Best 2022 NFL Futures Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions (Week 4)
After three weeks, we have some additional picks and predictions for NFL Futures Bets.
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Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC West (-120)
The AFC West was expected to be the most feared and competitive division in the league. Mahomes, Herbert, Wilson, and Carr, surrounded by good to great rosters, made this division easily the strongest in the league entering the season. So far, it’s pretty clear that none of these teams have met expectations.
Not much needs to be said about the Raiders. They are 0-3, and the Josh McDaniels era is off to a brutal start. With such a tough schedule, I project them for a measly 6.5 wins this season.
Denver finally got the franchise quarterback they had been chasing and paired him with an offensive-minded head coach, but it’s been the defense keeping the Broncos afloat. Denver has yet to score multiple touchdowns or reach 20 points in a game. They rank 13th in EPA/play but just 29th in success rate. They’ve had some bad luck in the red zone, which will regress, but this is an offense that is still struggling to move the football. That will also become a problem for the preseason co-favorite in the NFC West.
The outlook on the Chargers’ offense for the rest of the season is much bleaker after an injury to Rashawn Slater, a massive loss for their offensive line. Justin Herbert is also battling injury, and Keenan Allen, an aging player and key weapon, is dealing with a hamstring issue. The defense has also been disappointing after getting shredded by the Jaguars last week, Joey Bosa was placed on injured reserve, and J.C. Jackson was declared out for a few weeks. After much hype and hope for the teams in this division, it looks like a one-horse race.
With their division foes faltering, the Chiefs have remained steady. Yes, they had a bad loss to the Colts, but they should have won that game. It took a muffed punt, missed field goal, and a botched field goal for Indianapolis to sneak that game away from Kansas City. The Chiefs are still the best team in this division and a top-three team in the league. After losing Tyreek Hill, we expected this offense to start slow as Mahomes built chemistry with his new weapons and found a new way to attack defenses. While it may not seem like it, the Chiefs’ offense has actually gotten off to a hot start as they rank 2nd in EPA/play and 4th in success rate, and that should only get better as the season progresses.
After injuries, slow starts, and coaching mishaps, the AFC West looks mortal compared to what we expected entering the season. That leaves the Chiefs as the clear best team and favorite in this division. I project Kansas City for 11.8 wins, Los Angeles for 9.1, Denver for 8.7, and Las Vegas for 6.5. At -120, I like Kansas City to repeat as AFC West champions.
Josh Allen to win Defensive Player of the Year (+10000)
This is the longest of all long-shot bets I’ve given out in a futures article, but I think there is some real value on Allen at this price. After being drafted 7th overall in 2019, Allen has had a promising start to his career. He’s been a solid player on a bad Jaguars defense through three years. In year four, Allen has fully broken out, stepping into the national spotlight, and he’s bringing the Jacksonville defense with him.
The Jaguars have been a pleasant surprise through three weeks. Their defense has been outstanding through three games. They rank eighth in PFF team-defense grade, third in EPA/play allowed, and second in success rate against. They are also 4th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA (defensive-adjusted value over average). Josh Allen has propelled this dominance. He currently ranks sixth among edge defenders in PFF grade (eighth among all defenders), third in pressures (16), second in quarterback hits (6), seventh in hurries (8), and is tied for ninth in ESPN’s pass rush win rate (24%). The only issue in his statistical profile, so far, is sacks. Sack production is noisy, the variance surrounding sack totals makes it a stat that isn’t a reliable indicator of future production. When you look at Allen’s statistical profile, he’s high in pressure, hits, hurries, and wins as a pass rusher a lot. Those are the things that will lead to sacks. Allen already has two sacks on the season, which is tied for the 20th in the league, but I expect more to come.
Some of the issues with Allen’s case for DPOY are that the competition is incredibly tough, with Micah Parsons, Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, Nick Bosa, and Von Miller as clear frontrunners for the award. Jacksonville is also a team with just bad vibes. They’ve sucked for forever, so voters who aren’t paying attention aren’t going to look at a pass rusher from the Jaguars and give him their vote. Another issue is first-round pick Travon Walker and defensive rookie of the year candidate Devin Lloyd. Those two players arriving in Jacksonville correlate with the team’s rise to success, so they may earn more of the credit.
With all these things under consideration, I think +10000 is too long of odds. Allen has been one of the best defenders in the league this season, and while there are plenty of obstacles in the way for him to actually win this award, that’s why his implied odds of winning it are just 1%. In futures markets, especially awards, make sure you shop around, as you’ll see Allen listed anywhere from +5000 to +10000. Make sure you are getting the best odds available to you to maximize the expected value.
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