Things started so well last week. My first two Anytime Touchdown (ATD) and First Touchdown (FTD) picks netted five total touchdowns, including a first touchdown. But things got away from us a bit after that. The total hit was only about 0.7 units. Hopefully, that was just a bump in the road. Below are my picks for all 13 games on the Sunday slate, excluding the showdown on Sunday night between Detroit and Minnesota.

This week is going to be tricky when it comes to anytime touchdown and first touchdown picks. Many players have question marks surrounding their workloads. Because of this, sportsbooks have not listed anytime touchdown and first touchdown pricing for multiple games. With so much up in the air, touchdown prices can move quickly. I am authoring this week’s article as late as possible to mitigate some of the movement. But nothing is set in stone. If I like a player at even money, that does not necessarily mean I will like him at -180. As always, use your discretion and bet responsibly.

As a reminder, I am tracking these using bet sizes of 0.4 units on anytime touchdown bets and 0.1 units on first touchdown bets. Whether you play one or all, use your discretion and adjust as you see fit. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify this week’s best bets.

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Best NFL Week 18 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets

All wagers are 0.5 units

NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets

Who will score a touchdown in this week’s NFL Games? The Anytime TD market covers any player who carries or receives the ball into the end zone, not the quarterback who passes the ball. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify today’s best bets. View Anytime Touchdown odds across sportsbooks here.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Ray Davis (RB – BUF)

Anytime TD Odds: TBD
First TD Odds: TBD

As readers of this column throughout the year can tell you, I search many sportsbooks (several of which I cannot play myself) to find the best anytime touchdown and first touchdown pricing. Yet, as of this writing, I cannot find a single anytime touchdown or first touchdown line posted on any players in this game.

Buffalo will rest most of their starters, as they have secured the AFC’s No. 2 seed. In this game, both teams will run the ball a ton and try to get out of dodge as quickly as possible. If Buffalo rests starting running back James Cook, rookie Ray Davis could get a bigger workload. Davis has scored five times this year in limited action, and the Patriots have allowed 19 total touchdowns to opposing running backs this season.

If the sportsbooks do not give us a favorable price on a Davis touchdown, I recommend pivoting to Ty Johnson. Johnson leads all Buffalo running backs with 284 receiving yards out of the backfield. Five of the 19 touchdowns that New England has given up to running backs have been receiving scores. With Mitch Trubisky under center for a majority of the game, I expect a fair amount of safe and easy throws, which could include some dump-offs to Johnson.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

Nico Collins (WR – HOU)

Anytime TD Odds: +185 at DraftKings Sportsbook
First TD Odds: +800 at DraftKings Sportsbook

This pick carries some risk because Houston may not play their starters for the whole game on Sunday. If you want a safer pick, you would be better off taking someone on the Titans. Having said that, the Texans will play their starters to get the taste of last week’s blowout loss to Baltimore out of their mouths. Specifically, that should mean getting quarterback C.J. Stroud in a rhythm.

That should not be too difficult against a Tennessee defense ranked 22nd in DVOA versus the pass. I think Houston will try to put a couple of good drives together so that Stroud feels good about himself heading into next week’s playoff game. Nico Collins has been Stroud’s top target, so I like him to find the end zone early in this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)

Anytime TD Odds: -140 at FanDuel Sportsbook
First TD Odds: +400 at DraftKings Sportsbook

With so much ambiguity surrounding the Week 18 anytime touchdown and first touchdown landscape, I do not want to get too out-of-pocket chasing longshots. Therefore, Colts running back Jonathan Taylor will be my pick in this game. Taylor has scored five times in the last two weeks and now gets a great matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Jacksonville has given up 19 touchdowns to opposing running backs this year. That is tied for second-most in the NFL. Indianapolis will start Joe Flacco at quarterback this week. That should open up the threat of the pass and allow Taylor to operate. As long as there are no restrictions on his workload, I expect Taylor to score at least one touchdown on Sunday.

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

Jayden Daniels (QB – WAS)

Anytime TD Odds: +165 at Caesars Sportsbook
First TD Odds: +900 at DraftKings Sportsbook

The Washington Commanders have clinched a playoff berth but will still play their starters on Sunday. That includes rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who has been running wild recently. Daniels has averaged 76.4 rushing yards in his last five games. That includes Washington’s previous meeting with their Week 18 opponent, the Dallas Cowboys.

In that contest, Daniels ran for 74 yards and a touchdown. Dallas has had problems containing rushing quarterbacks all season long. They have allowed the most rushing touchdowns (nine) and third-most rushing yards (470) to opposing signal-callers this season. Both of those numbers will increase after this game is over. I expect Daniels to run for at least one touchdown in this matchup.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bucky Irving (RB – TB)

Anytime TD Odds: -150 at Bet365
First TD Odds: +425 at Fanatics

There was no loss more tilting for me last week than Bucky Irving. Irving had 190 scrimmage yards against the Carolina Panthers, yet he did not score. A particularly galling sequence saw Irving rush for 34 yards, then catch a 42-yard pass on the next play, where he was tackled at the 1-yard line. Instead of rewarding the rookie running back with a touchdown after netting them 76 yards on two plays, Baker Mayfield threw a pass to Mike Evans for his second touchdown of the game.

Despite the bad beat, I will back Bucky Irving again in Week 18. Tampa Bay needs to win this game to secure the division crown and a home playoff game. They are facing the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. No team has allowed more rushing touchdowns to opposing backs than the Saints. Believe in Irving to score on Sunday.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Adam Thielen (WR – CAR)

Anytime TD Odds: +225 at Bet365
First TD Odds: +1500 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Atlanta finds themselves in a similar situation to Tampa Bay, needing to beat an inferior divisional opponent on Sunday. The difference is that while Bucky Irving’s touchdown pricing is palatable, the same cannot be said for Falcons running back Bijan Robinson. The best anytime touchdown price for Robinson is -240 on ESPN Bet. Do what you want with your money, but I cannot get there myself.

While I do think Atlanta wins, the pricing on Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen presents a buying opportunity. Thielen scored four touchdowns in December, benefiting from improved play out of quarterback Bryce Young. Atlanta has allowed a league-high 21 touchdowns to enemy wideouts this year. This price is too good for me to pass up, so give me Thielen to score another touchdown on Sunday to finish the year strong.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)

Anytime TD Odds: -145 at DraftKings Sportsbook
First TD Odds: +410 at FanDuel Sportsbook

ESPN Bet has a -227 price on an anytime touchdown for Packers running back Josh Jacobs. If that is the best you can do, that is a hard pass for me. Luckily, most people should have access to DraftKings Sportsbook, where we get a much friendlier price. Jacobs has scored in seven straight games, including his last meeting against Chicago.

The Bears have given up 16 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs this year. They trail only New Orleans in that category. Green Bay is also a double-digit favorite in this game, so Jacobs should have plenty of chances to run the football. There are no sure things, of course. But this bet feels like a no-brainer at this price point.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Malik Nabers (WR – NYG)

Anytime TD Odds: +185 at DraftKings Sportsbook
First TD Odds: +850 at DraftKings Sportsbook

The Philadelphia Eagles will likely rest their starters in Week 18. If you still believe that their backups can put up points against the lowly New York Giants, I would not argue against you. The problem is trying to figure out which Eagles would benefit. The best guess may be running back Kenneth Gainwell. But I’m unsure how much action he will see in this game. Therefore, I am going to take Malik Nabers.

As bad as New York’s offense has been, they showed some life last week, scoring 45 points. And Nabers was front and center. The rookie exploded for 171 yards and two touchdowns in the upset victory. If Philadelphia will rest their important players, that also means defensive players. Nabers will be the focal point of New York’s offense on Sunday. He has a great chance to score in this game.

