Best 2022 NFL Futures Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions (Week 3)
With two weeks of data on teams, we can start moving slightly off our preseason priors. It’s still important to acknowledge that we are still only working on two weeks of football, a sport where wild things can happen, as we saw three 20-point comebacks this week. (Each team had less than a 2% win probability as one point.)
Entering Week 3, I have a bet on a young, rising team and a bet against one that desperately needs to blow things up.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South (+300)
I liked the Jags as a long-shot bet to win the division early in the offseason. Back then, it was possible to lay +1200 odds on Jacksonville to take the AFC South crown. After two weeks of play, the Jaguars’ odds are at +300, I still like it.
It’s tough to find a pair of teams who have had more disappointing starts to the season than the Titans and Colts. These two teams are the Jaguars’ only (sorry, Texans fans) competition in the division, and we just saw them absolutely dominate one of them. The thesis backing this Jacksonville team before the season was that with competence at head coach, an improvement from Trevor Lawrence, and a boatload of money spent to improve the roster, this could be a decent team. So far, that has come to fruition.
Trevor Lawrence’s best game of his career was last week against the Colts. Through two weeks, he ranks 15th in PFF grade, 14th in yards per attempt, sixth in EPA/play, third in CPOE (completion percentage over expectation), and has had just two turnover-worthy plays. After a very disappointing rookie season, Lawrence already looks like an average to a good quarterback, which is what we expected him to be coming out of Clemson.
The roster around Lawrence has also improved. The Christian Kirk contract was a hefty overpay, but he’s been great so far this year! Among wide receivers, he is 7th in the league in receiving yards, ranks 17th in PFF grade, and he had two touchdowns last week against the Colts. James Robinson’s return and Trevor Etienne’s explosiveness have given Jacksonville a great duo in the backfield, and the offensive line has been fine, not bad! The thing that is really encouraging for this team is the defense. Josh Allen has been outstanding through two games, and No. 1 overall pick, Travon Walker, has made an immediate impact. Fellow rookie Devin Lloyd has also been great so far, and with some solid secondary play, the Jaguars rank 4th in EPA allowed/play and 2nd in success rate.
I know it’s just two games, but it’s been an encouraging two games for a team that wasn’t expected to be good anytime soon. Don’t expect the Jaguars to go out and win ten games, but they might only need eight to win this division. My AFC South projections have the Colts at 7.6 wins, Jaguars at 7.3, the Titans at 7.0, and the Texans at 4.3. I like the Jaguars at +300 to win the division, and you could also look into betting them to beat their current win total of 6.5 wins.
Get a FREE 1 year upgrade to BettingPros Premium >>
Carolina Panthers under 6.5 wins (-110)
This bet could be tricky to find. I found this gem while scrolling through the Bovada win totals and was shocked. On DraftKings and FanDuel, this number is at 5.5, +100 to the under! I project Carolina to win 5.3 games so getting this at under 6.5 is a blessing.
As for the team itself, they’ve had two close losses, but to bad teams… and the offense looks putrid. Baker Mayfield ranks 32nd out of 34 quarterbacks in PFF grade and 31st out of 33 in EPA+CPOE. If he doesn’t improve, this could be one of the worst teams in the league. The only thing saving this team from the league cellar is its defense, which was expected to be a good unit entering the year and has lived up to the billing. Their defense can put them in games, but in this league, the offense wins them. Unless Baker Mayfield improves and becomes the player we saw two years ago, it’s going to be hard for a defense that is good, but nothing special, to win games. Oh, and I didn’t even mention that this team is coached by Matt Rhule, the rightful favorite for the first coach to be fired…
Shop around for this number, but if you can’t find anything close to this, I’d probably stay away.
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by players with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.