2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Odds, Picks & Predictions
Links golf is a characteristic attributed more to the coastal dunes of the United Kingdom, where St. Andrews and Carnoustie are whipped by the Atlantic winds and bring visiting golfers to their knees. At Pebble Beach Golf Links, those conditions are transplanted to “sunny California†to create a second golf Mecca.
The northern coast of California can be downright bone-chilling. The golf gods often reside where the sun doesn’t shine. The marine layer fog and dreary squalls visit Pebble Beach often. That reality is no different this year for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but the rest of the event has undergone a much-needed facelift.
Back in my day, Sonny, the professionals and celebrity amateurs would play on a three-course rotation with Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and Poppy Hills. The latter took a bow in favor of Monterey Peninsula Country Club for a few years, but now the powers that be have finally listened to my private thoughts that this tournament should only feature Pebble and Spyglass. The purse is elevated for a PGA Tour signature event, enticing the world’s best back to the holy land in an 80-player, no-cut romp down 17 Mile Drive.
2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings SportsBook)
Betting this new-look tourney is as much excitement as I’ve had since I started as a golf writer. I have half a mind to take the 90-minute drive to catch the final round on Sunday. Weather will be wet, windy and wild. The two courses feature miniscule pawprints for putting greens to attack, putting approach accuracy on a heavily important pedestal. The Poa Annua on those greens is as tricky to understand as any in the world. Rumors are swirling that the rough has not been mowed. Carnage is afoot this week in NorCal. Let’s tee off.
Xander Schauffele
Simply put, I don’t trust the top golfers in the world in these conditions at such short odds. Schauffele is a master with a wedge in his hand and one of the most adept in this field at putting on Poa greens. He is also one of the more trustworthy ball-strikers in inclement weather. Smart betting means occasionally going down a theoretical tier to get the best payout.
Picks: Outright +1400 [1u]; Top-5 +280 [1u]
Jordan Spieth
Perhaps no other golfer in this field feels as confident around Pebble Beach as Spieth, who has made a career worth of success here. Maybe it’s the ability to leave his erratic driver in the bag on most holes. It could also be the emphatic stress these two courses place upon a golfer’s short game and ability to scramble, where the Texan is absolutely world class. I believe it started there and has now blossomed into a comfortable confidence that is now innate. I will now bet on Spieth with the same measure of assuredness.
Picks: Outright +1600 [1u]; Top-5 +360 [1u]; Top-10 +170 [1u]
Russell Henley
Henley is an enigmatic golfer to bet on. He is a four-time winner on the PGA Tour, with most of those triumphs coming on golf courses that demand tremendous accuracy and precision. He has shown good form in his appearances at Pebble Beach, but has seen his betting odds slip this week in light of the heightened quality of competition this week. I will not be deterred. Henley is exactly the prototype for a winner this week and checks in at seventh overall in my model.
Picks: Outright +4500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +500 [1u]
Chris Kirk
I love rooting for Chris Kirk. He is a humble dude and is among the most consistent competitors we have in professional golf. I understand why he is such a longshot to win at Pebble Beach, but he ranged between second and twelfth in my weighted model. Kirk’s short game is immaculate and he is a very strong wedge player who thrives in difficult conditions. That’s more than enough to put some money on him to make noise this week.
Picks: Outright +9000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +230 [0.5u]
Kurt Kitayama
There are a few NorCal natives in the field this week, but none of them are the caliber of golfer that Kitayama is. This is his “favorite week of the season†and will have the full-throated support of his friends here. With weather conditions figuring to be a nasty slog, Kitayama’s penchant for grinding out good scores will suit him extremely well. He knows how to putt confidently on Poa greens and is among the best in the world with a wedge in his hand. Leaving the driver in the bag off the tee will put him in fewer perilous positions to attack these tucked pins, which is similar to Spieth in that regard.
Picks: Outright +11000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +320 [0.5u]
Sam Ryder
Ryder is so hot right now. His recent form is much stronger than his distant odds would suggest. I will also throw a couple bucks on him to win outright at 300-1, but smart money is on an appearance near the top of the leaderboard after 72 holes. Ryder was 10th in one of my preliminary models and further filtering did not drop him out of my periphery in the slightest. It is perfectly normal to confidently lay money on long shots in no-cut events. Ryder is a premium moneymaker this week.
Picks: Top-20 +600 [0.5u]; Top-40 +140 [0.5u]
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: