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Bears vs. Seahawks Picks & Player Prop Bets: NFL Week 17 Thursday Night Football

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Even as the holiday hangover lingers, the stakes in the NFL continue to climb, and Week 17 gifts us an intriguing NFC matchup under the Thursday night lights! I'm Andrew Erickson, ready to guide you through every detail of this prime-time battle between the Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks at Solider Field.

I'll provide expert insights on the spread, total, and crucial player props for this key matchup. Whether you're crafting a winning same-game parlay or scouting for the best prop bets, I've got everything you need for this high-stakes NFC battle.

Prepare for a game that promises to entertain both fans and bettors alike. So, grab your holiday treats, settle back, and gear up to place your bets on this Thursday night showdown. Keep an eye out for the full BettingPros Week 17 Primer dropping later this week!

NFL Week 17 Thursday Night Football

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears

Sides:

  • In each of the Seahawks' last four games, the first score has been an opponent touchdown.
  • The Seahawks have lost seven of their last 12 games.
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in four of their last six games.
  • The favorites have won 24 of the Seahawks' last 30 games.
  • The road team has won 10 of the Seahawks' last 11 games.
  • The Seahawks have scored last in each of their last six games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 10 of the Seahawks' last 11 games.
  • The Seahawks have covered the spread in seven of their last 13 games as underdogs.
  • Seattle is 10-16-1 ATS in their last 27 games played (9-13-1 over the last 21 games).
  • Seattle is 12-3 as a favorite in the last 15 games (15-7 over last 22).
  • The Seahawks have scored last in each of their last eight road games.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 12 games as favorites.
  • The Seahawks are 5-6-1 at home as favorites ATS in their last 12 games.
  • Seattle, as a road underdog, is 9-8 ATS (55%). As an away underdogs on the Moneyline, they are 6-11.
  • Seattle is 4-7 as home underdogs overall and ATS.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 home games.
  • The Bears have won eight of their last 12 home games.
  • The Bears have lost each of their last nine games.
  • The home team has covered the spread in 14 of the Bears' last 20 games.
  • The Bears are 12-10-1 ATS and 10-13 straight up in their last 23 games.
  • Opponents have scored first in 14 of the Bears' last 15 games.
  • The Bears have lost the first quarter in nine of their last 10 games.
  • In 14 of the Bears’ last 15 games, their opponents have scored first.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in eight of their last 15 games.
  • The Bears have lost the first half in each of their last eight road games.
  • The Bears have lost 12 of their last 13 road games.
  • The Bears have lost each of their last nine road games.
  • The Bears are 6-13-1 ATS as road underdogs and 6-14-1 ATS overall on the road.
  • The Bears have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six road games.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in five of their last six games as favorites.
  • Chicago is 6-4-1 ATS as a favorite and 1-0 ATS as a road favorite.

Totals:

  • Six of the Seahawks’ last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Seahawks' last 14 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seattle is 4-5 toward the over at home, averaging over 42 points per game.
  • Four of the Seahawks' last five home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Seahawks' last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Seahawks' last 20 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Bears' last 15 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Bears' last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Bears are 13-7-1 under the point total in their last 20 games.
  • The Bears are 4-3 O/U at home, but those games are averaging just 41 points per game (before last week's eruption versus the Lions.
  • Nine of the Bears’ last 10 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

We have the quintessential Spider Man meme when it comes to these two offenses. Two teams that struggle to score points early in games. NFL fans are too familiar with this trend when it comes to the Bears. In 14 of the Bears’ last 15 games, their opponents have scored first. The Bears are 30th in first half points per game this season.

And fading the Bears in the first half last week was the only bet I made in that Lions-Bears game I got right. Two weeks in a row the Bears have failed to cover the spread in the first half.

Seattle hasn't exactly lit up the scoreboard in the first half either though. And they have seemingly been impossible to project in games not against the Arizona Cardinals.

They are now 4-2 straight up and ATS on the back of improved defensive performances. But three of those wins have come against NFC West teams, with the other coming against the New York Jets.

I didn’t consider enough the weight class Seattle was up against when taking on Green Bay two weeks ago. I did consider it last week versus the Vikings, and that held true.

The Seahawks have allowed just two rushing touchdowns since Week 9, compared to nine touchdowns in the first eight weeks of the season. The improvement coincides with the addition of linebacker, Ernest Jones.

According to Next Gen Stats, after allowing the 3rd-most yards per carry (5.2) and most rushing yards over expected (+263) on designed rushes by a wide margin in the first 8 weeks of the season, the Seahawks traded for Jones.

Since joining the team, Jones has played 99.3% of the team's defensive snaps (3rd among Seahawks), and the team has seen their run defense improve to allow the 9th-fewest yards per carry (4.0) and 4th-fewest RYOE (-75) to designed carries in that span. The team has also seen vast improvements in rushing success rate, EPA per carry allowed, and explosive run rate allowed.

Their defense overall has played better since their bye week, especially against lesser offenses.

Seattle is tougher to trust against better teams, but it's pretty clear that the Bears aren't contending for anything. Seattle is often overrated at home anyway, so I think there's some more value on the number here playing in Chicago, where the Bears have played much better compared to the road.

Favorites and road teams tend to prevail in Seahawks' games, giving the edge to the Hawks.

Seattle has won 12 of their last 15 games as favorites.

Regardless, I think I want to approach this game similarly to the last two Bears matchups: Take the Seattle -2.5 first half spread. Keep in mind that the Bears lost two offensive linemen last week.

Props:

Geno Smith is under 34.5 pass attempts in seven of his last nine games. Given how atrocious the Bears run defense(third-most rushing yards allowed the last four weeks), it is easy to see Seattle leaning on their ground game in Week 17.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Bears defense has struggled since firing Matt Eberflus, allowing a 50.8% success rate since Week 14 (2nd-highest), compared to a 41.3% success rate through the first 13 weeks of the season (10th-lowest).

Specifically, the Bears have dropped their man coverage rate and allowed a higher missed tackle rate since firing Eberflus.

Keenan Allen has averaged a full yard more per route since Thomas Brown took over as Offensive Coordinator in Week 11. Additionally, Allen has been targeted at a higher rate over that period of time (Next Gen Stats).

Over the last six games, Allen has led the team in targets (62, 30%), yards (453) and TDs (5).

Allen was the top receiver in Week 16, with 13 targets (two in the red zone, 35% Target share), nine catches, 141 yards, and one touchdown, with a longest reception of 45 yards. He also led the Bears in air yards (124). As a result, Allen has gone over 59.5 yards in four of his last five games.

D.J Moore has gone over 5.5 catches in every single game since Thomas Brown took over as the Bears play caller. He is the piece to play in parlays and pick ’em splits given how consistent he has been for this number. I also like his TD props this week. He only has two TDs since Week 6, despite crazy volume. He also had four red-zone targets last week. Interestingly enough, he trails only Swift in total red-zone touches for both teams in this matchup.

D'Andre Swift has a brutal matchup versus the Seahawks' improved run defense. He has rushed for more than 60 rushing yards twice in his last eight games played. And just once in games with Roschon Johnson active since Week 11.

Swift is 7-2 toward the rushing prop under when the Bears have been underdogs this season, so I am slamming the under on his prop.

Seattle has allowed receiving prop overs to three of the last four tight ends they have faced since their bye.

My Picks:

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