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Bengals vs. Ravens Picks & Best Player Prop Bets: NFL Week 10 Thursday Night Football

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Welcome to November, as we dive into the second half of the NFL season with a crisp, fall-inspired Week 10 breakdown! I’m Andrew Erickson, ready to guide you through this prime-time Thursday night matchup between two fierce AFC North rivals-the Cincinnati Bengals and the Baltimore Ravens. The air is cooler, the stakes are higher, and both teams are hungry to solidify their playoff paths as the leaves continue to fall.

This week, the Bengals travel to Baltimore for a clash that promises hard-hitting action and playoff implications in the heart of the autumn season. With division pride and positioning on the line, expect an intense, strategic battle. The Ravens have soared to the top of the AFC standings, while the Bengals are clawing their way back after a rocky start. Under the November night sky, Thursday Night Football is sure to bring fans a thriller worthy of the season.

From expert insights on the spread and total to a close look at standout player props, I’ll lead you through every key betting angle for this pivotal showdown. Whether you’re crafting the perfect single-game parlay or looking to pick the best prop bets, I’ve got you covered for this high-stakes AFC North face-off.

This is just a taste of what’s to come when the FULL BettingPros Week 10 Primer drops later this week. So grab your warm blankets, gather your lucky charms, and prepare to place your bets on this autumn showdown between the Bengals and Ravens. Don’t miss out on one of the season’s most exciting Thursday Night Football matchups!

Best Bets for Week 10 Thursday Night Football

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Sides:

  • Joe Burrow is 18-5 against the spread following a loss. Joey Covers.
  • The Bengals are 14-6 ATS on the road.
  • The Bengals have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games against teams with losing records.
  • The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games against AFC North opponents.
  • The Bengals have won 14 of their last 21 home games.
  • The Bengals are 10-7-1 ATS as home favorites and 13-7 straight up at home.
  • The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in the last four of their last five home games.
  • In six of the Bengals' last seven games, the first score has been a Bengals Touchdown.
  • The Ravens have covered the spread in each of their last five games against the Bengals.
  • The Ravens have covered the spread in five of their last seven games.
  • Baltimore is 14-6 on the money line as home favorites but just 9-11 ATS as home favorites.
  • Baltimore is 14-5 ATS on the road in the last two seasons and 10-4 ATS as a road favorite in their last 14 applicable appearances.

Totals:

  • Six of the Bengals' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Bengals' last 12 games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Bengals' last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line
  • Seven of the Bengals' last eight home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Each of the last five games between the Ravens and Bengals has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Most of the 2023 Ravens games that went over came at home (nine of their last 12), but they tended to be against better offenses.
  • The Ravens are 8-1 toward the over this season.
  • Eight of the Ravens’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The lowest total game they've played in this season has been 45 points.
  • The Ravens have gone OVER in 11 of the last 14 games (11 of the previous 16).
  • Each of the Ravens' last five road games has gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

The Bengals aren't usually the best bet to support as road underdogs on the moneyline or underdogs on the moneyline. 3-5 ATS (38%) as away underdogs and 4-7 as straight-up underdogs.

But they've been better at covering the spread in these spots. 14-6 ATS on the road and 5-3 (58%) as road underdogs against the number. They've been underdogs only twice this season (against Baltimore and KC), covering both games.

In this same matchup back in Week 5, the Bengals were just +2.5-point home underdogs. They lost by three points in overtime. They had a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter and missed a 53-yard field goal in overtime. Derrick Henry sealed the game on a 51-yard rush on the next play. Had it not been for that rush in overtime, the Bengals defense would have held Henry to just 41 yards on 14 carries, by far season-lows. Cincy’s run defense has improved with healthy bodies on their defensive line. In fact, according to Next Gen Stats, the Bengals have allowed a 9.0% explosive run rate this season, which is the 4th-lowest in the league. The Bengals have also allowed the 4th-fewest yards before contact per carry (1.1) and have contacted rushers behind the line of scrimmage on 44.2% of carries in 2024 (4th-highest). Teams move the chains on Cincy through the run game but don’t necessarily rip off massive plays. And that’s through the air/ground. The Bengals have allowed an 11.7% explosive play rate this season (4th-lowest in the NFL via Next Gen Stats).

When these lines first opened up, I was shocked at how big this spread favored the Ravens. It wasn't that long ago that we saw these teams play down to the wire.

The last three games between Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow have all been by less than three points, while the Bengals went 1-2 overall (3-0 ATS).

