an offensive preference that unfortunately leans directly into Air Force's defensive strength.

Baylor QB Blake Shapen needs to be outstanding for the Bears to win by margin in this game. Air Force's passing defense ranks a more-manageable No. 59 in success rate (but No. 26 against explosion).

During the regular season, Shapen posted a mediocre 16/10 TD/INT rate. To be fair, he acquitted himself a bit better in PFF's grading (No. 53 out of 160 qualifiers). But it would be fair to deem Shapen a middle-of-the-road FBS starter at this juncture. And Baylor's receiving corps is highly uninspiring.

Baylor also limps in on a three-game losing streak, off a disappointing 6-6 regular season. The Bears didn't even come close to their 7.5 preseason win total. Meanwhile, Air Force has won four-straight, and the Falcons covered the number in all four of those games.

Baylor HC Dave Aranda covered in the only bowl game Baylor played in while he's been at the helm. But Aranda is at a major bowl experiential disadvantage here. Grizzled veteran Air Force HC Troy Calhoun is 7-5 ATS in career bowl games.

Air Force lost only three games this year - all by seven points or less. Which makes sense for a slow-moving offense with a strong rushing attack that plays awesome defense. We'll take the generous amount of points with a live underdog.

The pick: Air Force +5.5

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