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders

Will Dissly (TE – LAC)

Anytime TD Odds: +390 at Caesars Sportsbook
First TD Odds: +1600 at Caesars Sportsbook

There are a few things to consider regarding this anytime touchdown/first touchdown pick. Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh said his starters will play on Sunday. However, their game might be rendered meaningless depending on what happens on Saturday. In this instance, I am not sold on a primary piece such as running back J.K. Dobbins or wide receiver Ladd McConkey. However, tight end Will Dissly should play regardless of how Los Angeles approaches this game.

Dissly returned last week after missing two games with an injury. He led the team in snaps and has done so for most of the year. The Raiders have allowed the second-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends and eight touchdowns. Only three NFL teams have given up more scores to the position. I like the value we are getting on Dissly here.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

Zach Charbonnet (RB – SEA)

Anytime TD Odds: -119 at Caesars Sportsbook
First TD Odds: +440 at Caesars Sportsbook

This is another instance in which one team (in this case, the Rams) has stated their intention to rest starters. I thought about taking Rams running back Blake Corum. But his pricing is not much better than his counterpart, Zach Charbonnet. And Charbonnet has the benefit of a solid track record this season. Charbonnet has eight touchdowns on just 121 carries this year. He has also caught a touchdown pass.

Charbonnet has earned nine or more touches in six different games this year. He has scored in five of those six games. Now he faces a Rams defense that, even at full strength, has struggled against the run. They rank 20th in DVOA versus the run and 24th against running backs in the passing game. Charbonnet should get plenty of work in this game and have an excellent chance to score.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Tyler Huntley (QB – MIA)

Anytime TD Odds: +290 at FanDuel Sportsbook
First TD Odds: +1300 at Fanatics

Even though starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was out last week, Miami’s offense didn’t miss a beat. The reason was Tyler Huntley. Huntley averaged nearly nine yards per pass attempt while completing 84.6% of his passes. For good measure, he ran for 52 yards and a touchdown. That mobility should suit Huntley well as the Dolphins wrap up their season against the New York Jets.

New York’s defense has not fared well against mobile quarterbacks this year. The Jets have given up eight rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this year. Only Dallas has allowed more. Running back De’Von Achane (+130 to score on DraftKings Sportsbook) is perhaps a safer pick. But he has notoriously struggled without Tagovailoa, so I am pivoting to Huntley based on the matchup.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

Isaac Guerendo (RB – SF)

Anytime TD Odds: +150 at DraftKings Sportsbook
First TD Odds: +850 at DraftKings Sportsbook

The San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals have combined to allow nine rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. Based on that, I do not mind going with Kyler Murray or Joshua Dobbs to rush for a score. However, 49ers’running back Isaac Guerendo is a solid value this week. Guerendo has been the primary ball-carrier for San Francisco in his last three games. He scored twice in those three games while averaging over 100 scrimmage yards.

The Cardinals have allowed the third-most rushing yards and second-most touchdowns to opposing backs over the last four weeks. While the 49ers abandoned the run against the potent Detroit Lions, that should not be the case this week with Dobbs under center against a less explosive opponent. I like Guerendo at plus-money to find the end zone in Week 18.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)

Anytime TD Odds: +140 at FanDuel Sportsbook
First TD Odds: +600 at FanDuel Sportsbook

My final anytime touchdown/first touchdown bet for Week 18 is on Courtland Sutton of the Denver Broncos. Under normal circumstances, this may not be the case. However, the Kansas City Chiefs will rest many relevant players, while Denver needs to win to secure a Wild Card berth. Denver’s best bet is to rely on rookie quarterback Bo Nix and the passing game.

That should mean plenty of opportunities for top target Sutton against a Chiefs team that plays a lot of man coverage. Sutton has scored six times versus man coverage this year, which trails only Ja’Marr Chase. Nix will feed Sutton early and often. The matchup and circumstances are right for Sutton to score on Sunday.