As I wrote up this matchup back in Week 5, we know that in marquee matchups, the Ravens are going to bring the heat. As for the Bengals, we know that their offense will show up against a Ravens defense that has yet to hit its stride this season. Per Next Gen Stats, the Ravens have allowed 65 completions on passes of 10+ air yards this season, the most in the NFL. The Ravens have allowed +60.2 EPA (2nd-most) and a 55.1% completion percentage (5th-highest) on such passes in 2024. They allow explosive pass plays but not explosive rushes. They don’t generate pressure, and that will be an issue against Joe Burrow.

However, I am concerned about if they can pull off the upset without Tee Higgins. As I've pointed out in my FantasyPros Fantasy Football Forecast for Week 10, Ja'Marr Chase STILL doesn't have a game with more than 62 receiving yards without Higgins this season. Not to say he won't pop off without Higgins eventually (see the Arizona matchup from last season), but I'd much rather have Higgins active if I am thinking about betting on an upset for the Bengals.

According to Next Gen Stats, Chase went in motion on 13.8% of snaps in Week 5 against the Ravens and was targeted on a season-high 62.5% of his routes in motion.

Chase recorded 109 receiving yards in motion in Week 5, the most receiving yards in motion in a game over the last two seasons.
In two of the four games without Higgins, the Bengals have scored fewer than 20 points.

Instead, I'll just follow the trends with Bengals +6.5 and not sweat the game from a W/L perspective.

My BettingPros projections have this game closer to +3.5, based on what we have seen in the past when these two QBs go head-to-head.

As for the total, the trends are so heavy toward the over. But the total is maxed out at 52.5 points. Usually, in these situations, I shy away, but I do think it's interesting that totals that have closed at 52.5 are 19-18 toward the over since 2003, per BetIQ. Essentially, it’s a coin flip with this total. Do with that what you will. We liked the over at 48.5 points when these teams played earlier this season. But if the Ravens don’t make the explosive plays and grind it out with Henry, well you can see how this game goes under the total.

Note that the Ravens look like they won't have tight-end Isaiah Likely available in this game. Ravens running back Keaton Mitchell will have a chance to play after suffering a season-ending knee injury late last season.

Props:

Mark Andrews has scored at least one touchdown in three of the Ravens’ last four games. Likely leads the Ravens in red-zone targets (seven) this season. The Bengals have faced the third-most red-zone targets to TEs this season (sixth in receiving yards). The last seven tight ends the Bengals have faced this season have gone OVER their reception prop. Andrews had four catches for 55 yards against the Bengals earlier this season. After a slow start, I like Andrews a lot in this matchup. And to be fair, the slow start is not all his fault.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Ravens have helped out their offensive line by keeping their backs and tight ends in protection more often than any other offense.
The Ravens players aligned in the backfield or tight have stayed in pass protection on 37.0% of their pass snaps this season, the highest rate in the NFL.

The Bengals have been the worst defense against No. 2 WRs this season, allowing the most targets to the position.

Therefore, I want to be aggressive with Diontae Johnson. He has already played the Bengals this season as a member of the Panthers, going seven of 13 for 83 yards and a touchdown. He has had another week in the Ravens system that will be without one of their key contributors. Johnson, anytime TD (+290). He leads all WRs in targets inside the 10-yard line this season.

Given the Ravens have a bunch of "No.2" WRs, I also like buying low on Rashod Bateman. Bateman also ran a route on 74% of dropbacks last week as his snaps did not see a reduction with Johnson added.

He is a big-play threat and can go over his receiving yards prop on one play. He should see volume, given the matchup. And last week was the first time Bateman didn't exceed at least 28 yards when he caught at least two passes. Bateman would be on a streak of five straight overs had it not been for drops the last two games. BUY LOW.

Tight end Mike Gesicki was the standout receiver for the Bengals last week, catching five of his six targets for 100 yards and two touchdowns, averaging an impressive 20 yards per catch with a long reception of 47 yards, generating 48 yards after the catch-78 air yards, 37.32% air yards share, 16.22% target share. Gesicki ran a route on 58.5% of dropbacks.

With Higgins likely out on Thursday night, the matchup against the Ravens is one of the best for the Bengals’ TE, with the third-most yards allowed to tight ends this season. Gesicki could also see an uptick in snaps with tight end Erick All Jr. placed on IR.

In Gesicki’s last three games without Higgins, Gesicki has a 21% target share and stat line of 19-264-2 (88 yards per game, 6.3 receptions per game).

Per Next Gen Stats, Gesicki has caught 22 of his 27 targets for 282 yards and two touchdowns when Tee Higgins has been inactive this season, recording a 33.3% target rate, 11.3% higher than his target rate with Higgins active.

My BettingPros four-leg recommended same-game parlay using the NFL Same Game Parlay Builder:

My Picks:

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