Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins Odds & Game Pick (2021)

After a wild weekend of NFL betting action, the second half of the season begins in earnest this Thursday night. Week 10 kicks off with an AFC showdown on Thursday Night Football as the Baltimore Ravens take on the Miami Dolphins. Both teams entered the season with positive expectations. However, only one appears to be trending towards a postseason berth. So it comes as no surprise that the NFL betting odds heavily favor that team ahead of this matchup.

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Details

Opening Lines: Ravens -6.5; O/U 48
Current Lines: Ravens -7.5; O/U 46.5
Location: Hard Rock Stadium - Miami Gardens, FL
Start Time: 8:20 p.m. EDT
TV: FOX, NFL Network
Last Meeting: September 8, 2019 - The Ravens defeated the Dolphins 59-10 in Miami.

Overview

The Ravens pulled off an impressive comeback to topple the Minnesota Vikings in overtime last Sunday. Perhaps Baltimore was a bit slow getting started on the heels of a Week 8 bye. Lamar Jackson overcame two interceptions to finish with 266 yards passing, another 120 rushing, and three touchdowns. Despite the rash of injuries that have hit this Ravens team, they continue to push on. Neither Devonta Freeman nor Le'Veon Bell was signed by an NFL team just before the season. The veteran backfield tandem combined for over 125 yards rushing in Sunday's win. Marquise Brown led all pass-catchers with a 116-yard effort.

In years prior, a 14-point second-half deficit like the one faced on Sunday would have been too much for the Ravens to climb back from. However, the tune has changed in Baltimore this season. Jackson continues to improve as a passer and appears to have gained reliable weapons as well. Rookie wideout Rashod Bateman had another great game against the Vikings. Along with Brown and tight end Mark Andrews, the Ravens suddenly have stout playmakers in the passing game. Defensively, the numerous injuries to the secondary continue to plague the Ravens. Along with one of the NFL's worst pass rushes, it has been a very uncharacteristic year for a typically stout defense. 

It may not have been pretty, but the Dolphins have to be thrilled to have finally put an end to their seven-game losing streak. Sunday's NFL betting matchup against the Houston Texans was much more defensive-minded than many anticipated. A defense that was one of the best at forcing turnovers a season ago came up with four of them to lead the Dolphins to their first win since Week 1. Remarkably, Miami lost the turnover battle by one courtesy of three lost fumbles and a pair of interceptions by backup QB Jacoby Brissett. It was sloppy indeed, but a win is a win for Brian Flores and the Dolphins in what has been a very disappointing season thus far.

Brissett made a start in Week 9 due to a broken finger for Tua Tagovailoa. While he remains a game-time decision for this TNF NFL betting matchup, there does seem to be optimism that Tagovailoa will be back under center against Baltimore. One player that the Dolphins will be without both this week and for at least one more is wideout DeVante Parker. In his recurring absences this season, rookie Jaylen Waddle has emerged as Miami's primary pass-catcher alongside tight-end Mike Gesicki. The opportunity is there for the Dolphins to showcase their young offensive talent in what figures to be an up-tempo affair.

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Trends

• Ravens are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
• The total has gone under in five of the Ravens' last six road games.
• Dolphins are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games.
• Dolphins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games.
• Ravens are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine head-to-head matchups against the Dolphins.

Bottom Line

Fortunately, the injury reports are relatively empty for both sides as far as notable names are concerned. The biggest question mark on the injury front is Tua Tagovailoa. Assuming he plays, we could be in for some offensive fireworks on Thursday night. The Ravens and Dolphins rank first, and 14th in offensive plays run per game, respectively. Add in the fact that both defenses ranking in the bottom eight of the NFL in terms of adjusted efficiency, stops could be hard to come by.

While the initial gut reaction when looking at the spread is to lay the points with Baltimore, bettors are advised to proceed with caution. The Ravens are the clear public side, yet the line has only been adjusted one point. The Dolphins are notorious for putting up a strong fight at home, even when overmatched. The best move here is to bank on another solid performance from Lamar Jackson and the offense by playing the total over.

Pick: Over 46.5

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.