Bahamas Bowl: College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Bets (UAB vs. Miami OH)
Here’s a look at the bowl-game spreads and totals for UAB vs. Miami (OH) with my projections. You can also find my best bets. And here are all of my best bowl game bets for the weekend.
2022: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
Note: Spreads are from the favorite’s perspective. ATL stands for “Adjusted Thor Line.†ATT stands for “Adjusted Thor Total.â€
UAB vs. Miami (OH): College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Bets
Bahamas Bowl | Nassau, NP
Friday, December 16 | 10:30 AM
UAB (-11) vs. Miami (OH) | Total: 44.5
ATL: UAB -11.3 | ATT: 45
UAB
No absences reported
Miami (OH)
QB Brett Gabbert (Uncertain)
OT Ryan O’Hair (Transfer portal)
OG Caleb Shaffer (Transfer portal)
QB1 Gabbert, limited to four games this year due to an upper-body injury, entered the portal after the season but reversed course and returned to Miami. Between that injury and his abrupt change-of-heart, Gabbert’s status for the bowl is unclear and unclarified. QB2 Aveon Smith, who filled in for an injured Gabbert throughout the season, would draw another start if Gabbert can’t go. At publication time, Smith starting is the outcome I expect. OG Shaffer was the team’s best interior offensive lineman. OT O’Hair played only one snap this season.
Coaching news
UAB bypassed interim HC Bryant Vincent – who filled in this season following the sudden retirement of former HC Bill Clark – to hire former NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer as HC. This move upset players, who had advocated the administration to remove Vincent’s interim tag. Hurt feelings aside, for this game, this is a development that probably favors UAB. The Blazers figure to give a spirited effort in Vincent’s swan song. UAB never finished below 6-6 under Clark – his first team finished 6-6 and was bowl eligible but didn’t get selected.
Handicap
Miami QB Aveon Smith played more than double the snaps that QB Brett Gabbert did in the regular season. Smith gained experience, and also turned in a large enough sample size to judge.
Even though Gabbert’s PFF grade dropped from 82.9 last season to 65.0 in this year’s limited sample size – playing with limited practice time and ostensibly through injury – Gabbert still graded out appreciably better than Smith. Smith’s 58.0 grade ranked No. 137 out of 159 qualifiers.
Smith really struggles as a thrower. His 39.9 PFF passing grade ranked No. 155 out of 159 (Gabbert ranked No. 89 in the same category). But Smith is a far better runner. In that area, Smith is dangerous. Smith’s 85.4 PFF run grade ranked No. 4 out of 159 qualifying QBs.
Smith actually led the team in rushing despite taking only two-thirds of the offensive snaps. So assuming Smith is starting again, Miami’s run game will be by degrees more dangerous at the cost of play-called predictability and the neutering of the Redhawks’ aerial attack.
Smith is also more turnover-prone than Gabbert. In 240 dropbacks this season, Smith had 14 turnover-worthy throws. That’s exactly as many as Gabbert had the past two seasons combined over neary 400 dropbacks. Smith’s relative effectiveness can be seen in Miami’s No. 129 SP+ offensive ranking this fall.
Here’s the good news for Miami if Smith is starting: UAB’s pass defense is one of the best in the G5, while UAB’s run defense is shoddy. The Blazers’ run defense ranks No. 105 in success rate. That’s what you’d choose to attack.
The unfortunate thing for Miami is their conventional running game stinks. It features an uninspiring paint-by-numbers RB rotation behind what was an underachieving offensive line. And that line just lost its best run-blocking starter on the interior in OG Caleb Shaffer.
But while the Blazers will get nicked by Smith on scrambles and designed runs, and perhaps cede consistent short gains to the running backs, they aren’t likely to be hurt by much more offered by Miami’s offense.
UAB’s offense this season was about as big of a disappointment as Miami’s defense was a pleasant surprise. But some of UAB’s struggles in that area can be traced to QB Dylan Hopkins’ mid-season injury.
When Hopkins is in the lineup – as he is now – UAB’s passing attack must be respected. And that makes the job of stud RB Dewayne McBride much easier. McBride is No. 3 in PFF grade among running backs. UAB ranked No. 31 in rushing success rate and No. 2 in rushing explosiveness.
Miami counters with a strong run defense that ranks No. 33 in success rate and No. 17 in efficiency. Where UAB can exploit that unit is with home runs – Miami’s run defense ranks No. 104 in explosiveness.
The margins are very close in this one, admittedly. But I’m taking the points with Miami. Miami has the better defense – the second-best defense UAB will have played this year behind LSU – and also the better special teams in this matchup. I don’t like Miami’s offense, but this isn’t a bad matchup with Smith at quarterback.
RedHawks HC Chuck Martin is 3-0 ATS in bowl games and 5-1 ATS over his career in neutral-site games. His teams do a good job of keeping things close against superior competition to give themselves a chance to steal it late.
The pick: Miami (OH) +11
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